Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Wednesday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Wednesday’s MLB slate…
8:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at San Diego Padres (-175, 8.5)
The Padres (40-46) have taken the first two games of this Interleague series, winning the opener 10-3 as -200 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 8-5 as -150 home favorites. In tonight’s series finale, the Angels (45-43) hand the ball to lefty Patrick Sandoval (4-7, 4.57 ERA) and the Padres counter with righty Seth Lugo (3-4, 3.59 ERA). This line opened with San Diego listed as a -170 home favorite and Los Angeles a +145 road dog. Sharps have gotten down on the Padres to complete the sweep, steaming San Diego up from -170 to -175. The Padres are receiving 72% of bets but 91% of money, signaling modest public support but also heavy sharp action. Interleague favorites off a win are 126-72 (64%) with a 5% ROI this season. Sandoval posted a 7.11 ERA in five June starts. The Angels are just 1-7 in Sandoval’s last eight starts. Lugo had a 2.25 ERA in three June starts. Los Angeles will be without star outfielder Mike Trout, who was placed on the IL with a wrist injury. Pros have also leaned under, as the total opened at 9 and has fallen to 8.5. The Padres are 48-31 (61%) to the under this season, the best under team in MLB.
9:40 p.m. ET: New York Mets (-115, 9.5) at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Mets (39-46) won Tuesday’s series opener 8-5, taking care of business as -150 road favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Mets turn to righty Kodai Senga (6-5, 3.53 ERA) and the Diamondbacks (50-36) go with lefty Tommy Henry (5-1, 4.08 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -120 road favorite and Arizona a +110 home dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know which side to take. However, despite this even ticket count we’ve seen the Mets fall from -120 to -115. This signals smart money grabbing the Diamondbacks as a short home dog (+110 to +100). Arizona is receiving 50% of bets but 66% of money, a notable sharp bet discrepancy. The Diamondbacks are 21-14 (60%) after a loss this season. Arizona has a big edge at the plate, hitting .261 compared to .240 for New York. The Snakes are 23-22 as a dog, 36-24 against righties and 24-21 at home. The Mets are 29-16 as a favorite, 9-19 against lefties and 19-27 on the road. Arizona also has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9.5), as the more expected runs scored leads to more variance and upset opportunities. The Snakes are 6-0 in Henry’s last six starts.
