HomeCollege BasketballBetting Splits and CBB Sharp Money Picks for Tuesday March 12th

    Betting Splits and CBB Sharp Money Picks for Tuesday March 12th

    Josh Appelbaum examines where smart money is leaning for George Washington-La Salle, Canisius-Mount St. Mary's and Miami-Boston College.

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    Today we have a loaded slate of 23 College Basketball Conference Tournament games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.

    In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.

     

    2 p.m. ET: George Washington vs La Salle (-3, 146.5)

    This is the first round of the Atlantic 10 conference tournament. George Washington (15-16) is the 15-seed and just lost to Duquesne 67-65 in the last game of the regular season. Meanwhile, La Salle (15-16) is the 10-seed and just ended their regular season with a 64-54 loss to Loyola Chicago. This line opened with La Salle listed as a 2-point neutral site favorite. This line remained frozen overnight but then this morning we saw game-day steam hit La Salle, driving the favorite up from -2 to -3. La Salle is receiving 78% of spread bets and 88% of spread dollars, signaling a heavy combination of both public and sharp support. La Salle takes far better care of the ball (turnover percentage 32nd vs 182nd) and also has the better defensive efficiency (234th vs 283rd). Ken Pom has La Salle winning by one point (78-77). He also has La Salle ranked slightly higher (198th vs 204th). Those looking to follow the sharp move but wary of laying points in what could be a close game may prefer a La Salle moneyline play at -150. La Salle went 4-2 down the stretch while George Washington went just 1-13. La Salle went 2-0 against George Washington during the regular season, winning on the road 80-70 and winning again at home 72-66. Sharps have also crushed this under, dropping the total from 148.5 to 146.5

    5:15 p.m. ET: Canisius vs Mount St. Mary’s (-4, 136.5)

    This is the first round of the MAAC conference tournament. Canisius (13-17) is the 9-seed and just beat Manhattan 73-70 in their final game of the regular season. On the other hand, Mount St. Mary’s (13-18) is the 8-seed and just fell to Fairfield 96-92 in their regular season finale. This line opened with Mount St. Mary’s listed as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite. Pros have gotten down hard on the favorite, steaming Mount St. Mary’s up from -2.5 to -4. Mount St. Mary’s is receiving 61% of spread bets but 86% of spread dollars, signaling modest public support but also heavy sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Mount St. Mary’s has the better offensive efficiency (241st vs 284th), better defensive efficiency (214th vs 230th), better effective field goal percentage (53% vs 50%) and far better free-throw shooting (73% vs 62%), which could prove critical in a tight game. Ken Pom has Mount St. Mary’s winning by two points (72-70). He also has Mount St. Mary’s ranked higher (233rd vs 277th). Those looking to protect themselves in what might be a close game could instead target Mount St. Mary’s on the moneyline at -175. These teams split their two head-to-head matchups this season, with Mount St. Mary’s winning 74-69 at home in early January and then Canisius winning 61-56 at home roughly a week ago. Sharps have also steamed the under, with the total falling from 139 to 136.5.

    7 p.m. ET: Miami (-2.5, 148) vs Boston College

    This is the first round of the ACC conference tournament. Miami (15-16) is the 14-seed and just fell to Florida State 83-75 in their regular season finale. Meanwhile, Boston College (17-14) is the 11-seed and just ended the regular season with a 67-61 win over Louisville. This line opened with Miami listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Miami has the worse record, the worse seed and is also mired in a 9-game losing streak, plus they lost both games to Boston College during the regular season (85-77 and 67-57), yet they open as the favorite? If it doesn’t make sense, there is usually a reason for it. Pros have embraced the fishy side, steaming Miami up from -1.5 to -2.5. Miami is only receiving 60% of spread bets but 70% of spread dollars, further evidence of the sharper wagers buying low on the Hurricanes. Miami is the ultimate buy-low play as they have lost nine straight games. Miami also has the better defensive efficiency (113th vs 134th). Pros seem to be specifically targeting Miami on the moneyline (-135), as the Hurricanes are receiving only 53% of moneyline bets but 69% of moneyline dollars. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 150 to 148. Both of these teams play at a slower, more deliberate pace and rank in the bottom half of the country in terms of tempo.

    Josh Appelbaum
    Josh Appelbaum
    Josh Appelbaum is a Sports Betting Analyst at VSiN and has been working in the betting industry since 2011. He has been with VSiN since 2019, contributing data-driven articles to VSiN.com, hosting the Morning Bets and Market Insights Podcasts and appearing on VSiN and DraftKings programs such as Follow the Money, The Lombardi Line, Sharp Money and The Sweat. He is a contrarian bettor and also the author of The Everything Guide to Sports Betting.

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