Tennis best bets for ATP Shanghai and WTA Beijing – Wednesday, October 4
There isn’t much time left in the 2023 tennis season, but the Asian swing brings us some really big tournaments. This week, the men are in action for a 1000-level event, which is the biggest a tournament can be outside of the four Grand Slams. Meanwhile, the women are playing in a 500-level tournament, so I’ll also be keeping tabs on that. That said, I wanted to put together some best bets for both ATP Shanghai and WTA Beijing. Keep reading for my three plays for Wednesday, October 4 (with some starting on Tuesday, October 3 in the United States). You’ll also find my futures for ATP Shanghai below.
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Zhizhen Zhang vs. Richard Gasquet
Zhang went a perfect 5-0 at the Asian Games at the end of September, so he comes into this event with some confidence and form. Zhang also happens to be playing in his home tournament, so he’ll have adrenaline on his side from the support of the crowd. When you combine that with the fact that he’s playing an opponent that is just 5-5 in his last 10 matches — with an ugly straight-set loss to Tomas Machac in a French Challenger last week — it’s hard not to like him to win. And I’m willing to lay a little juice on it. Zhang should have a significant edge in power over Gasquet here, and I trust him a bit more as a server. Also, a younger version of Gasquet might have been a better mover than his opponent here, but that’s not exactly the case anymore. I think the baseline play here should be about level. And I think a little more will go Zhang’s way, as he’ll simply want it more in Shanghai.
Bet: Zhang ML (-165)
Roman Safiullin vs. Andy Murray
I’m normally pretty quick to back Safiullin in hard-court matches, as I love his power game. But Safiullin can get a little sloppy from the baseline, which could get him in trouble against Murray. Of course, Murray isn’t the defender he was when he was in his prime, but I’d argue he’s still a top-15 grinder in the sport right now. He simply gets a lot of balls back in play, which forces opponents to hit extra shots. Safiullin could struggle with that, as longer rallies will be where he makes his mistakes. Murray has also won this tournament in the past, as he was the champion back in 2016. So, he knows exactly what it’s like to have success in this event, and he should have some good energy coming into this tournament. Murray also beat Safiullin on a hard court in 2022, and I think the 2023 version of Murray is better than last year’s version.
Bet: Murray ML (+110)
Veronika Kudermetova vs. Coco Gauff
I think this is a tricky match for Gauff, who hasn’t played much since the US Open. The American has won two matches this week, with a straight-set win over Ekaterina Alexandrova and a three-set win over Petra Martic. But I’m just a little nervous about how she’ll play these next few weeks after having won her first major. Kudermetova also happens to be playing some high-level tennis right now, as she won last week’s event in Tokyo. Kudermetova earned wins over Iga Swiatek and Jessica Pegula in that event, so there aren’t many players that are playing better than she is right now. That makes it hard for me to imagine Gauff winning this thing in straight sets. Also, each of the previous two matches between these two have gone to a deciding third.
Bet: Kudermetova +1.5 Sets (-110)
ATP Shanghai Future Bets
Carlos Alcaraz To Win Tournament (+175 – 2 units): Alcaraz got rocked in a straight-set loss to Jannik Sinner earlier in the week, but that’s a tough matchup for the Spaniard on a faster hard court. Sinner is one of the few players with the power from the baseline to speed Alcaraz up, which is why he has had so much success against him in the past. But Sinner is on the bottom half of the draw in this event, and he’ll be coming into the tournament after a run to the final in Beijing. That makes me think that he’ll be beatable in the early rounds, as he hasn’t quite dealt with fatigue well in his young career. And this is a loaded field, so he’ll have tough matchups early. But I also trust Alcaraz to beat Sinner if the two do match up again. He has shown throughout his career that he is capable of making quick adjustments. And overall, I’m expecting Alcaraz to find his form this week after having gotten his feet wet a little in Beijing. He’s the best player in the field with Novak Djokovic sitting out, and he needs to win this tournament in order to have a shot at finishing the year as the world No. 1.
Hubert Hurkacz To Win Quarter 3 (+600): Hurkacz played the Laver Cup but hasn’t played much tennis since the US Open. Still, his big serve gives him a very high floor in hard-court tournaments, and I can’t rule out the possibility of him making a run to the semis in Shanghai. He’s in the same quarter as guys like Alex De Minaur, Casper Ruud and Holger Rune. All three are good players, but Hurkacz won’t be intimidated seeing any of them on his path. That said, I like taking him as a big plus-money play here.
2023 Overall Record: 283-259 (+45.76 units)
