Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Monday’s MLB slate…
6:40 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (-145, 8) at Miami Marlins
The Astros (68-51) just took two of three from the Angels but lost Sunday’s series finale 2-1, failing to cash as -140 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Marlins (62-57) just took two of three from the Yankees, winning 8-7 yesterday as +105 home dogs. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Astros hand the ball to lefty Framber Valdez (9-7, 3.30 ERA) and the Marlins counter with fellow southpaw Braxton Garrett (6-3, 4.08 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a -130 road favorite and Miami a +120 home dog. Sharps have laid the modest chalk with the Astros, steaming Houston up from -130 to -145. The Astros are receiving 76% of bets and 85% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both public and sharp support. Sweet spot short road favorites -120 to -150 are 170-111 (61%) this season with a 6% ROI. Road Interleague favorites are 108-72 (60%) with a 3% ROI. Houston also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team. The Astros are 21-13 (62%) against lefties this season. The Marlins are just 14-16 (47%) against lefties. Garrett has a 5.40 ERA at home compared to 2.68 on the road. Houston has a +17 bullpen rating compared to 0 for Miami.
8:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers (-175, 9)
The Angels (59-60) just dropped two of three at the Astros but won yesterday’s series finale 2-1, cashing as +125 road dogs. On the flip side, the Rangers (70-48) just took two of three at the Giants but lost 3-2 yesterday as +110 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Angels go with lefty Patrick Sandoval (6-8, 3.86 ERA) and the Rangers send out righty Max Scherzer (11-4, 3.88 ERA). This line opened with Texas listed as a -165 home favorite and Los Angeles a +150 road dog. Pros are backing Texas at home with their newly acquired ace on the mound, steaming the Rangers up from -165 to -175. Texas is receiving 78% of bets and 86% of money, indicating a mix of both Pro and Joe support. Monday home favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 27-16 (63%) this season. The Rangers have a substantial edge at the plate, hitting .271 vs .256 for the Angels. The Rangers are 51-30 as a favorite, 21-12 against lefties and 40-20 at home, tied with the Rays for the best home record in MLB. Scherzer is 2-0 with Texas, giving up just four runs over 13 innings against the White Sox (5-3 win) and Athletics (6-1 win). The Rangers also have the better bullpen (+2 vs -12).
