Tennis best bets for Wimbledon – Tuesday, July 11th
Wimbledon is the third major of the tennis season and it’s arguably the most prestigious of the four. The All England Club in London, England is one of the most beautiful venues that the sport has to offer, and the exclusive nature of grass-court tennis gives it a different feel than the rest. With that out of the way, I’m hoping to continue dishing out winners over the next week, so make sure you keep reading for my tennis best bets for Tuesday, July 11th.
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Marketa Vondrousova vs. Jessica Pegula
Vondrousova is currently ranked 42nd in the world, but she’s a top-10 talent in the women’s game. With that said, you shouldn’t be shocked to see that Pegula isn’t a massive favorite in this match. And I actually think Vondrousova is a more dangerous player than Pegula, which is why I’m backing the Czech to win this match.
These two have never played one another in the past, so there’s no head-to-head history to draw on. But grass has never really been Pegula’s surface. The American might be 6-1 on grass over the last 52 weeks, but she is just 12-8 on the surface in her career. I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that Pegula isn’t quite known as a player that can blow you off the court with her power.
Vondrousova hasn’t had a lot of success on grass either, but her game makes her a pretty natural fit on the surface. We saw that in her win over Veronika Kudermetova, who was a popular pick to win this tournament. She then backed it up with a win over Donna Vekic, who is another great grass-court player.
I just like the lefty’s combination of finesse and power to help her win this match. She can move Pegula around the court with some of her off-speed stuff, but she’ll hit it right by her when she gets an opening.
Bet: Vondrousova ML (+110)
Roman Safiullin vs. Jannik Sinner
While Sinner will come to the court carrying a very expensive Gucci bag, Safiullin will be out there in what looks like a plain Hanes t-shirt. That fashion statement is also somewhat similar to the on-court style clash we’ll see in this match. Sinner is a flashy player with an all-around game, while Safiullin is just going to bomb serves and rely on his powerful forehand to win him points. Overall, I like the simplistic approach of the Russian to give Sinner some problems here.
Sinner has all the tools to win Grand Slams in the future, but he has failed to break through. Part of that is because Sinner’s fitness becomes an issue later in these tournaments. The Italian can also have issues locking in mentally against weaker opponents. We saw that last match when the 21-year-old made Daniel Galan look a lot better than he actually is. I actually think Sinner would have been better off facing a bigger name in this round. If he did, he wouldn’t have been able to suffer a mental letdown. But I can see him doing so here.
Safiullin’s serve should allow him to work very deep into sets, and I think he has the potential to win at least one. That’s why I’m putting a big play on Safiullin to cover a 2.5-set spread. I’m also sprinkling Safiullin to win at least two sets at +220 odds. And I don’t hate an even smaller sprinkle on the moneyline. Sinner really should win this match, but no part of me would be surprised if he lost outright.
Bet: Safiullin +2.5 Sets (-125 – 2 units) & Safiullin +1.5 Sets (+220 – 0.5 units)
Andrey Rublev vs. Novak Djokovic
In each of the last two rounds, I have backed Djokovic’s opponents to win at least one set. I’m not going away from it with Rublev up next. I just think the prices on these plays are somewhat outrageous, and I was a Stan Wawrinka botch job away from being right in each of the last two rounds. With that said, it feels like a no-brainer to go back to this with Rublev being the best opponent Djokovic has faced thus far.
Djokovic is the best player in the world on grass, but he hasn’t always been reliable when it comes to winning clean matches. The 23-time Grand Slam champion is always capable of dipping in form a bit. What makes him so great is that he finds a way to learn from it and pick right back up. But overall, there’s a lot of value in backing Rublev to get on the board here. An argument can be made that this is the Russian’s best surface, and I think his power from the baseline can give Djokovic some trouble.
It’s also important to note that Rublev’s serve was unbelievable against Alexander Bublik last match. He wasn’t broken once over the course of five sets, and that type of precision and accuracy will give him a good shot of making this match competitive.
Bet: Rublev +2.5 Sets (+110)
