College Football Coaching Changes for 2024
The 2024 college football season will feature 29 new head coaches, nine of whom will be taking on the lead role for a full season for the first time. As I start digging into everything college football prepping for the 2024 campaign, my first subject is the coaching changes. They are always impactful on teams’ prospects for a season, particularly early on. Most VSiN readers will recognize that coaching changes play a huge role in formulating my College Football Stability Scores before each season.
I recently detailed the performance trends of rookie and veteran NFL head coaches in their first seasons with new teams. I found that most rookie coaches over the last decade managed to improve their teams’ won-lost records in their first season while the experienced guys won only about 40% of their games. I’ll have more numbers regarding this for college football in a few weeks when I look at carryover systems, but I can tell you that the success rate at the college level for coaching changes is nowhere near as high as in the NFL. There are a few reasons for this, with instability being the primary one. A head coach leaving in college football typically means new coordinators and new systems on both sides of the ball. This is a lot for younger players to overcome in a short time.
Typically, college coaching changes are a result of just a few possibilities. First, poor performance. In most cases, this comes from a shortage of talent. Building a better overall talent level takes time for new coaches. Second, a highly successful coach leaves for a bigger, more established program. This is a painful one for all the Group of 5 teams each year, and re-establishing the magic can prove difficult for the replacement. Third, longtime coaches simply retire, leaving a huge void in the leadership position, as a program naturally grows accustomed to certain routines, and change is never easy, nor always accepted willingly. In all three cases, you can see how finding that lightning in a bottle in a coach’s first year can be a challenge. This is opposed to the NFL, where there’s more parity, and a breath of fresh air can make a world of difference.
With that in mind, let’s run through the 29 head coaching changes in FBS. I’ll try to provide my insights as well as a prediction for how that coach and program might fare in 2024, with a particular focus on the DraftKings season win total props. Following the breakdown of the new head coaches, you’ll find a list showing all of the coordinator changes as well.
Alabama
Conference: SEC
New head coach: Kalen DeBoer
Career record: 37-9
Former head coach: Nick Saban, 17 seasons
2023 record: 12-2 SU and 9-5 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Growing weary of the new age of college football, Nick Saban called it quits after his team lost in the semifinals of the College Football Playff this past winter. He claimed the transfer portal, NIL and overall attitudes of kids these days made it hard for him to do his job successfully. Who can blame him? Still, replacing a legend like Saban at a school that has been on top for so long is never easy. The job goes to Kalen DeBoer, who led his Washington Huskies to the national title game last year. Obviously things will change in Tuscaloosa under DeBoer, but don’t expect this program to fall off a cliff. Washington made a meteoric rise in DeBoer’s short stay.
Better or worse in ’24?: Because of the boatload of talent Alabama lost after Saban’s decision to leave, it’s impossible to think that the Tide will immediately live up to the standards the program has set over the last decade-plus. DeBoer will be successful here, and he did bring in some highly-rated recruits and tranfers to replace the losses. QB Jalen Milroe is also back. I expect the Tide to slip a bit in 2024 but not more than 3-4 power ratings points in the end, which could mean one or two more losses than usual.
Arizona
Conference: Big 12
New head coach: Brent Brennan
Career record: 34-48
Former head coach: Jedd Fisch, 3 seasons
2023 record: 10-3 SU, 11-2 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Jedd Fisch brought the Arizona football program back from the dead, taking over after a 0-5 2020 season and leading the team to 1-11, 5-7 and 10-3 seasons. His loss will be felt deeply as it essentially squelches any positive momentum. Brent Brennan, who also led a resurgence — although a far less dramatic one — at San Jose State, takes over. Fisch did what he promised to do at a school that should have been a more consistent performer considering its lure.
Better or worse in ’24?: With the move to the Big 12, and the return of stud QB Noah Fifita for ’24, it could be argued that Arizona is just as attractive a coaching spot as Washington, so it was somewhat of a surprise to see Fisch leave what he had built so successfully over the last few years. Fifita will help maintain at least some of what has been gained, but Fisch’s loss was a big blow. DraftKings has Arizona’s win total at 8, and I see that as a ceiling type of number and will probably end up having the Widlcats’ power rating down at least 5-6 points heading into September.
Boston College
Conference: ACC
New head coach: Bill O’Brien
Career record: 15-9
Former head coach: Jeff Hafley, 4 seasons
2023 record: 7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Bill O’Brien was one of the more intriguing college football head coaching hires this year. As the former offensive coordinator of the Patriots, O’Brien has a lot of fans in the Boston area and should have a little longer leash because of it. I expect him to recruit well in the Northeast for years to come. Jeff Hafely had a mediocre four-year run for the program, topping out at seven wins last year. Besides New England, O’Brien has been OC at Alabama as well, so he has seen the top of the mountain, but he hasn’t been a college head coach since 2013 at Penn State.
Better or worse in ’24?: The DraftKings season win total projection is set for just 5 this fall, so clearly the experts think this will be a rebuilding season for the Golden Eagles under O’Brien. From the looks of it, BC will go with Thomas Castellanos at starting QB. He attempted just 43 passes against 40 rushing attempts, so very little experience for the dual-threat athlete. Besides O’Brien, the Golden Eagles also bring in new coordinators on both sies of the ball. In other words, EVERYTHING is going to be essentially new for ’24, meaning instability, early struggles and probably a season minus a bowl bid.
Buffalo
Conference: MAC
New head coach: Pete Lembo
Career record: 33-29
Former head coach: Maurice Linguist, 3 seasons
2023 record: 3-9 SU and 5-7 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: In three seasons, Maurice Linguist took a team trending incredibly positively and produced just a 14-23 record. That came after a three-year stretch in which the Bulls went 24-10 under Lance Leipold, who has gone on to continued great heights at Kansas. Just one wrong hire can turn a program that quickly. Hence a change was needed and made abruptly. Pete Lembo, the recent offensive coordinator at South Carolina, gets the assignment. He last was a head coach at Ball State, so he is familiar with the MAC.
Better or worse in ’24?: SB Nation’s Missouri page referred to Buffalo as one of the “worst FB programs on the planet” in its preview of upcoming opponents. DraftKings may be seeing it otherwise as it has set a season win total of 5. A ton of new personnel was brought in to replace the old “talent” that left. I use the quotes because is it really negative when you lose a lot of players from a 3-9 team? This is a complete rebuild situation, but it doesn’t mean the team will be worse. It needed to change. I actually think the Bulls will be a little better down the stretch this season after a probable rough start.
Duke
Conference: ACC
New head coach: Manny Diaz
Career record: 21-15
Former head coach: Mike Elko, 2 seasons
2023 record: 8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Losing Mike Elko to Texas A&M was a kick in the teeth to a Duke program that had finally started to compete with the basketball team for fans in Durham. All Elko did was take a 3-9 team in ’21 to seasons of 9-4 and 8-5 in his two years. His team was an overachieving darling that performed wonderfully in the underdog role. The job now goes to Manny Diaz, who leaves Penn State after two years as DC following a three-year run of underachievement at Miami.
Better or worse in ’24?: It feels as if Duke reached for the first and most recognizable brand name it could find as its new head coach in an attempt to keep the recent resurgence going. I’m not a fan of such hires, especially since they hired Elko for his first head coaching job. Why not repeat the pattern? In addition to losing Elko, the Blue Devils also have to work in a new QB after Riley Leonard left for Notre Dame. He was the face of the program the last two successful seasons. DraftKings sees this program dropping to .500 this season. I will probably have them down 4-5 points as well.
Georgia State
Conference: Sun Belt
New head coach: Dell McGee
Career record: 0-0
Former head coach: Shawn Elliott, 7 seasons
2023 record: 7-6 SU and 7-6 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: It’s hard to believe that Shawn Elliott was at Georgia State for seven seasons before resigning and moving on to South Carolina this offseason. I recall writing about how big of a job he had in front of him back in 2017. He did that job well though, leading the Panthers to five seasons of plus-.500 ball. GSU brass didn’t go far to replace Elliott, plucking Dell McGee, a rising star whose has spent almost all of his coaching life at various levels in the state of Georgia. He most recently served as run game coordinator for the Bulldogs, the state’s flagship team.
Better or worse in ’24?: It’s usually more difficult for Group of 5 teams to move on after successful eras. The Panthers were a better and more consistent team under Elliott than they were previously. They now move on with new coaches at all key spots, plus will be a newcomer at quarterback and most other starting positions. It won’t be an easy first season for McGee, especially early, when mass instability tends to rear its ugly head. DraftKings calls for just 4.5 wins. I don’t have a strong opinion, but the schedule is light enough where a strong second half could get Georgia State over that number, especially because the program has gotten somewhat used to winning.
Houston
Conference: Big 12
New head coach: Willie Fritz
Career record: 71-54
Former head coach: Dana Holgorsen, 5 seasons
2023 record: 4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: The hiring of Dana Holgorsen at Houston was a popular one when it happened five years ago. His firing was probably even more so after an incredibly inconsistent tenure. The Cougars were 20-7 in ’21-22, but 11-21 in the other three seasons combined. There’s no shortage of talent to recruit from in the Houston area, and now that the program is entrenched in the Big 12, there’s no room for patience. Insert Willie Fritz, who spent the last eight years building Tulane into one of the top Group of 5 teams in the country. He seems more than ready for a shot at the big-time college football the Big 12 provides.
Better or worse in ’24?: The expectations in the first season in the Big 12 last year weren’t exactly high, but it could still be argued that Houston underperformed in Holgorsen’s last year with the program. Fritz’s most recent teams at Tulane rarely underperformed, going 23-5. With non-conference games against UNLV, Oklahoma and Rice, the early schedule is quite tough, and Fritz and his new staff are turning over a program. I’m not surprised DraftKings has the season win total at a meager 3.5. However, I would be surprised if Fritz doesn’t have long-term success here.
Indiana
Conference: Big Ten
New head coach: Curt Cignetti
Career record: 19-4
Former head coach: Tom Allen, 7 seasons
2023 record: 3-9 SU, 7-5 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Curt Cignetti had James Madison undefeated and on top of the college football world last fall when ESPN’s “College GameDay” hosted from its campus. His record in two years of FBS football for the Dukes was a sparkling 19-4. He, along with OC Mike Shanahan, will try to lift Indiana out of a three-year run that has seen the Hoosiers win just nine total games. It’s obviously a step up in competition for Cignetti and staff in the expanded Big Ten, but so was going from FCS to FBS for JMU a few years ago.
Better or worse in ’24?: Tom Allen had the Indiana program trending in the right direction, but the plummet seemed to coincide with the devastating injury to QB Michael Penix Jr. during the ’21 season. Since then, the Hoosiers have not found their footing. Could Cignetti have the QB answer for ’24 in Kurtis Rourke, a transfer from Ohio University? Rourke played gritty ball for the Bobcats and was very successful. This staff has been strong together and the DK win total (5) and my power rating (up 1-2 points in all likelihood) suggest this team will be better than a year ago.
James Madison
Conference: Sun Belt
New head coach: Bob Chesney
Career record: 0-0
Former head coach: Curt Cignetti, 5 seasons
2023 record: 11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: When you’re an emerging football program, an administrator can ask for nothing more from a coach than leaving it in a better spot than when he inherited it. Curt Cignetti did that and much more for James Madison. So much so that even as he leaves with most of his staff, the Dukes are still expected to win eight games this season and again contend in the Sun Belt Conference. The job falls to Bob Chesney to keep the train rolling. Unlike a lot of floundering programs, JMU went back to the well with the same strategy it used in hiring Cignetti, that being plucking a coach who proved his worth at the FCS level prior.
Better or worse in ’24?: Even at 8 wins on the DraftKings season win total prop, the ’24 season would be a significant decline for James Madison. So much of what happened in Harrisonburg the last couple of seasons can be attributed to Cignetti and the momentum the team built in using an us-against-the-world mentality after moving up to FBS. The Dukes will be in more of a hunted position this season rather than being the hunters. Fortunately, the team did bring in a key transfer in QB Dylan Morris, the primary backup last season to Michael Penix Jr. at Washington. Still, I don’t think this year’s version can live up to the hype created last year and I expect JMU to drop somewhat in ’24.
Louisiana-Monroe
Conference: Sun Belt
New head coach: Bryant Vincent
Career record: 7-6
Former head coach: Terry Bowden, 3 seasons
2023 record: 2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: It was a relatively short stay in Monroe for Terry Bowden, who took an 0-10 team from 2020 and led them to a combined 10 wins in three seasons. The problem was after two steps forward in ’21 and ’22, the program took a major step in they wrong direction last year, winning just twice while being outscored 34.9-17.3 on average. The job of reviving the Warhawks falls to Bryant Vincent, who takes over a ULM team that has gone plus-.500 just once since ’98.
Better or worse in ’24?: Vincent served as the interim head coach for UAB in the ’22 season after Blazers players pledged their support for him after longtime coach Bill Clark walked away before fall camp. He went just 7-6 for the school in his lone season, then went on to New Mexico last year to serve as OC. He has a great deal of assistant coaching experience and has been popular with players, but I’m not sure that is what is needed to turn ULM around. The DK win total is set at 2.5, which would be an improvement, but this program still remains one of the worst 10 in the country realistically. Don’t expect a quantum leap.
Michigan
Conference: Big Ten
New head coach: Sherrone Moore
Career record: 1-0
Former head coach: Jim Harbaugh, 9 seasons
2023 record: 15-0 SU, 9-5 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Despite all the recent controversy surrounding the program, which still could face discipline from the NCAA, Jim Harbaugh managed to take the Wolverines to the top. After guiding Michigan through both recruiting and sign stealing controversies, he leaves for the NFL as a national champion. The monumental task of keeping the ship cruising goes to Sherrone Moore, who was the acting coach versus Penn State after a Harbaugh one-game suspension in November. Moore displayed a deep admiration for his predecessor, has the respect of the administration and, perhaps most importantly, that of the players.
Better or worse in ’24?: There are few more pressure-packed situations for a head coach than taking over as a rookie for a team after a championship season. Moore has been around the Michigan program since 2018 in various assistant capacities so it won’t be a complete reboot in Ann Arbor despite what will go down on paper as a “instable situation” at the outset. The DK win prop is 9, so experts still expect this program to win. However, it won’t be national title level and a playoff berth looks out of reach as well. Expect a 2-3 win dropoff and perhaps a power rating drop of 10-12 points by season’s end from last year’s lofty figures.
Michigan State
Conference: Big Ten
New head coach: Jonathan Smith
Career record: 34-35
Former head coach: Mel Tucker, 4 seasons
2023 record: 4-8 SU, 5-6 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Jonathan Smith played four years as a quarterback at Oregon State and served as the head coach there since 2018. If anyone in the country appeared on a path to being a lifer in Corvallis, Smith would have been it. Instead, with the unraveling of the Pac-12, he saw the grass greener enough in East Lansing to leave his alma mater. He takes over a program that has endured a rather rough six-year period in which it has won more than seven games just once. His predecessor, Mel Tucker, cam with a lot of fanfare, and had a huge 2021 season, but that was it. There is work to be done in the expanded and improved Big Ten.
Better or worse in ’24?: Michigan State won four games last season. With Smith and an entire new staff taking over, DK has set the win total for 5. Why the expected improvement despite the program starting over? Perhaps its because of the key player Smith brought with him from Oregon State, QB Aidan Chiles, a highly rated recruit out of high school who appeared in nine games for the Beavers last season. He is expected to take over for the Spartans. The offense was terrible last year, putting up only 15.9 PPG. Chiles will immediately make this team better. Expect an uptick in power rating by around 4-5 points.
Middle Tennessee State
Conference: Conference USA
New head coach: Derek Mason
Career record: 27-55
Former head coach: Rick Stockstill, 18 seasons
2023 record: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Rick Stockstill made it through thick and thin at Middle Tennessee State over the last 18 seasons, topping out at 10 wins in ’09 and bottoming out at 2-10 in 2011. Aside from that were a lot of middling seasons with 11 bowl games in all. In comes a coach who has spent the last 13 seasons at Power 5 schools in various capacities, including head coach at Vanderbilt from 2014 to ’20. Experience won’t be an issue with Derek Mason. His Vandy teams weren’t successful, though.
Better or worse in ’24?: I haven’t been able to find a lot of information on who Mason has committed to at key positions, including QB. However, a few experienced transfers were brought in to compete for that job. DK has the win total set at 5, which would be a one-game improvement on 2023. I’m not a huge fan of unsuccessful coaches at bigger schools stepping down to Group of 5 situations, so I’ll call for a slow start and a similar finish to last year for MTSU.
Mississippi State
Conference: SEC
New head coach: Jeff Lebby
Career record: 0-0
Former head coach: Zach Arnett, 1 season
2023 record: 5-7 SU, 3-8 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Zach Arnett stepped into a very difficult spot after Mike Leach died and led Mississippi State to a bowl game win over Illinois in his first game after the ’22 season. He got a chance to run things full time last year, but the only notable win the Bulldogs recorded was a 7-3 decision against Arkansas in what amounted to a 5-7 SU and 3-8-1 ATS finish. Jeff Lebby, who has led explosive offenses at UCF, Ole Miss and most recently Oklahoma over the last five seasons, takes over.
Better or worse in ’24?: Quarterback Will Rogers has manned the ship at MSU for the last three seasons, although the offense surprisingly sputtered in ’23. He is out and it would appear that former Baylor starter Blake Shapen is in. He should get ample opportunity to put up big numbers for Lebby. That doesn’t mean the Bulldogs are ready to compete in the loaded SEC yet, just that they might be a little more entertaining this season. The win total is set at 4.5, which is a tic below what they finished at last year. I don’t see much reason to expect a significant change either.
Nevada
Conference: Mountain West
New head coach: Jeff Choate
Career record: 0-0
Former head coach: Ken Wilson, 2 seasons
2023 record: 2-10 SU, 6-6 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Two years ago, Nevada became the first team to record a score of ZERO on my Stability Ratings for then-rookie coach Ken Wilson. I stressed at the time that fans in Reno would have to be quite patient. After back-to-back 2-10 seasons, that patience wore thin. Wilson now gets replaced by Jeff Choate, who most recently served as co-DC at Texas the last three seasons. Before that, he was head coach at FCS power Montana, reaching the playoff semifinals in ’19, so he has earned his shot at leading a FCS program.
Better or worse in ’24?: Choate has indicated that the key battle to be starting QB of the Wolfpack will come down to a training camp battle. Whoever he eventually names as the starter will have a great opportunity, as there would seem to be nowhere for this team to go but up. This program is not used to losing, having enjoyed a solid 115-90 run from ’05-21. I don’t expect it to stay down for long although significant improvement might be a couple of years away. The win prop is just 2.5, but I would expect Nevada to be better on a power rating scale for no other reason than a return to normalcy.
New Mexico
Conference: Mountain West
New head coach: Bronco Mendenhall
Career record: 135-81
Former head coach: Danny Gonzales, 4 seasons
2023 record: 4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Talk about programs in a rut, New Mexico has enjoyed back-to-back winning seasons just once since 2005. Departing head coach Danny Gonzalez did nothing to bring the Lobos out of that funk, winning just 11 games in four seasons. To replace him, they bring back a familiar name in Bronco Mendenhall, who served four years as assistant at UNM around the turn of the century. He has won 135 games at BYU and Virginia as a head coach since.
Better or worse in ’24?: Mendenhall should be a tremendous upgrade over Gonzalez in terms of leadership and winning experience. Will that translate to the field in ’24? I wouldn’t completely disregard the thought, as the Lobos were showing progress last year, winning four games for the first time since 2016, including three in upset fashion. They also scored 27.3 PPG, the most since that same year. There is also an experienced and winning QB now in place with Dylan Hopkins, who recently starred at UAB. The DraftKings win total is set at a measly 2. I think it’s a miss and at this point figure to make Over on that option one of my preseason wagers.
New Mexico State
Conference: Conference USA
New head coach: Tony Sanchez
Career record: 20-40
Former head coach: Jerry Kill, 2 seasons
2023 record: 10-5 SU, 11-4 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: After two renaissance seasons under Jerry Kill, the other program in the state of New Mexico also has to start over after Kill unexpectedly resigned following the team’s bowl game. NMSU didn’t go too far to replace him in hopes that familiarity helps the program stay on solid ground. Tony Sanchez was the wide receivers coach the last two years here and previously served as head coach at UNLV from 2014-19.
Better or worse in ’24?: To show you how much the experts think the Aggies have the potential to hit a wall this season, oddsmakers at DraftKings have set the NMSU win total for 2024 at 4.5. Remember, this is a team that won 10 games last year and 17 the past two seasons. Perhaps a lot of it has to do with the lack of respect they may have for what new coach Sanchez accomplished at UNLV, just 20 wins in five seasons. Stud QB Diego Pavia is off to Vanderbilt, so this feels like a complete rebuild. The experts are rarely wrong. I think they are telling us we will see a completely new and far less successful situation in Las Cruces.
Oregon State
Conference: Pac-12
New head coach: Trent Bray
Career record: 0-0
Former head coach: Jonathan Smith, 6 seasons
2023 record: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: With the Pac-12 crumbling around them, Oregon State and Washington State were the only programs left to pick up the pieces. The “Conference of Champions” figures to return at some point in one form or another, but for now, OSU and WSU feel like abandoned ships. In that sense, the Beavers are forced to move on from Jonathan Smith, who led a nice revival over the last six seasons. What’s left falls to Trent Bray, who gets his first head coaching gig after spending the last six seasons here as a defensive assistant.
Better or worse in ’24?: Without an effective conference home for 2024, the schedule for OSU is nothing like it has been. I won’t call it easy, but it is easier, so even if the team isn’t as good, which it won’t be with just five starters back, the record might not reflect it. After winning eight games last year, the DK win prop is 7.5. However, my power rating adjustment figures to have the Beavers down 8-10 points.
South Alabama
Conference: Sun Belt
New head coach: Major Applewhite
Career record: 15-11
Former head coach: Kane Wommack, 3 seasons
2023 record: 7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Kane Wommack led a nice surge at USA over the last three seasons, putting up a double-digit win effort in 2022. When he got his chance to land at Alabama as a defensive assistant, he jumped at it. Who can blame him? What he leaves behind is a team with just seven starters back and a lot of ground to make up. This big job falls to Major Applewhite, who gets a shot at the top job after serving as OC for the Jaguars for the past three seasons.
Better or worse in ’24?: Applewhite was 15-11 overall for Houston from 2016-18 but lost three bowl games. He is quite familiar with the team having commanded the offense the last three years. While two playmaking quarterbacks are no longer around, Applewhite is expected to turn to redshirt freshman Gio Lopez at QB. He showed some dual-threat ability last year in limited action. With new coordinators in place, a change at starting QB and 14 other starters to be replaced, this is truly a transitional year at South Alabama. The DK win prop of 6.5 seems a bit optimistic. I’ll call for 5-7 and a PR drop of 4-5 points.
San Diego State
Conference: Mountain West
New head coach: Sean Lewis
Career record: 24-31
Former head coach: Brady Hoke, 4 seasons
2023 record: 4-8 SU, 7-5 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: With the success the basketball team has enjoyed recently, the San Diego State football team’s lack thereof came under the microscope after last year’s 4-8 finish. Ultimately, it forced Brady Hoke “into retirement.” This coming just two years removed from a 12-2 finish. In any case, Sean Lewis gets the job, one of five new head coaches in the Mountain West this season. Lewis comes over after just one year as Colorado’s OC, that coming after a five-year head coaching stint at Kent State. Both the Buffaloes and Golden Flashes had a penchant for shootout types of games under Lewis. Perhaps that’s the type of football SDSU was looking for after spending the last six seasons as a low-20s PPG type of offense.
Better or worse in ’24?: Even in their 12-win season of 2021, the Aztecs put up just 27.8 PPG, so there was always an obvious ceiling on how much this program was going to be able to accomplish with Hoke. That ceiling seems to have been lifted with Lewis, who led Kent State to almost 50 PPG in the shortened 2020 campaign. He brings in a new transfer quarterback from Florida State as well, in AJ Duffy, a sophomore and once highly rated recruit. He should put up unusually big numbers by SDSU standards. This team’s win prop is 5.5, which would be an improvement. The schedule looks pretty light, too. I think this team will be better with the new style and energy. Even with a slow start for instability, this team should see a bowl game and a 4-5 point PR improvement.
San Jose State
Conference: Mountain West
New head coach: Ken Niumatalolo
Career record: 109-83
Former head coach: Brent Brennan, 7 seasons
2023 record: 7-6 SU, 9-4 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Brent Brennan had a good run at San Jose State, topping out at 7-1 in the COVID-shortened season of 2020. His Spartans teams also won seven games in each of the last two seasons. He used that success to launch himself into a headliner job at Arizona this fall. That leaves a team featuring just seven returning starters in the hands of a new but very experienced head coach in Ken Niumatalolo. If that name sounds familiar, yes, it’s the same one who guided Navy and its triple-option attack for 16 seasons. Before you get too concerned, however, SJSU will not be running the triple option, instead a “Spread-N-Shred” attack led by new OC Craig Stutzmann, who recently ran the offense at Texas State and Washington State.
Better or worse in ’24?: The naming of Niumatalolo as head coach at SJSU probably left fans immediately spooked in fears that the Spartans would look like Navy. While that system works for a military program, it could never do so in this day and age elsewhere. It makes it nearly impossible to recruit players hoping to advance beyond college football. That said, the new system will indeed be very new, and almost everything else around the Spartans program will be unrecognizable. While it might work out long term, I don’t love the prospects for ’24. The DK win prop is just 5, even with the MWC being down and featuring a handful of new coaches. I project this team to be down in both wins and power rating, probably 5 points or so.
Syracuse
Conference: ACC
New head coach: Fran Brown
Career record: 0-0
Former head coach: Dino Babers, 8 seasons
2023 record: 6-7 SU, 5-7 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Syracuse had a memorable season under Dino Babers, going 10-3 in 2018. Other than that, the Orange were just 32-53 in his other seven seasons. It could safely be argued that one season was the fluke. After a rather experienced ’23 team underachieved with a 6-7 record, it was time to move on. Insert Fran Brown, who gets his first top job after getting a significant promotion, having last served as a defensive backs coach at Georgia. I can’t recall too many past guys making that big of a climb in one season and succeeding. We’ll see what the future at ’Cuse holds in store for Brown.
Better or worse in ’24?: Experts are fairly high on the Orange this year, as DraftKings oddsmakers call for a 7-win season and a bowl game. Why the optimism? Well, how about the return of 18 starters and the addition of transfer QB Kyle McCord from Ohio State. That seems like a pretty good place to start, and even if the situation is a bit unstable because of the coaching/system changes out of the gate, the schedule is light enough where this team could still win games and be ready for a late-season surge.
Texas A&M
Conference: SEC
New head coach: Mike Elko
Career record: 16-9
Former head coach: Jimbo Fisher, 6 seasons
2023 record: 7-6 SU, 6-6 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: The Jimbo Fisher era at Texas A&M was under constant scrutiny, and the lofty expectations set after Fisher’s success at Florida State and his remarkable recruiting efforts for the Aggies never came to fruition. Instead, it can be argued that the team perennially underachieved under Fisher. So, who would be the ultimate replacement for him? How about a guy whose two teams at Duke measurably overachieved? Well, that’s Mike Elko, and he gets the pressure-packed job of making the most out of what was thought to be a very fruitful situation in College Station. Elko was the DC here under Fisher before going to Duke, so he is well acquainted with the environment and expectations.
Better or worse in ’24?: Whether or not Texas A&M will be better in 2024 under Mike Elko is one of the biggest and most important questions in college football. This is arguably one of the most talented rosters in the country and if someone can orchestrate it, the sky is the limit. The schedule is not as rough as others’ in the SEC, as the Aggies avoid Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and Ole Miss. By name, Elko is a new hire, as are the coordinators on both sides of the ball, but 18 starters are back, so I wouldn’t characterize it as unstable. This team could be very good, and the 8.5-win prop at DK seems like a nervous offering. I’ll call for a 9-3 regular season.
Troy
Conference: Sun Belt
New head coach: Gerad Parker
Career record: 0-6
Former head coach: Jon Sumrall, 2 seasons
2023 record: 11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Jon Sumrall won 23 games against just four losses for Troy the last two seasons as head coach. That was the program’s best two-year run in FBS history. Naturally, it would leave that coach with the inclination to use his stardom to take a step or two up the coaching ladder. Hence the surprise by yours truly then when he opted for a position at Tulane, a member of the American Athletic Conference. He could have aimed much bigger, with some patience. That said, Gerad Parker takes over in his first head coaching assignment after spending the last two years as a Notre Dame assistant/OC.
Better or worse in ’24?: Like most programs whose coach departs in the offseason, Troy was hit hard by the transfer portal. What figured to be a relatively experienced and very successful roster under Sumrall this year has been whittled down to just four returning starters for Parker. That’s not to say there isn’t any talent left as Parker was able to get a host of Power 5 transfers in, including projected QB Goose Crowder from West Virginia. However, DK has dropped the win total to 7 and I would expect a near 10-point power rating drop. This will be a very unstable situation early.
Tulane
Conference: American Athletic
New head coach: Jon Sumrall
Career record: 23-4
Former head coach: Willie Fritz, 8 seasons
2023 record: 11-3 SU, 5-9 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Willie Fritz led Tulane to new heights in recent years, including, of course, a New Year’s 6 level bowl win over USC a couple of years ago. However, his departure leaves a void and it was noticeable already in last year’s bowl game when a listless Green Wave team was clobbered by Virginia Tech. Jon Sumrall, who was very successful the last two years at Troy, takes over and will try to pick up the pieces.
Better or worse in ’24?: The biggest loss Sumrall has to deal with is moving on without QB Michael Pratt, the multi-year starter who had been the face of the program since 2020. However, the program landed a talented transfer in Ty Thompson out of Oregon. Like so many of the teams on this list, though, Tulane will also be dealing with new systems in place with the new staff. Fifteen starters return to cushion the blow. It would be easy to predict this team will drop a bit this season, but I would only categorize it in the 4-5 PR range, unlike some other programs that didn’t bring in as much transfer talent.
UCLA
Conference: Big Ten
New head coach: DeShaun Foster
Career record: 0-0
Former head coach: Chip Kelly, 6 seasons
2023 record: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: I wouldn’t characterize the six-year run under Chip Kelly at UCLA as a total bust, but surely fans have to feel some level of regret and disappointment with what their former coach was able to accomplish at rival Oregon. Now, with the Bruins turning the page and joining the Big Ten, they call on a familiar name to lead the charge. DeShaun Foster, who starred at UCLA and in the NFL as a running back, gets promoted for his first head coaching assignment. Foster has been running backs coach here since ’17.
Better or worse in ’24?: The move to the Big Ten presents a different set of challenges for UCLA this season, especially since Foster has been familiar with the Pac-12 ways in coaching at this school since ’13. There will be new opponent challenges, travel difficulties and much more to deal with for Foster besides being a first-time head coach. It’s no wonder DraftKings sees the Bruins as an under-.500 team, setting the win total at 5.5. In addition to one of the tougher Big Ten slates in the league, UCLA also has a non-conference trip to LSU scheduled. I see this team dropping 3-4 PR points and falling short of a bowl game in ’24.
UTEP
Conference: Conference USA
New head coach: Scotty Walden
Career record: 1-3
Former head coach: Dana Dimel, 6 seasons
2023 record: 3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Scotty Walden coached four games in an interim capacity for Southern Miss during the 2020 COVID season. Since then, he has manned the Austin Peay program in FCS. APU hasn’t exactly been a powerhouse program, going 22-12 the last three seasons. UTEP must have been bowled over by Walden in its search for a replacement for Dana Dimel, whose tenure at the school ended when he took a relatively experienced team led by a senior multi-year starting QB and finished 3-9.
Better or worse in ’24?: You have to dig pretty hard to come up with reasons why UTEP would be noticeably improved in ’24, as just nine starters return and the systems will be completely overhauled by the new staff. Sure, QB Cade McConnell is back as starter, but his numbers were pedestrian and the team scored fewer than 20 PPG last fall. The DK win total is 4 and the Miners face non-league tilts at Nebraska and Tennessee. Four wins looks like a ceiling to me.
Washington
Conference: Big Ten
New head coach: Jedd Fisch
Career record: 17-22
Former head coach: Kalen DeBoer, 2 seasons
2023 record: 14-1 SU, 7-7 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Kalen DeBoer took Washington to the CFP title game last year but came up short. Nonetheless, his name was a top candidate for the big jobs that opened up across the country. He landed at Alabama and took several transfers with him, leaving the Huskies and new head coach Jedd Fisch with many holes to fill. Fisch however, is also a star on the rise, and took an Arizona program seemingly dead in the water to 10 wins in just three years. He should be able to help Washington maintain some level of success in its first season in the Big Ten.
Better or worse in ’24?: It will always feel weird to me to talk about the prospects of teams like Washington, Oregon, UCLA and USC in the Big Ten. It just doesn’t feel right. Had the Huskies been returning to the Pac-12 once again, I don’t think the prospects for this year would be nearly as dim. Instead, a team with just five starters back takes on a new slate of teams and a lot of travel miles. Quarterback Will Rogers, a transfer from Mississippi State, is in place, but this team’s last eight games on the schedule may be the toughest in the country. DraftKings sees the Huskies as a 7-win team. I could get on board, assuming they don’t slip up early in the easier part of the schedule. Unfortunately, that is easy to do when battling instability. Either way, this will be one of the biggest season-to-season power rating drops in the country.
Wyoming
Conference: Mountain West
New head coach: Jay Sawvel
Career record: 0-0
Former head coach: Craig Bohl, 10 seasons
2023 record: 9-4 SU, 7-5 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Craig Bohl spent a decade as Wyoming’s head coach, and his teams played in six bowl games. He retired after the best season his team enjoyed, 9-4. In order to keep the positive momentum going, the program turned to its defensive coordinator to take over in Jay Sawvel. His defenses were solid the last four years and he has the respect of the team and administration. With a reasonable number of starters back (13), this shouldn’t be that big of a transition.
Better or worse in ’24?: Sawvel loses one of the most important pieces to last year’s success as QB Andrew Peasley graduated. He had a 20/5 TD/Int ratio last season. As such, there will be a new quarterback, new head coach and two new coordinators on paper. It will be classified as unstable, although like I indicated earlier, it won’t be as big of a changeover as in many other cases I’ve noted in this article. There’s no doubt in my mind that this Cowboys team will take a step or two back in ’24, and I would estimate about a 4-5 point PR decline.
Offensive coordinator changes
These are all of the offensive coordinator changes for the 2024 season, with 67 in all, exactly half of the nation’s 134 teams. The most influential situations figure to revolve around the situations at Alabama and Notre Dame, both of whom figure to be in the expanded playoff hunt once again. Some of the biggest names moving around this season include Mike Shanahan, who takes over as OC at Indiana, Bobby Petrino, who is back at Arkansas, and Eric Bieniemy, who lands at UCLA after helping the Chiefs to two Super Bowl titles.
Note: This DOES NOT include when one of two co-coordinators leaves and the other stays, only complete changeovers.
AKRON: Taylor Housewright replaces Billy Fessler
ALABAMA: Nick Sheridan replaces Tommy Rees
ARIZONA: Dino Babers replaces Brennan Carroll
ARIZONA STATE: Marcus Arroyo replaces Beau Baldwin
ARKANSAS: Bobby Petrino replaces Dan Enos
ARKANSAS STATE: Keith Heckendorf replaces Logan Kilgore
ARMY: Cody Worley replaces Matt Drinkall / Drew Thatcher
AUBURN: Derrick Nix replaces Philip Montgomery
BAYLOR: Jake Spavital replaces Jeff Grimes
BOISE STATE: Dirk Koetter / Nate Potter replaces Bush Hamdan
BOSTON COLLEGE: Will Lawing replaces Steve Shimko
BUFFALO: Dave Patenaude replaces DJ Mangas
CENTRAL MICHIGAN: Jim McElwain replaces Paul Petrino
CALIFORNIA: Mike Bloesch replaces Jake Spavital
COLORADO: Pat Shurmur replaces Sean Lewis
CONNECTICUT: Gordon Sammis replaces Nick Charlton
DUKE: Jonathan Brewer replaces Kevin Johns
EASTERN MICHIGAN: Mike Piatkowski replaces Chris Creighton
EAST CAROLINA: John David Baker replaces Donnie Kirkpatrick
GEORGIA SOUTHERN: Ryan Aplin replaces Bryan Ellis
GEORGIA STATE: Jim Chaney replaces Trent McKnight
HAWAII: Timmy Chang replaces Roman Sapolu / Ian Shoemaker
HOUSTON: Kevin Barbay replaces Dana Holgorsen
INDIANA: Mike Shanahan replaces Walt Bell / Anthony Tucker
IOWA: Tim Lester replaces Brian Ferentz
IOWA STATE: Taylor Mouser replaces Nathan Scheelhaase
JAMES MADISON: Dean Kennedy replaces Mike Shanahan
KANSAS: Jeff Grimes / Jim Zebrowski replaces Andy Kotelnicki
KANSAS STATE: Conor Riley / Matt Wells replaces Collin Klein
KENT STATE: Mark Carney replaces Matt Johnson
KENTUCKY: Bush Hamdan replaces Liam Coen
LOUISIANA-MONROE: Bryant Vincent replaces Matt Kubik
LSU: Joe Sloan / Cortez Hankton replaces Mike Denbrock
MARSHALL: Seth Doege replaces Clint Trickett
MASSACHUSETTS: Shane Montgomery replaces Steve Casula
MICHIGAN: Kirk Campbell replaces Sherrone Moore
MICHIGAN STATE: Brian Lindgren replaces Jay Johnson
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE: Bodie Reeder replaces Mitch Stewart
MISSISSIPPI STATE: Jeff Lebby replaces Kevin Barbay
NORTHERN ILLINOIS: Wesley Beschorner replaces Eric Eidsness
NAVY: Drew Cronic replaces Grant Chesnut
NEVADA: Matt Lubick replaces Derek Sage
NEW MEXICO: Jason Beck replaces Bryant Vincent
NEW MEXICO STATE: Tyler Wright replaces Tim Beck
NORTHWESTERN: Zach Lujan replaces Mike Bajakian
NOTRE DAME: Mike Denbrock replaces Gerad Parker
OKLAHOMA: Joe Jon Finley / Seth Littrell replaces Jeff Lebby
OREGON STATE: Ryan Gunderson replaces Brian Lindgren
PENN STATE: Andy Kotelnicki replaces Mike Yurcich
PITTSBURGH: Kade Bell replaces Frank Cignetti Jr.
SOUTHERN ALABAMA: Rob Ezell replaces Major Applewhite
SAM HOUSTON STATE: Brad Cornelsen replaces Brad Cornelson
SAN DIEGO STATE: Sean Lewis replaces Ryan Lindley
SAN JOSE STATE: Craig Stutzmann replaces Kevin McGiven
SOUTHERN MISS: Chip Long replaces Sam Gregg
SYRACUSE: Mike Johnson / Jeff Nixon replaces Jason Beck
TEXAS A&M: Collin Klein / Holmon Wiggins replaces Bobby Petrino
TROY: Sean Reagan replaces Joe Craddock
TULANE: Joe Craddock / Evan McKissack replaces Slade Nagle
UCF: Tim Harris Jr. replaces Darin Hinshaw
UCLA: Eric Bieniemy replaces Chip Kelly
UTEP: Jake Brown / Ryan Stanchek replaces Scotty Ohara
VANDERBILT: Tim Beck replaces Joey Lynch
WESTERN KENTUCKY: Will Friend replaces Drew Hollingshead / Zack Lankford
WESTERN MICHIGAN: Walt Bell replaces Billy Cosh
WASHINGTON: Brennan Carroll replaces Ryan Grubb / JaMarcus Shephard
WYOMING: Jay Johnson replaces Tim Polasek
Defensive coordinator changes
There were 67 offensive coordinator changes. There are fewer on the defensive side of the ball, 53 to be exact. This is typical. There aren’t as many high-profile changes in this grouping as in the offense, although three of last year’s four CFP participants, Alabama, Michigan and Washington will be retooling in all facets this season, including on the defensive side of the ball.
ALABAMA: Kane Wommack / Maurice Linguist replaces Kevin Steele
ARIZONA: Duane Akina replaces Johnny Nansen
AUBURN: D.J. Durkin / Charles Kelly replaces Ron Roberts
BALL STATE: Jeff Knowles replaces Tyler Stockton
BOISE STATE: Erik Chinander / Tyler Stockton replaces Spencer Danielson / Kane Ioane
BOSTON COLLEGE: Tim Lewis replaces Aazaar Abdul-Rahim / Sean Duggan
BUFFALO: Joe Bowen replaces Robert Wright
COLORADO: Robert Livingston replaces Charles Kelly
CONNECTICUT: Matt Brock replaces Lou Spanos
DUKE: Jonathan Patke replaces Tyler Santucci
GEORGIA STATE: Kevin Sherrer replaces Chad Staggs
GEORGIA TECH: Tyler Santucci replaces Kevin Sherrer / Andrew Thacker
HAWAII: Dennis Thurman replaces Jacob Yoro
HOUSTON: Shiel Wood replaces Doug Belk
INDIANA: Bryant Haines replaces Matt Guerrieri / Chad Wilt
JACKSONVILLE STATE: Luke Olson replaces Zac Alley
JAMES MADISON: Lyle Hemphill replaces Bryant Haines
LOUISIANA: Jim Salgado replaces LaMar Morgan
LOUISIANA-MONROE: Earnest Hill replaces Vic Koenning
LOUISIANA TECH: Jeremiah Johnson replaces Scott Power
LSU: Blake Baker replaces Matt House
MEMPHIS: Jordon Hankins / Spence Nowinsky replaces Matt Barnes
MICHIGAN: Don Martindale replaces Jesse Minter
MICHIGAN STATE: Joe Rossi replaces Scottie Hazelton
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE: Brian Stewart replaces Scott Shafer
MINNESOTA: Corey Hetherman replaces Nick Monroe / Joe Rossi
MISSISSIPPI STATE: Matt Barnes / Coleman Hutzler replaces Matt Brock
MISSOURI: Corey Batoon replaces Blake Baker
NEVADA: Kane Ioane replaces Kwame Agyeman / Mike Bethea
NEW MEXICO: Nick Howell replaces Troy Reffett
NEW MEXICO STATE: Joe Morris replaces Nate Dreiling / Melvin Rice
NORTHWESTERN: Tim McGarigle replaces David Braun
OHIO U: John Hauser replaces Spence Nowinsky
OREGON STATE: Keith Heyward replaces Trent Bray
PENN STATE: Tom Allen replaces Manny Diaz / Anthony Poindexter
SOUTHERN ALABAMA: Will Windham replaces Corey Batoon
SAM HOUSTON STATE: Skyler Cassity replaces Clayton Carlin / Joe Morris
SAN DIEGO STATE: Eric Schmidt replaces Kurt Mattix
SOUTHERN MISS: Clay Bignell replaces Dan O’Brien
SYRACUSE: Elijah Robinson / Robert Wright replaces Rocky Long
TCU: Andy Avalos replaces Joe Gillespie
TEXAS A&M: Jay Bateman replaces D. J. Durkin
TEXAS STATE: Dexter McCoil / Bradley Dale Peveto replaces Jonathan Patke
TROY: Nathan Burton / Dontae Wright replaces Greg Gasparato / Tayler Polk
TULANE: Greg Gasparato / Tayler Polk replaces Shiel Wood
UCLA: Ikaika Malloe replaces D’Anton Lynn
USC: D’Anton Lynn / Eric Henderson replaces Alex Grinch
UTAH STATE: Nate Dreiling replaces Joe Cauthen
UTEP: J.J. Clark / Kelvin Sigler replaces Bradley Dale Peveto
VANDERBILT: Clark Lea replaces Nick Howell
WESTERN MICHIGAN: Scott Power / Jeff Popovich replaces Lou Esposito
WASHINGTON: Stephen Belichick replaces William Inge / Chuck Morrell
WYOMING: Aaron Bohl replaces Jay Sawvel
