College basketball best bets and projections
It took double overtime, but Central Michigan came through for us last night to give us another winning night (2-1), with Ohio taking care of business and UNC barely winning, let alone covering the 8.5. That moves us to 7-1 in men’s hoops for the week and 64-54-1 on the season. I didn’t have any women’s plays yesterday, going back and forth with myself about whether or not to fire on the Michigan State under. I laid off, and of course it would’ve cashed. But, if you’re not 100% comfortable with a bet, it’s best to lay off and manage your bankroll. We’re back with another solid slate today. For my women’s best bets, follow me on X, @TShoeIndex.
Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.
These “Projections and Best Bets” pieces will be occurring Monday-Thursday on VSiN.com, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on.
As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors.
Here are the TSI projections for today, January 31st:
How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.
Men’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Alabama | Georgia | 8.0 | 159.6 |
| American | Lafayette | -1.4 | 135.1 |
| Arkansas | Missouri | -5.7 | 147.2 |
| Arkansas State | Southern Mississippi | 4.7 | 148.9 |
| Army | Colgate | -15.0 | 129.1 |
| Auburn | Vanderbilt | 20.5 | 142.5 |
| Austin Peay | Jacksonville | 7.0 | 142.2 |
| Baylor | Central Florida | 0.9 | 146.2 |
| Belmont | Indiana State | -14.4 | 161.0 |
| Boise State | New Mexico | -13.6 | 150.5 |
| Bradley | Northern Iowa | 8.6 | 143.9 |
| Bucknell | Loyola (MD) | 13.1 | 138.4 |
| Charleston Southern | Radford | -8.2 | 141.6 |
| Chattanooga | Western Carolina | -3.6 | 144.7 |
| Chicago State | Duquesne | -15.8 | 133.9 |
| Cincinnati | West Virginia | 8.0 | 142.9 |
| Connecticut | Providence | 9.9 | 141.5 |
| Drake | Valparaiso | 20.6 | 143.7 |
| East Carolina | South Florida | -1.5 | 140.2 |
| East Tennessee State | Mercer | -2.7 | 137.3 |
| Evansville | Illinois-Chicago | 0.4 | 142.3 |
| Florida | Kentucky | -2.3 | 170.1 |
| Fordham | Richmond | -5.0 | 142.1 |
| Furman | The Citadel | 8.4 | 147.2 |
| Gardner-Webb | UNC Asheville | 2.3 | 149.1 |
| George Mason | Saint Joseph’s | -4.1 | 143.6 |
| Incarnate Word | Texas A&M-Commerce | -5.4 | 144.0 |
| La Salle | Rhode Island | -0.6 | 150.6 |
| Lehigh | Navy | 4.5 | 141.6 |
| Lipscomb | North Florida | 2.0 | 152.1 |
| Louisiana | Louisiana-Monroe | 14.4 | 142.7 |
| Memphis | Rice | 12.6 | 153.2 |
| Missouri State | Southern Illinois | -4.8 | 138.3 |
| North Texas | UAB | 8.8 | 137.2 |
| Northwestern | Purdue | -15.1 | 147.4 |
| Notre Dame | Virginia | -9.0 | 120.8 |
| Penn State | Rutgers | -5.7 | 142.8 |
| Pittsburgh | Wake Forest | 0.4 | 145.3 |
| Presbyterian | South Carolina Upstate | 1.7 | 144.3 |
| Saint Mary’s (CA) | Santa Clara | 13.5 | 139.3 |
| Samford | Wofford | 13.1 | 161.3 |
| St. John’s (NY) | Xavier | -2.0 | 148.2 |
| Tulsa | Wichita State | 3.3 | 147.9 |
| UNC Greensboro | Virginia Military Institute | 15.0 | 150.8 |
Bets:
Xavier/St John’s Under 157
Bucknell -8
Indiana State -8.5
Women’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Air Force | Colorado State | -3.2 | 132.7 |
| Akron | Toledo | -10.9 | 124.1 |
| American | Lafayette | 13.3 | 126.6 |
| Appalachian State | Marshall | -14.9 | 150.5 |
| Arkansas State | South Alabama | 17.5 | 129.6 |
| Army | Colgate | 1.7 | 127.1 |
| Ball State | Kent State | 11.2 | 136.0 |
| Bellarmine | Florida Gulf Coast | -26.6 | 137.8 |
| Boise State | Fresno State | 1.8 | 130.5 |
| Bowling Green State | Northern Illinois | 7.6 | 131.3 |
| Brigham Young | Kansas | -7.3 | 130.2 |
| Bucknell | Loyola (MD) | -7.1 | 121.4 |
| Buffalo | Ohio | 4.3 | 132.9 |
| Butler | DePaul | 3.1 | 136.0 |
| Central Michigan | Miami (OH) | -5.6 | 121.7 |
| Charleston Southern | Radford | -3.6 | 125.4 |
| Charlotte | Tulane | -0.6 | 129.5 |
| Cleveland State | Purdue Fort Wayne | 4.6 | 132.0 |
| Connecticut | Villanova | 18.7 | 137.4 |
| Creighton | Marquette | 6.8 | 135.4 |
| Davidson | St. Bonaventure | 18.7 | 124.1 |
| Dayton | Saint Louis | 1.0 | 139.2 |
| Detroit Mercy | Northern Kentucky | -0.3 | 130.9 |
| Duquesne | Virginia Commonwealth | -3.2 | 127.8 |
| Eastern Kentucky | Stetson | 13.7 | 122.6 |
| Eastern Michigan | Western Michigan | -2.4 | 122.3 |
| Florida Atlantic | UAB | -11.7 | 135.5 |
| Fordham | George Mason | -24.9 | 130.4 |
| Gardner-Webb | UNC Asheville | -7.2 | 132.6 |
| George Washington | Rhode Island | -11.6 | 116.1 |
| Georgetown | Seton Hall | -3.6 | 120.9 |
| Georgia State | James Madison | -1.1 | 137.6 |
| High Point | Longwood | -2.0 | 138.4 |
| Illinois | Michigan | -0.6 | 127.6 |
| Illinois-Chicago | Northern Iowa | 0.4 | 122.9 |
| Indiana | Maryland | 3.7 | 144.8 |
| Iowa | Northwestern | 27.8 | 148.6 |
| Iowa State | Oklahoma State | 4.5 | 135.9 |
| IUPUI | Youngstown State | -3.1 | 129.3 |
| Kansas State | Oklahoma | 0.9 | 131.8 |
| La Salle | Massachusetts | -1.7 | 134.2 |
| Lehigh | Navy | 11.1 | 141.4 |
| Longwood | High Point | 2.0 | 138.4 |
| Loyola (IL) | Saint Joseph’s | -14.8 | 124.7 |
| Milwaukee | Robert Morris | 16.5 | 122.9 |
| Minnesota | Penn State | -1.5 | 142.4 |
| Nebraska | Purdue | 11.7 | 130.9 |
| Nevada | Utah State | 25.9 | 131.4 |
| Nevada-Las Vegas | Wyoming | 16.2 | 135.3 |
| New Mexico | San Jose State | 9.5 | 125.6 |
| North Texas | UTSA | 3.6 | 133.1 |
| Oakland | Wright State | -1.5 | 143.9 |
| Old Dominion | Texas State | 4.0 | 118.6 |
| Presbyterian | South Carolina Upstate | -9.9 | 121.7 |
| Rice | Southern Methodist | 5.8 | 134.9 |
| St. John’s (NY) | Xavier | 26.2 | 122.9 |
| Temple | Wichita State | 16.1 | 132.5 |
