MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, June 11th
Welcome to my semi-weekly first five inning article! Twice a week throughout baseball season I’ll write up some of the more intriguing first five inning plays of the day. Handicapping pitchers is such a big part of betting baseball, and betting first fives is something I have gravitated to as a bettor.
As always, make sure to keep an eye out for Adam Burke’s columns which will appear daily. Adam is our primary baseball mind, and will be so once again throughout this season.
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Throughout the season I will be keeping track of the results of this article, which you can view here.
MLB Best Bets
Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds
Triston McKenzie vs Brent Suter
It would seem Triston McKenzie and I are destined to meet on Tuesdays and Thursdays. For those new to the article, McKenzie has been a regular target for me in the first five articles during the week, and for good reason.
In his last three starts McKenzie has allowed 12 earned runs over 15.1 innings of work. He’s allowed eight home runs, walked eight hitters and owns a 1.83 WHIP. His 7.04 ERA over that stretch is terrible, but his 8.95 FIP would indicate we still haven’t seen how bad it can get.
So once again, I’ll take my chances against McKenzie. However, I’m not sure if I trust the Reds’ pitching today.
Brent Suter is scheduled to start for Cincinnati. Suter sports a 3.86 ERA but his 4.55 FIP indicates he is pitching worse than his ERA.
The Guardians are eighth in wRC+ (107) and 10th in wOBA (.315) for the season. Last time I tried to fade McKenzie, this lineup came storming back from a 5-0 deficit and made me sweat the result.
Instead, I’ll trust the Reds to get to McKenzie at home. Over the last month Cincinnati is eighth in wOBA (.323) and 11th in wRC+ (104) at home. The lineup should be able to provide enough offense to surpass its team total early.
Play: Reds F5 TT OV 2.5 (+120)
New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals
Marcus Stroman vs Brady Singer
Two pitchers take the mound tonight for their respective teams with signs of regression in their profile.
Marcus Stroman comes into his 14th start with a 3.04 ERA, but a 4.82 FIP and 4.53 xERA indicate he’s been playing with fire.
Stroman has seen his fastball velocity decline greatly this season to 90.3 miles per hour on average. He ranks in the 41st percentile or lower in chase rate (27.4%), whiff rate (22.4%) and strikeout rate (18.4%). Stroman has also walked 10.0% of opposing hitters to this point of the season.
Pitchers cannot usually get away with routinely giving up free runners while also failing to strikeout hitters. Stroman has done so with some luck on balls in play (.248). Being a groundball pitcher like he is it makes sense that his BABIP allowed would be on the lower end, but this is extreme.
The Royals are one of the better lineups in baseball. They rank ninth in wOBA (.317) and 11th in wRC+ (102). At home, Kansas City is fourth and seventh in those respective categories. This lineup should be able to generate some offense against a pitcher with Stroman’s profile.
Meanwhile, Brady Singer’s ERA (2.76) is nearly a full point lower than FIP (3.67) and his xERA is nearly two points higher (4.50).
Singer’s big issue is his contact numbers. He ranks in the 38th percentile in hard-hit rate (40.3%) and the 31st percentile in barrel rate (8.6%). If there was a lineup that was going to make Singer pay, it would be the Yankees who got Juan Soto back yesterday.
Two pitchers with regression signs and two of the best lineups in baseball. What else is there to expect, but runs today?
Play: F5 OVER 4.5 (-135)
