College basketball picks today
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday’s College Basketball slate.
8 p.m. ET: Denver at North Dakota State (-2.5, 158.5)
Denver (11-7) has rotated wins and losses over their past four games but is coming off a 99-80 win over South Dakota State. On the flip side, North Dakota State (8-10) has dropped six of their last seven games and just fell to Omaha 96-92 in overtime. This line opened with North Dakota State listed as a 2-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. If North Dakota State has lost six of their last seven and has a worse record, then why are they favored tonight? Shouldn’t Denver be laying points, not North Dakota State? Pros have embraced the fishy side, driving North Dakota State up from -2 to -2.5. Some shops are even inching toward -3. North Dakota State is receiving 77% of bets and 83% of money. This might appear as a “public” play based upon the lopsided percentages. However, this game is extremely low bet without any public attention. So it’s likely those percentages are coming from sharper bettors who have targeted this tiny matchup. North Dakota State is 5-2 at home. Meanwhile, Denver is just 3-5 on the road. With oddsmakers projecting a tight game, the safer play might be to back North Dakota State on the moneyline at -150. North Dakota State is receiving 57% of moneyline bets but 78% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split to win the game straight up.
11 p.m. ET: Washington State at Stanford (-3, 144.5)
Washington State (12-5) has won three of their last four games and just had a massive upset win over Arizona 73-70. Meanwhile, Stanford (9-7) has won four of their last five games and just took down Utah 79-73. This line opened with Stanford listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. We’ve seen Stanford move from -2.5 to -3 or even -3.5 at some shops, signaling smart money laying the points with the home team. Stanford is receiving 74% of bets and 87% of money, signaling public support but also heavy sharp action. Conference short home favorites -5 or less with a line move in their favor are 228-193 ATS (54.2%) over the past two seasons. This could also be a classic let down spot for Washington State after their big upset win over Arizona. Stanford possesses several offensive statistical advantages, as the Cardinal have the better effective field goal percentage (55.7 vs 52.6), better three-point shooting percentage (38.6 vs 33.5) and better free-throw shooting percentage (72.5 vs 69.6). Stanford is 7-2 at home while Washington State is 1-2 on the road. Those looking to back the sharp Stanford move but wary of laying the points in a tight game could instead target the Cardinal on the moneyline at -160. Stanford is receiving 73% of moneyline bets but 94% of moneyline dollars, a sharp bet discrepancy.
