Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, June 20, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still improving at 62-24 for +3.15 units.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-218 at COL)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3131-2735 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -399.18 units and an ROI of -6.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-112 vs. SEA), NY YANKEES (-155 vs. BAL), SAN DIEGO (-105 vs. MIL), OAKLAND (+136 vs. KC), COLORADO (+180 vs. LAD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: TB-MIN, PLAY UNDER in: KC-OAK
Trend: CLE was 10-2 (+8.45 units) in the -120 to +125 line range by starter Logan Allen last year (4-2, +1.92 units this season)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-112 vs. SEA)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY (WATCH FOR MINNESOTA vs TB)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-108 at CLE), ST LOUIS (-115 vs. SF)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (-218 at COL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: TB-MIN, PLAY UNDER in: KC-OAK
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this “super” majority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and, if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS RL (at COL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 through 6/9, they are 488-409 for -18.15 units. This is well below usual standards.
System Matches: WASHINGTON, LA DODGERS, ST LOUIS, MILWAUKEE, CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA, HOUSTON, OAKLAND, BALTIMORE
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still improving at 62-24 for +3.15 units.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-218 at COL)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is 33-21 since opening day ‘24 and has lost -9.38 units, a season-long ROI of -17.4%.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-218 at COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams produced a 162-198 record for -11.50 units (ROI -3.2%). This angle had one of its worst weeks ever two weeks ago though, 6-19 for -12.5 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OAKLAND (+136 vs KC), BALTIMORE (+130 at NYY)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 144-152 record, for +5.68 units (ROI 1.9%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OAKLAND (+136 vs. KC), BALTIMORE (+130 at NYY)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1434-1871 (43.4%) for -196.90 units and an ROI of -6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (+120 at WSH), SEATTLE (-108 at CLE), KANSAS CITY (-162 at OAK), MILWAUKEE (-115 at SD)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3131-2735 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -399.18 units and an ROI of -6.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-112 vs. SEA), NY YANKEES (-155 vs. BAL), SAN DIEGO (-105 vs. MIL), OAKLAND (+136 vs. KC), COLORADO (+180 vs. LAD)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BALTIMORE +130 (+16 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MINNESOTA -142 (+17 diff), HOUSTON -166 (+22 diff), KANSAS CITY -162 (+21 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: KC-OAK OVER 7.5 (+0.9), TB-MIN OVER 7.5 (+0.8), BAL-NYY OVER 8.5 (+0.7)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) ARIZONA (36-38) at (902) WASHINGTON (36-37)
Trend: AZ not as good vs. LH starters (11-15, -8.14 units)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA (+120 at WSH)
(903) LOS ANGELES-NL (46-30) at (904) COLORADO (26-48)
Trend: LAD better vs. LH starters (20-7, +3.40 units)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-218 at COL)
(905) SAN FRANCISCO (36-39) at (906) ST LOUIS (36-37)
Trend: SF not great bet at night (16-26, -14.21 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-105 vs STL)
(907) MILWAUKEE (44-30) at (908) SAN DIEGO (38-40)
Trend: MIL trending Over vs. RH starters (32-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(909) SEATTLE (44-32) at (910) CLEVELAND (45-26)
Trend: CLE good so far vs. AL East/West (24-13, +10.37 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-112 vs SEA)
(911) TAMPA BAY (35-39) at (912) MINNESOTA (41-33)
Trend: TB not great bet vs. RH starters (23-32, -16.62 units)
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (+120 at MIN)
(913) HOUSTON (34-40) at (914) CHICAGO-AL (20-55)
Trend: HOU trending Under on the road (11-22 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(915) KANSAS CITY (41-34) at (916) OAKLAND (28-48)
Trend: OAK not as good bet vs. RH starters (20-38, -11.28 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+136 vs. KC)
MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(901) ARIZONA (36-38) at (902) WASHINGTON (36-37)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 4-9 (-6.73 units) in home games vs. teams with losing records in last two seasons
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (-142 vs. AZ)
(909) SEATTLE (44-32) at (910) CLEVELAND (45-26)
Trend: Luis Castillo is 4-14 (-9.92 units) as a shorter road underdog (-105 to +120) in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (*if they fall into this line range, -108 currently)
Trend: CLE was 10-2 (+8.45 units) in the -120 to +125 line range by starter Logan Allen last year (4-2, +1.92 units this season)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-112 vs SEA)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow 6/21)
