Today is Super Tuesday with a loaded slate of 43 College Basketball games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games tonight, including two of the most popular games on the board.
7 p.m. ET: Purdue at Illinois (-2, 163.5)
Purdue (26-3, ranked 3rd) has won three straight games and just outlasted Michigan State 80-74. Similarly, Illinois (22-7, ranked 12th) has also won three straight and just took down Wisconsin 91-83. This line opened with Illinois listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they’re rushing to the window to grab the points with Purdue, who has the better record and ranking. However, despite 65% of spread bets taking Purdue we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Illinois (-1.5 to -2). This signals sharp reverse line movement on Illinois, with pros fading the trendy dog Boilermakers and instead backing the unpopular home favorite. Illinois is only receiving 35% of spread bets in the most heavily bet game of the night, giving the Illini great contrarian value. Illinois is also receiving 35% of spread bets but 71% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split signaling that the bigger, sharper wagers are in their favor. When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite is 36-9 straight up (80%) this season. Big Ten home favorites are 70-24 straight up (74%) in conference play this season. Illinois is -135 on the moneyline. This is also a revenge spot for Illinois, who lost to Purdue 83-78 on the road back in early January.
7 p.m. ET: Alabama at Florida (-1.5, 176.5)
Alabama (20-9, ranked 16th) has lost two of their last three games and just fell to Tennessee 81-74. Meanwhile, Florida (20-9) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to South Carolina 82-76. This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with some shops opening Florida as a short 1-point home favorite. The public is relatively split, yet we’ve seen Florida creep up to a 1.5-point home favorite. Some books are even inching toward -2. Reading between the lines, this signals smart money backing the Gators at home based on the all of the movement and liability leaning in their direction. Florida is only receiving 52% of spread bets but 78% of spread dollars, a massive sharp money discrepancy in their favor. Florida has the better offensive rebound percentage (39% vs 36%) and also has the higher ranked defensive efficiency (87th vs 100th). The Gators are 13-1 at home this season. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 26-19 straight up (58%) this season and 69-32 straight up (68%) since the start of last season. SEC home favorites are 56-21 straight up (73%) in conference play this season. Florida is -125 on the moneyline. This is also a revenge spot for Florida, who lost to Alabama 98-93 on the road in overtime roughly three weeks ago.
8 p.m. ET: Central Michigan (-3, 136) at Northern Illinois
Central Michigan (16-13) has lost three straight games and just came up short against Kent State 79-73 in overtime. On the other hand, Northern Illinois (10-19) has dropped four of their last five games and just fell to Akron 80-73. This line opened at a pick’em. Sharps have gotten down hard on Central Michigan, steaming the Chippewas up from a pick’em to a 3-point road favorite. This massive steam move is especially meaningful because this is one of the smallest and least popular games of the night. In other words, the betting public has no interest in this matchup but based on the line move, pros have taken a position and forced the oddsmakers to adjust the number. Central Michigan is receiving 65% of spread bets and 68% of spread dollars, further evidence of one-sided smart money in their favor. Central Michigan has the far better defensive efficiency (146th vs 330th). Those looking to follow the sharp line move but wary of laying the points in what could be a tight game may prefer a Central Michigan moneyline play at -155. Central Michigan is 10-6 in conference play. Northern Illinois is 4-12. Northern Illinois is just 5-8 at home, one of only two teams in the conference with a losing record at home. MAC favorites are 62-34 straight up (65%) in conference play this season. Central Michigan beat Northern Illinois 84-77 at home back in late January.
