NFL best bets for Week 2 from Wes Reynolds

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Wes Reynolds
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Best bets for Week 2 of the NFL season

Wes Reynolds is on VSiN Tonight (9 p.m.-12 a.m. ET / 6-9 p.m. PT) and will be posting his weekly college football and NFL best bets for us. He is also one of the hosts of our Long Shots golf betting podcast. He also writes weekly golf previews 

 

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NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Power Ratings | Week 2 NFL Hub

(odds as of September 15, 11:00 p.m. PT)

Raiders at Bills (-8, 47)

Josh Allen had his usual struggles against the New York Jets last Monday night, but even the most partisan of Bills fans could not fathom having four turnovers (including three interceptions) and losing on the road after Aaron Rodgers was injured four plays into the game.

Now the Bills come home licking their wounds on a short week, but despite one less extra day of prep, this is a good spot for Buffalo to get right. Josh Allen has 52 regular season wins as an NFL starter and 37 of them have been by 7 points or more.

It is not only a historically good spot for Allen but for Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott as well. McDermott is 10-3-1 ATS off a loss and is 5-0 ATS as a favorite of 7 or more.

Jimmy G was efficient in his first game as the Raiders starter but was never really under pressure as the Broncos pass rush was non-existent. He will see more pressure here from a Bills club that had three sacks last week.

The Raiders have been preparing at the Greenbrier down in West Virginia, so the time difference will not matter here, but what will matter is a motivated Bills team that may be getting sold off a bit too prematurely.

Bet: Bills -8 (to -9.5)

Commanders at Broncos (-3.5, 38.5)

While it is dangerous to back Russell Wilson as a favorite above 3, we are essentially laying the same price as last week against a worse team.

The Broncos had only a 6.9% pressure rate last week and failed to sack Jimmy G. One can reasonably expect Vance Joseph’s defense to fare better here considering they are facing Sam Howell, who was sacked six times. Those sacks were not solely due to a reshuffled offensive line, but also to poor decision making from Howell. He looked indecisive and holds the ball for too long like a lot of young quarterbacks.

Although the Broncos only scored 16 points, Wilson was more efficient (79.4% completions) but only threw for 177 yards largely due to not having anyone to stretch the field. Well, enter Jerry Jeudy who missed the opener due to a hamstring injury. Jeudy’s return will also allow Denver to run heavier play action, which they implemented last week.

One thing I like to do in the betting, and especially in the NFL, is to back a team that the market backed the week prior only to be disappointed. Those bettors typically will not come back on a team that let them down. Denver is one of those teams this week.

Bet: Broncos -3.5 (Bet to -4)

TEASER TIME

Bears +8.5/Patriots +8.5

TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Jets/Cowboys UN 38.5

The Cowboys held the Giants to just 2.6 yards per play in Week 1 and were +3 in the turnover margin along with posting a touchdown on both defense and special teams.

Meanwhile, the Jets tallied five sacks and gained four turnovers in their victory on Monday night over Buffalo.

It is Zach Wilson now calling the signals for the Jets as Aaron Rodgers is lost for the season with a torn Achilles. Wilson did a solid job in relief (14/21 140 yards, TD, INT), but now the Cowboys have some film and can implement a different game plan for former No. 2 overall pick.

At the same time, Dallas only managed 265 yards of offense last week and Dak Prescott was not exactly sharp (13/25 143 yards).

This screams 20-13 game to me.

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