College basketball best bets and projections
It’s going to be hard to follow up last night’s star-studded women’s slate, but the men’s NIT semifinals are Tuesday night, starting with Indiana State vs Utah, with Seton Hall vs Georgia as the night cap. As always, the T Shoe Index has you covered with projections on these matchups to get us through to what is sure to be an electric weekend of men’s and women’s college basketball.
Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.
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As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors.
Here are the TSI projections for Tuesday, April 2:
How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.
| Team A | Team B | Spread | Total |
| Indiana State | Utah | -1.5 | 157 |
| Seton Hall | Georgia | +5 | 143.5 |
Indiana State vs Utah
The Sycamores are 3.5-point favorites in this game, with an O/U of 163.5. TSI would actually make Utah a 1.5-point favorite in this game based on how these teams have played recently. Weighing season-long metrics evenly, I could see why Indiana State is a small favorite, but when factoring in the current trajectory of these teams, the edge goes to Utah. TSI also agrees with the market move towards the Under, projecting just 157 points in this game as the market has dropped two points since opening at 165.5.
Seton Hall vs Georgia
Seton Hall is a 4.5-point favorite against the Bulldogs after opening as a 2.5-point favorite, with an O/U at 145.5, up a full point since opening. TSI is aligned with the market here, making the Pirates a five-point favorite in this matchup, with a projected total of 143.5. Season-long metrics put the projection right in the middle, making Seton Hall a three-point favorite, so this game is probably a stay away for me.
Best Bet:
Utah +3.5
