HomeCollege BasketballBetting Splits and CBB Sharp Money Picks for Tuesday February 20th

    Betting Splits and CBB Sharp Money Picks for Tuesday February 20th

    Josh Appelbaum examines where smart money is leaning for San Diego State-Utah State and Baylor-BYU.

    -

    Tonight we have a loaded 25-game College Basketball slate to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.

    In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s Super Tuesday action.

     

    9 p.m. ET: San Diego State at Utah State (-2.5, 144.5)

    San Diego State (20-6, ranked 19th) has won two straight games and just brushed aside New Mexico 81-70. On the flip side, Utah State (21-5) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Colorado State 75-55. This line opened with Utah State listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. If San Diego State is the ranked team, why are they a dog getting points tonight against an unranked team? The public says the wrong team is favored and they’re rushing to the window to back trendy dog San Diego State. However, despite 73% of spread bets backing San Diego State we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Utah State -1.5 to -2.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Utah State, with pros backing the fishy contrarian home favorite and fading the trendy dog Aztecs. Utah State is only receiving 27% of spread bets but a whopping 73% of spread dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers siding with the unpopular home team. Utah State has the better offensive efficiency (47th vs 51st), better field goal percentage (49% vs 45%) and takes better care of the ball (turnover percentage 100th vs 145th). Pros seem to be targeting Utah State on the moneyline (-145) as the Aggies are receiving 43% of moneyline bets but 72% of moneyline dollars. Utah State is 11-1 at home. San Diego State is 4-6 on the road. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 21-13 SU (62%) this season and 65-26 SU (71%) since the start of last season. This is also a revenge spot for Utah State, who fell to San Diego State 81-67 on the road earlier this month.

    9 p.m. ET: Baylor at BYU (-4, 155)

    Baylor (19-6, ranked 11th) has won two straight games and just took down West Virginia 94-81. Meanwhile, BYU (18-7, ranked 25th) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Oklahoma State 93-83. This line opened with BYU listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Once again, the public thinks the wrong team is favored and they’re hammering trendy dog Baylor plus the points. After all, Baylor is ranked much higher than BYU so you might as well take the points, right? Not so fast, say the wiseguys. Despite 74% of spread bets backing Baylor, we’ve seen the line move further toward BYU -2.5 to -4. This indicates sharp action laying the points with BYU, triggering notable reverse line movement in favor of the fishy contrarian home favorite. BYU is only receiving 26% of spread bets but 70% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” pro bet split. Both teams rank top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency but BYU has the better defensive efficiency (53rd vs 77th) and also turns the ball over far less (76th vs 172nd). BYU also has an edge on the boards (40 RPG vs 35 RPG). Ken Pom has BYU winning by three points (80-77). As a result, bettors looking to back BYU might be wise to play the Cougars on the moneyline (-175) in order to protect themselves from a tight win that may not cover the number. BYU is receiving 37% of moneyline bets but 57% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of pros banking on BYU to win the game straight up. BYU is 13-2 at home. Baylor is 3-3 on the road. When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite is 28-6 SU (82%) this season. Big 12 home favorites are 46-15 SU (75%) this season as well.

    Josh Appelbaum
    Josh Appelbaum
    Josh Appelbaum is a Sports Betting Analyst at VSiN and has been working in the betting industry since 2011. He has been with VSiN since 2019, contributing data-driven articles to VSiN.com, hosting the Morning Bets and Market Insights Podcasts and appearing on VSiN and DraftKings programs such as Follow the Money, The Lombardi Line, Sharp Money and The Sweat. He is a contrarian bettor and also the author of The Everything Guide to Sports Betting.

    Must Read

    jayden daniels

    2024 NFL Draft Best Bets and Mock Draft from Tim Murray

    0
    It is silly season right now with the NFL Draft on Thursday and here is my crack at a mock draft. It is impossible...