College basketball best bets today

Sixteen games start a new week in the college basketball world, as Monday brings us a lot of one-bid conference action, but there is a trio of major-conference tilts to consider. Things are back to normal for me, as I’m back at my desk after a weekend to celebrate my great friend and colleague Femi Abebefe.

Before getting into the college basketball best bets for today, a quick note on upcoming VSiN content. We will be previewing all 32 conference tournaments this season, as myself, Zachary Cohen, Jonathan Von Tobel, Mike Somich, and Tyler Shoemaker will all be involved in that process. The first conference tournament starts March 4 (Atlantic Sun) and we’ll get those out as quickly as possible.

 

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We’ll also have a March Madness Primer with some general NCAA Tournament betting tips on either March 10 or 11 and then our March Madness Betting Guide on March 19. Lots of college hoops coming your way!

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest. Check out the Tracking Sheet for this season’s results and our college basketball home page for more CBB content.

Here are two college basketball best bets for today.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Alabama State Hornets at Bethune-Cookman Wildcats (-2.5, 139.5)

7:30 p.m. ET

A little SWACtion here, as Alabama State and Bethune-Cookman face off for the second time this season. The Wildcats won the first game 79-68 on the road and are laying a short home number here.

Alabama State technically has the best adjusted defensive efficiency in SWAC play, but they’ve allowed at least a point per possession in five of their last seven games after playing excellent defense for the first seven games of conference play. Their first league game with over a point per possession allowed was the first meeting with Bethune.

If the defense is truly trending downward for Alabama State, as the numbers imply, they’re in deep trouble. They’re a horrible offensive team, ranking 12th out of 12 teams in eFG% at 40.8% and also 12th in 3P% at 24.3%. They’re 11th in 2P% at 43.4%. Meanwhile, Bethune-Cookman is second in adjusted offensive efficiency and ranks fourth in eFG% and 3P%, while also ranking fifth in 2P%. They’re the best free throw shooting team in the conference.

Even though Alabama State had 19 offensive rebounds to just seven for Bethune in the first meeting and forced 18 turnovers, they still lost by 11. I imagine the details look a little better for the Wildcats in the second meeting, especially with the way Alabama State is trending on defense.

Pick: Bethune-Cookman -2.5

Norfolk State Spartans (-4.5, 146.5) at Morgan State Bears

7:30 p.m. ET

We’ve got a little MEACtion here as well, as Norfolk State and Morgan State also meet for the second time this season. Norfolk State did not cover the first meeting as a 12-point favorite, but this line looks pretty favorable on the Spartans, who won 83-73 in that first game.

Morgan State has really lost it offensively over the last three games, scoring .942, .841, and .939 points per possession against Maryland-Eastern Shore, Delaware State, and Howard, who are all clearly worse than Norfolk State. The Spartans have been a little inconsistent lately themselves, but match up really well with the Bears.

Defensively, these two teams are very different. Norfolk State is actually 80th in 2P% defense and has held the opposition to a 33.5% shot share on Close Twos per Bart Torvik. Morgan State, meanwhile, has allowed a 44% shot share on Close Twos. In that aforementioned head-to-head meeting, Norfolk State had 34 shot attempts at the rim. They only had 15 makes and still scored 83 points.

Morgan State is shooting 29.4% from 3 and Norfolk State is pushing opponents out to the 3-point line with a 47.2% shot share against, so the Bears will have to find a way to out-shoot their season average to keep this game close in my opinion.

Lastly, the Spartans have a TO% on defense of 22% overall and 22.5% in league play. Moran State has turned it over more than 20% of the time. I like Norfolk State in this one.

Pick: Norfolk State -4.5

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