College basketball schedule today has 31 games
It is a busier Friday card than usual thanks to conference tournaments, plus we have the end of the WAC and MAC regular seasons to tackle. As I mentioned, there are a good number of day games with the early rounds of conference tournaments, but there isn’t much I can do with the time change and the other responsibilities I have to get this out earlier. I’ll focus on the games that have lead time throughout the conference tournament process.
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For the NCAA Tournament, though, we’ll have the lines early, so I should be able to write these the day before and have them posted overnight so they’re ready for the morning. That isn’t the case with back-to-back games and such for conference tourneys.
Be sure to keep listening to the VSiN College Basketball Betting Podcast, as we’ll have a new episode late tonight/early tomorrow morning with the Circa contest picks and thoughts.
Alright, now let’s get to today’s card and remember, some teams are just playing out the string of the regular season to get to the conference tournaments and take their one shot to get into the Big Dance. (Tracking sheet)
Here are some thoughts on the March 3 card (odds from DraftKings):
Dayton Flyers (-1, 136.5) at Saint Louis Billikens
The Flyers are locked into the No. 2 seed in the A-10 Tournament, so it’s fair to question their motivation, but this is a good matchup for them and teams want to head into the tourney on a high note when they are among the favorites. Dayton is on the road here against Saint Louis and the Flyers also have some extra incentive to look good on the road.
A big part of the offensive strategy for the Billikens is to get to the rim. Their shot share on Close Twos is 41.2%, which ranks 42nd. The problem is that Dayton is 25th in shot share against at 29.9%. This is a scenario where Dayton can really limit the Saint Louis offense, which is precisely what happened in the first meeting that the Flyers won by 14 and held the Billikens to just 56 points.
Dayton played the game to the tempo that they’re looking for with just 60 possessions. They also racked up 1.171 PPP on offense. Even a slightly lower performance would be good enough for the Flyers if the Billikens are forced into 27 mid-range jumper attempts once again. Saint Louis doesn’t like to shoot 3s and Dayton defends them well, holding opponents to just 28.7%, which is fifth in the nation.
I just don’t see Saint Louis being able to score and that makes for a terrific matchup for Dayton.
Pick: Dayton -1
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