NFL preseason betting concepts for 2023
Betting the preseason is an altogether different challenge than the regular season. The goals teams share in these contests are never the same. In any given exhibition tilt, one of the teams may be playing to win and build momentum, while the other may be simply hoping to get through unscathed. If you go through the recent game logs of teams, you’ll see that certain coaches seem to believe in different preseason playing strategies. Nevertheless, in any grouping of games that provide enough data, I am always able to pull out worthwhile nuggets that bettors can use to their advantage.
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Using some foundation principles as the basis for them, take a look at eight different betting concepts I was able to uncover after analyzing my preseason database from over the last decade or so, plus some of the top team-by-team situational trends that will be in play for the next few weeks.
All of these angles will be tracked and qualified on a week-to-week basis this NFL preseason in our upcoming VSiN Analytics NFL Preseason reports.
Line ranges have proven very telling
Oddsmakers have essentially led bettors to water in the preseason, although it is easy to see how these prices can seem tricky to bettors. Since 2010, there have been 11 teams that have been favored by more than 7 points. Eight of these heavy favorites won their games outright. However, they were 3-8 ATS. At the same time, favorites in the “sweet spot” range of -3.5 to -7 have been quite reliable, going 130-100-4 ATS for 56.5%. Most games, however, tend to land in the -1 to -3 range, and those contests are where the underdogs THRIVE. Since 2015, underdogs in the +1 to +3 range own a highly profitable record of 149-102 ATS, good for 59.4%!
Home-field advantage usually means very little in tight-lined games
In looking at the home/road results of the last 11 NFL preseasons, there have been only two years where home teams finished with a record of better than .500 ATS, including last year, the most profitable at 28-17 ATS. If you’re simply guessing on these games, or wagering them for fun, side with the road teams, as the points given to hosts by oddsmakers for their “home-field advantage” tend to tip the ATS ledger to the visitors. In fact, since 2011, road teams own a 343-307 ATS edge, good for 52.8%, and essentially enough to make a reasonable profit. However, the absolute best time to back road teams is in spots where they are underdogs of 2.5 points or less, as they have gone 69-35 ATS as such since 2015, good for 66.3%!
“37” is a magic number for totals
Since 2010 in the NFL preseason, the number 37 has proven to be quite the benchmark in terms of totals. Totals less than 37 have gone Over at a rate of 58.4% (269-192), while those 37 or higher have gone Under at a 56.9% clip (512-387). Take away the regular occurrence of Unders in the HOF game, and that first trend is even greater.
Big wins have a carryover effect
NFL teams coming off preseason wins of 20+ points and favored are on a 21-5 SU & 16-8-2 ATS (66.7%) surge since 2013. Most bettors tend to favor a yin-yang strategy in the preseason, assuming that the scales balance out, but in truth, big wins have provided big momentum for the next game as well.
Teams off double-digit losses are bad bets at home, good on the road
Double-digit games are noteworthy indicators of the potential performance of the losing team in the follow-up game. When these teams have played at home the following week, they have gone just 33-46 ATS (41.8%) since 2013. When they faced their next contest on the road, they performed well, 46-38 ATS (54.8%) in that same time span. This 13% variance is something you are going to want to give consideration to in the final two weeks of this year’s preseason.
Teams that scored very well last game tend to come back down to earth
Offensive outbursts one week don’t tend to carry over to the next game in the preseason, as teams that scored 34 points or more in their previous exhibition game have gone just 10-14 SU and 9-14-1 ATS (39.1%) since 2015 (also 15-9 Under). None of these 24 teams reached 30 again either.
Teams that didn’t score well at all are good Over bets the next game
Struggling offenses tend to bounce back well in the next outing of the preseason as teams that were held to fewer than 10 points in their previous preseason contest have gone 73-55-1 Over the total (57%) in the next game since 2010. These teams average 20.2 PPG in the next contest while giving up 21.0.
Fade home teams that had huge defensive efforts last time out
Teams playing at home after allowing seven points or fewer in their previous preseason game are just 18-27 SU and 15-28-2 ATS (34.9%) since 2010. Their average points allowed in the follow-up contest balloons to 20.5 PPG, a lofty total by preseason standards.
Team Situational Trends
Overall Trends
