Happy Black Friday! Today we have a loaded College Football slate on tap with 14-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 10-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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12 p.m. ET: Navy at East Carolina (-2.5, 55.5)

Navy (7-3) has lost three of their last four games and just got crushed by Tulane 35-0, failing to cover as 7.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, East Carolina (7-4) is riding a four-game win streak and just took down North Texas 40-28, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with some shops even opening Navy listed as a short 1-point road favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even ticket count we’ve seen the line move to East Carolina -2.5 at home. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no reason to adjust the price. So, we know based on the line move that pro money has sided with the home team. East Carolina is only receiving 52% of spread bets but a whopping 80% of spread dollars at DraftKings, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. At Circa Sports, East Carolina is receiving 71% of spread bets but 95% of spread dollars, another wiseguy discrepancy. Those looking to follow the sharp move but also wary of laying points in what might be a close game could instead elect to play East Carolina on the moneyline (-135). East Carolina is receiving 47% of moneyline bets but 62% of moneyline dollars at DraftKings, further evidence of smart money banking on ECU to win the game straight up.

12 p.m. ET: Minnesota (-1, 40.5) at Wisconsin

Minnesota (6-5) has dropped two straight but just hung tough with Penn State, losing 26-25 but covering as 12-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Wisconsin (5-6) has lost four straight and just got rolled by Nebraska 44-25, failing to cover as 1.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Wisconsin listed as a 2-point home favorite. The public is happy to play Wisconsin at home, who is fighting for bowl eligibility. However, despite 62% of spread bets taking Wisconsin at DraftKings, we’ve seen this line flip to Minnesota -1 on the road. This signals sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of Minnesota, as the line has moved toward the Golden Gophers despite being the unpopular play. At Circa Sports, Minnesota is taking in 41% of spread bets but 85% of spread dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper pro wagers backing the road team. The Golden Gophers have the better offense (26.5 PPG vs 24 PPG) and stingier defense (allowing 18.5 PPG vs 23 PPG). Sharps are also expecting a lower scoring game, as the total has been steamed down from 44 to 40.5. The under is only receiving 25% of bets but 52% of dollars at DraftKings, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Weather could play a factor here, as the forecast calls for low 20s with 15 MPH winds, making this a “windy under” system match. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more, the under is roughly 55% over the past decade.

4 p.m. ET: Stanford at San Jose State (-2.5, 54.5)

Stanford (3-8) has dropped seven of their last eight games and just came up short against California 24-21 but managed to cover as 15-point road dogs. Similarly, San Jose State (6-5) has lost three of their last four games and just fell to UNLV 27-16, failing to cover as 7.5-point home dogs. This line opened with San Jose State listed as low as a pick’em. Sharps and public bettors have both sided with the home team, steaming San Jose State up for -2.5. San Jose State is receiving 67% of spread bets and 74% of spread dollars at DraftKings. At Circa, San Jose State is receiving 80% of spread bets and 94% of spread dollars. In both instances, the Spartans are taking in “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe support. Those looking to mitigate some risk around a key number could instead play San Jose State on the moneyline at -135. At DraftKings, San Jose State is taking in 68% of moneyline bets but 83% of moneyline dollars. Stanford is just 1-4 on the road this season. San Jose State is 4-2 at home. The Spartans have the superior offense (26.9 PPG vs 22.1 PPG) and better defense (allowing 26 PPG vs 33.6 PPG).

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