Tuley’s Takes Today 9/20: Tuesday Best Bets, updated betting stats, Contest Corner


OK, maybe everybody doesn’t make a run!
After saying that with all the crazy rallies in the NFL on Sunday, Monday brought us two blowouts by the Bills and Eagles as the Titans and Vikings didn’t rally.
I would normally recap last night’s action in this space, but I filed a separate story for VSiN.com HERE. If you want the condensed version, check out our regular daily recaps below.
As for our Best Bets, I lost badly with the Titans %plussign% 10 at the Bills as they lost 41-7. Personally, I also lost a 2-team, 6-point teaser that was alive from the Steelers %plussign% 7.5 to the Vikings %plussign% 8.5 as the Eagles also routed the Vikes 24-7.
At least I won my lone MLB 1st 5 inning play on the Mets %plussign% 100 as Max Scherzer came through like we hoped with 6 perfect innings as the Mets led 3-0 after the first 5.on the way to a 7-2 victory.
Let’s recap the rest of Monday’s (full-game) betting results and look for more plays on Tuesday. In addition, we update our early NFL Week 3 recommendations.

Monday’s Recaps


NFL: Bills routed Titans 41-7 and Eagles routed Vikings 24-7 in Monday Night Football doubleheader to wrap up Week 2. They both easily covered as home favorites (Bills closed -10/Eagles closed -3). Titans-Bills went Over the closing total of 47.5 points while Vikings-Eagles stayed way Under 49.5.

More NFL: Faves finished 9-6 SU in Week 2 with 1 pick-'em (Commanders-Lions), but dogs still led 9-5-1 ATS. Home teams went 11-5 SU and 8-7-1 ATS while Unders dominated again at 10-5-1 (after going 11-5 in Week 1). ON THE SEASON, faves lead 19-11-1 SU with 1 PK, but dogs lead 17-13-1 ATS (56.7 percent). Home teams are 17-14-1 SU and ATS. Unders lead 21-10-1 (67.7 percent), including 6-1 in primetime games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights.

MLB: Faves went 6-3 Monday with the upsets by the Tigers (%plussign% 180 in 11-0 rout at Orioles), Astros (%plussign% 107 in 4-0 win at Rays) and Mets (%plussign% 100 in 7-2 win at Brewers in Max Scherzer's perfect 6-inning return as they also clinched a playoff spot). Road teams went 5-4. Overs 6-3.

More MLB: Faves lead 1,309-850 SU (60.6 percent) on the season with 34 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now back well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 1,161-1,040 (52.7 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but has been on the rise). Unders lead 1,082-1,006-115 (51.8 percent).

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor is still at 2,012 live entries after NFL Week 2 as the 40 on the Bills and 2 on the Eagles easily advanced in Monday's games. Sunday's eliminations were on the Browns (358), Bengals (192), Raiders (77), Colts (13), Ravens (5), Steelers (3), Panthers (2), Commanders (1) and Seahawks (1) – plus the 21 entries that didn’t get submitted.

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected went 3-2 in NFL Week 2 (6-4 on season) with wins on top choice Jaguars %plussign% 4 vs. Colts, Patriots -2 at Steelers and Packers -10 vs. Bears. Losses were on the Bengals -7 at Cowboys and Saints %plussign% 2.5 vs. Buccaneers. Out of the 4,691-entry field, there are 15 that are still perfect at 10-0. In addition, last year’s runner-up, Hannibal Barca, is among the 85 entries at 9-1.

SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected went 3-2 in NFL Week 2 (6-4 on season) with wins on Patriots -2 at Steelers, Packers -10 vs. Bears and Jaguars %plussign% 3.5 vs. Colts. Losses were on top choice Saints %plussign% 2.5 vs. Buccaneers and Bengals -7 at Cowboys. SportsAnalytics24/7 and Jon Grace are the only 2 entries at 10-0.

Tuesday’s Takes

Cardinals 1st 5 %plussign% 105 at Padres: We get veteran Adam Wainwright (11-9, Cards 17-12 in his starts, 3.29 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) vs. Mike Clevinger (5-7, 4.47 ERA, 1.22 WHIP). I don’t see why the Padres should be favored except that they’re at home. Wainwright. If looking for a second play, I would go with Royals/Greinke 1st 5 %plussign% 100 at home vs. the Twins. 

Early NFL Week 3 plays:

Lions %plussign% 7.5 at Vikings: I gave this out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night and in the Monday morning version of this column. I hope a lot of readers grabbed it as the hook didn’t last long and now is long-gone after the VIkings were blown out by the Eagles on Monday night and the line is down to 6.5 at some books at 6 at William Hill and Caesars books as of early Tuesday morning.

Dolphins %plussign% 4.5 vs. Bills: I also gave this out Sunday night/Monday morning as I felt it couldn't go any higher even if the Bills won as expected as 10-point home favorites. Well, I was wrong as the line is up to 5.5 after the Bills’ 41-7 rout of the Titans. However, I’m not looking to bet it again as 5 is even less of a key number than 4, so I’ll just let my %plussign% 4.5 bet ride.