Week 13 NFL Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Matt Youmans:

Bad teams find ways to lose games, and the Bears and Raiders reminded everyone of that with their Thanksgiving week misadventures. The good news for ‘dog players is Chicago and Las Vegas each covered big numbers in losses to Detroit and Kansas City, respectively. The best news for the Bears was the Friday firing of coach Matt Eberflus, who has been a clueless loser for a long time and should have been fired a year ago.

Eberflus finished with a 14-32 as Chicago’s coach, including 2-13 against NFC North opponents and 3-19 on the road. When the Bears needed to make a bold run at Jim Harbaugh last offseason, they instead did nothing and allowed the Chargers to hire Harbaugh, who is changing the culture of the organization. The Chargers are 7-4 and likely headed for the playoffs. The Bears have lost six straight to fall to 4-8 and remain a dysfunctional organization.

 

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As a handicapper who plays mostly underdogs, I try to avoid the worst teams on the board, something that’s difficult to do when working with limited NFL schedules. I’m changing the game plan this weekend and laying it with a season-high three favorites. With 12 games remaining, here are my five best bets for NFL Week 13:

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

Joe Burrow is lighting it up, passing for 27 touchdowns with four interceptions, yet Cincinnati is 4-7 and going nowhere. The Bengals’ biggest problem is their defense, which is weak against the run while surrendering 26.9 ppg. With running backs Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris, Pittsburgh can punish defenses on the ground and ranks No. 8 in the league (135.2 yards per game). The Steelers also rank No. 4 in run defense (90.3 ypg). I prefer teams that run the ball and stop the run, and I always prefer betting on coach Mike Tomlin in the underdog role.

Week 13 NFL Best Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers +3

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at New England Patriots

The Indianapolis offensive line is breaking down, which is why Jonathan Taylor averaged only 46 yards rushing in the past two games. If the Colts can’t run the ball, they are not going to win on the strength of quarterback Anthony Richardson’s erratic arm. Richardson has completed 47 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and seven interceptions. While rookie quarterback Drake Maye is making me a believer in his talent and upside, I’m not a big fan of the New England coaching staff. The Patriots can win this game if they pound away at a Colts run defense that ranks 27th by allowing 142.6 ypg. I’m not betting this ugly ‘dog unless +3 shows on Sunday morning, and some books are trending in that direction.

Week 13 NFL Best Bet: New England Patriots +3 (-135)

Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens (-3)

Saquon Barkley is running into the MVP debate by leading the league with 1,392 rushing yards, including 255 yards and two touchdowns in the Eagles’ blowout victory over the Rams last week. Philadelphia (9-2) has displayed defensive improvement, too, winning seven straight to turn into the team I picked to win the NFC over the summer. This may mean something or it could be an odd trend that means nothing in this specific matchup, but Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson owns a 23-1 record against NFC opponents. I’ll roll with Jackson and the Ravens’ No. 2-ranked run defense (77.9 ypg) in a battle that will be won on the ground.

Week 13 NFL Best Bet: Baltimore Ravens -3

San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills (-6)

Why is San Francisco (5-6) struggling so badly and in danger of missing the playoffs? A brutal schedule and several injuries are the primary reasons. A week after getting whipped 38-10 at Green Bay, the 49ers travel to Buffalo to play in the snow. Brock Purdy is returning from a sore shoulder that forced him to sit out against the Packers, but the 49ers will miss injured left tackle Trent Williams and defensive end Nick Bosa. Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen won’t miss seeing Bosa on the field and Allen has an advantage in the snow. The weather conditions and situational spot favor the Bills, who are off the bye and chasing the top seed in the AFC. I don’t like laying this inflated number, but Buffalo should take care of business.

Week 13 NFL Best Bet: Buffalo Bills -6

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-5.5)

OK, so maybe this season’s top rookie quarterback is not Washington’s Jayden Daniels, who has been banged up and losing steam. The Broncos’ Bo Nix is gaining ground by passing for 795 yards and eight touchdowns with no interceptions in the past three games. Denver’s defense ranks No. 2 in scoring (16.8 ppg) and creates the pressure that can force Cleveland quarterback Jameis Winston into costly mistakes.

Week 13 NFL Best Bet: Denver Broncos -5.5

For more NFL Week 13 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 13 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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