NFL Week 7 reactions and futures

By
Mike Somich
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536
 

 

 

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It was a week that offered a couple of show me games, with Detroit and Miami taking on Baltimore and Philadelphia, respectively. As I mentioned last week, I’ve been lower on the Lions than the market and was validated by that road performance versus the Ravens. Detroit is better than they showed this weekend. It was not the best spot with back-to-back road games, but they are still a ways off the elite in the league with issues in the secondary and outside of the dome.

Philadelphia handled Miami, but I was impressed with the Dolphins’ effort while missing quite a few pieces. Waddle was in and out of the game, there was no Achane, but most importantly were the injuries on the offensive line and at cornerback. Miami was missing their three interior offensive linemen and two starting cornerbacks. Keep an eye on their health in the coming weeks. It’s difficult getting healthy in-season, but if they can find a way to get those key pieces back, I believe Miami is a legitimate contender.

This week saw quite a bit of movement in my power rankings. Baltimore got a nice upgrade and seemed to have figured out their one-game issues in the red zone. The Seahawks won and covered, propelled by a defense that needs some respect put on their name. Their cornerback duo of Woolen and Witherspoon should quickly be moving up the ranks of the top cornerback tandems in the league.

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Now let’s look at the biggest two power rankings adjustments that I made from the games on Sunday:

Move them up: Kansas City Chiefs

Since the preseason, I have banged the drum for this Chiefs stop unit when I said they would be a top-five NFL defense. They have delivered on that prediction thus far and have the opportunity to continue to improve. They welcomed back Charles Omenihu from suspension this week, and he quickly introduced himself to the opposing quarterback to the tune of a 24% pressure rate. Add in the improvement we have seen from Trent McDuffie this season on the outside and Willie Gay on the inside, and this is a formidable defense.

However, this upgrade is due to the Mahomes-led offense, which seems to be rolling into form seven weeks into the season. We always knew the Kelce connection would be there, but Mahomes is starting to get in stride with the other weapons on the field, including rookie wideout Rachee Rice. The addition of Mecole Hardman also addressed some of the depth issues on the outside. The Chiefs/Dolphins matchup in Germany will be one to wake up for in two weeks.

Move them down: Buffalo Bills

This was the full two-point drop, which is rare midseason, but the Bills deserve it. This is the aggregate of three poor performances after the nice Dolphins win. The Jags loss was excusable due to the spot; the Giants effort was coming back from London, but this Pats loss was just bad. The Patriots looked like a team who had called it a season, and the Buffalo defense gave up 29 points, including a game-clinching touchdown drive with less than two minutes on the clock. The loss of Matt Milano has been huge, and he won’t be back for a while since he is on the IR.

The issues are not just on the defensive side of the ball. This Bills team was stuck on 10 for a good chunk of the game against New England and needed two touchdowns in the last six minutes of the game to even get the lead. The week prior versus the Giants was not much better, mustering up just 14 points.

Early Week 8 plays

Closing line value pays off in Week 7! We got under 51 in the Chargers/Chiefs game, which got as low as 47.5 and closed at 48. The game landed on 48, which moves this section of the article to a nice 5-1 start to the season.

This week, we will head to the Pacific Northwest and take the under in the Browns/Seahawks tilt. I mentioned this Seattle defense earlier, and this is a great spot for them to show out with PJ Walker most likely starting (and I am not worried if it’s Watson) and Ward seeming doubtful as well. This Cleveland defense should also be able to keep up with Seattle’s offense, which is still dealing with injuries on the offensive line. I expect this to kick off around 38, so let’s lock it in at 40.5.

The bet: Browns / Seahawks u40.5

MVP Market

King Mahomes returns to the top of the mountain as the +275 favorite this week, and honestly, it’s not an awful price. He is the deserving favorite, playing for the best team in the NFL and seems to be gelling with the rest of the offensive unit.

Lamar Jackson would be the only other player that I would consider adding this week. He looked great cutting up a good Lions team, and they have quite a few marquee games left with an offense that seems to be clicking. I still believe you need to get the number one seed in the conference to win, and that will be tough with the Chiefs as the target.

Season Long Bets Recap

Win Totals:

Titans u6.5 (bet after Week 1)

Jags +125 to win the AFC South (bet after Week 3)

Chargers to miss the playoffs -115 (bet after Week 4)

Jalen Hurts MVP +700 (after Week 5)

Cardinals u4.5 Wins (after Week 5)

Broncos u4.5 Wins +100 (after Week 6)

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