HomeCollege BasketballBetting Splits and CBB Sharp Money Picks for Sunday March 3rd

    Betting Splits and CBB Sharp Money Picks for Sunday March 3rd

    Josh Appelbaum examines where smart money is leaning for Rider-Canisius and Iona-Marist.

    -

    Today the weekend wraps up with a 19-game College Basketball slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.

    In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of games today.

     

    1 p.m. ET: Rider (-1.5, 143) at Canisius

    Rider (13-16) has won five straight games and just brushed aside Niagara 71-61. Similarly, Canisius (12-15) has won four of their last five games and just edged Mount St. Mary’s 61-56. This line opened at a pick’em. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know which team to take. However, despite this 50/50 bet split we’ve seen Rider move from a pick’em to a 1.5-point road favorite. Some shops are even up to Rider -2. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even as, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action on both sides and have no reason to adjust the number. However, not all bets are created equally, as some are $5 bets from public bettors while others are dime wagers ($1000) from pros. Based on the line move, it appears as though the bigger sharper wagers are going with the road team. Rider has the better offensive efficiency (216th vs 265th) and a huge edge at the free throw stripe (76% vs 63%), which could prove crucial in a tight game. Rider is 10-8 in conference play while Canisius is just 7-10. For those looking to protect themselves from a close win that may not cover the number, Rider is -120 on the moneyline. Rider beat Canisius at home 79-76 in overtime in early January. Road favorites are 18-10 straight up (64%) in MAAC conference play this season.

    2 p.m. ET: Iona at Marist (-3.5, 132)

    Iona (13-15) has lost five of their last six games and just got rolled by Quinnipiac 82-64. Conversely, Marist (16-10) has won six of their last seven games and just outlasted Fairfield 58-55. This line opened with Marist listed as a 3-point home favorite. Pros seem to think this opener was a tad bit short and have driven Marist up from -3 to -3.5. This line move is especially notable because this is one of the smallest and lowest bet games of the day, involving little to no public interest. So, based on the line move, we can reasonably deduce that pros have specifically targeted the home team. Marist is receiving 70% of spread bets and 80% of spread dollars, further evidence of heavy smart money is their favor. Marist has the far better defensive efficiency (68th vs 204th) and is much better at the free throw line (69% vs 65%). Marist is only allowing 62 PPG compared to Iona allowing 72 PPG. Marist is 8-3 at home while Iona is 4-7 on the road. Marist is also much better in conference play (11-6 vs 8-9). Marist beat Iona on the road 68-64 in late November. Marist is -160 on the moneyline for those who are wary of laying the points in what could be a tight game.

    Josh Appelbaum
    Josh Appelbaum
    Josh Appelbaum is a Sports Betting Analyst at VSiN and has been working in the betting industry since 2011. He has been with VSiN since 2019, contributing data-driven articles to VSiN.com, hosting the Morning Bets and Market Insights Podcasts and appearing on VSiN and DraftKings programs such as Follow the Money, The Lombardi Line, Sharp Money and The Sweat. He is a contrarian bettor and also the author of The Everything Guide to Sports Betting.

    Must Read

    white sox

    Should You Bet Against the Chicago White Sox in Every Game?

    0
    Betting against the White Sox this season Update: The White Sox were shut out by the Twins 7-0 Monday to drop to 3-19. The record for...