NFL Week 13 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Wes Reynolds:

Here are my NFL Week 13 best bets:

 

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Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons (+1.5; 47.5)

The Chargers had their four-game winning streak snapped last Monday night against Baltimore, but they started to come back to earth a little the week prior with late heroics to beat Cincinnati.

While Jim Harbaugh and Jesse Minter have dramatically improved this Chargers defense, the ‘Bolts” have feasted on some weak offenses. Four of their seven victories are against offenses that rank in the bottom five of defensive DVOA (Cleveland 32nd, Las Vegas 30th, Carolina 29th, Tennessee 28th). They also got to face New Orleans with Spencer Rattler starting at QB and Denver with Bo Nix in just his fifth career start.

This week, the Chargers face a Top 10 offense with Atlanta, who is a hungry team off a bye after losing two straight. Kirk Cousins should be able to find big plays against the Chargers zone and a defense that ranks bottom four in pressure rate, while Justin Herbert should be able to do the same as Atlanta right there with the Chargers at the bottom in pressure rate.

NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons +1.5; Over 47.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (+6; 46.5)

Tampa Bay ended a four-game losing streak off the bye last week with a 30-7 win over the Giants. Now they lay the same number (-6) at Carolina, a team that is showing fight, unlike the corpse of the Giants. They have won two of their last three games and took the Chiefs to the limit last week before Kansas City escaped with a three-point victory.

Bryce Young is starting to trend up ranking fifth in PFF’s big-time throw metric since Week 8. Last week, he posted a career-high 82.8 PFF passing grade and finished with a career-high five big-time throws to just one turnover-worthy play. Young went 11-for-14 for 123 yards vs. Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo’s blitz.

Carolina head coach and former Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales gets his first crack at his former team, and he is well-versed with the Todd Bowles defense, having seen it every day in practice.

The Bucs laying the same number against the Panthers as they were against the Giants is just a bit too high.

NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Carolina Panthers +6

BEST OF THE REST

Titans +6 at Commanders
Bengals -150 ML vs. Steelers
Patriots +8.5/Saints +9.5 (6-point teaser)
Eagles/Ravens UN 24.5 1st Half

For more NFL Week 13 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 13 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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