College Basketball Best Bets Today:

A new week in college basketball gets underway with 48 games on Monday. This week is very big for early-season tournaments, as players playing away from family bond together with teammates and coaches to hit the hardwood during the holidays.

Games also start very early in some instances, like the 10:30 a.m. ET start in Daytona Beach between Radford and Chicago State this morning. As I’ve said up to this point, I won’t even start handicapping games for the article until the 4 p.m. ET window, which will wipe out some games this week, but is only fair to the readers.

 

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The next 4+ weeks of college hoops can be tricky. You have the holidays. Then you have a week or two before finals. Then winter break, so home-court advantage melts away. Games are sporadic with finals and then the break. Then you hit Christmas. It’s around January 2 or 3 that college basketball teams can get back into a rhythm. So, it’s important to know the situations, travel, and other factors as you break down the games.

We have a ton of content rolling in here at VSiN on a daily basis, so you may want to bookmark our College Basketball Articles page so you can find this and also Greg Peterson’s top CBB bets of the day.

Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Clemson Tigers (-2.5, 144.5) vs. San Francisco Dons

6:30 p.m. ET

The Beach Division semifinals of the Sunshine Slam in Daytona Beach feature Clemson and San Francisco. The round title is a little misleading, as neither team has played a game yet in this tournament. San Francisco’s last data point was the 68-64 loss to Memphis and Clemson’s was a 28-point win over Radford.

The teams have a common opponent in Boise State, a team that the Tigers lost to by 13 and the Dons beat by 11. San Francisco was at home and it was a standalone road game for Clemson, but it is the only good team that the Tigers have played to this point. It was not a particularly good data point.

Clemson is off to a nice start otherwise, but they were 6-of-25 from 3 against the Broncos and are 41-of-95 from 3 in wins over Charleston Southern, Saint Francis, Eastern Kentucky, and Radford. Clemson was an Elite Eight participant last season, but they’re off to a 39.2% start from 3 and that team only shot 35.1% from 3. Also, Clemson has ranked 265th, 286th, and 337th in TO% the last three seasons and they are 66th at 21.1% this season. Those two areas – TO% and 3P% – are going to regress as they face better opponents.

San Francisco qualifies as a better opponent. USF had 15 offensive rebounds against Memphis, which I felt was an impressive performance given that Penny Hardaway had focused on making his team tougher and better on the glass in the portal. Losing Tyreek Smith didn’t help, but USF was very physical on both ends of the floor and I think that’s a good sign going forward.

Brad Brownell is also not one of my favorite coaches in big games. I think Chris Gerlufsen, who took over when Todd Golden took the Florida job, is rather solid.

Pick: San Francisco +2.5

UTSA Roadrunners at Troy Trojans (-10.5, 151.5)

8 p.m. ET

It is a homecoming for Troy, who hasn’t played a game at Trojan Arena since November 4. They’re 3-2 on the young year, with blowout losses against Arkansas and Oregon in games where they were 6-of-44 from 3. This is a team that fits the mold of what I love to see from a shot selection standpoint and I think they’re poised for a lopsided win here. All three of their wins against non-top-50 teams have been by 10+ points, including a 10-point win in the opener over a Toledo team scoring on everybody since.

Troy has a 55.5% shot share on Close Twos thus far, more than 22% higher than UTSA. The Roadrunners are just bombing away from 3 and they’re only shooting 25.9% on those shots. Troy tries to run teams off the 3-point line and this is not an efficient Roadrunner offense in any facet. They’re shooting just 37.5% on 2s through two games against Bradley and Little Rock.

Troy is also a menace on the offensive glass, which should lead to second-chance points and maybe some extra possessions. They also have a high TO% on defense. The one concern is that they have turned the ball over a good amount themselves and first-year head coach Austin Claunch has put a more aggressive defense in place for UTSA.

Nevertheless, the UTSA roster is a hodgepodge of transfers, while Troy has a lot of faces that have been in the program. They also should get to the rim a whole lot more than their opponents in a game that projects to have a lot of tempo.

Pick: Troy -10.5

Abilene Christian Wildcats (-3, 149.5) vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles

9 p.m. ET

Neutral-site action in Bozeman brings us Abilene Christian and Southern Miss. These two teams are a long way from home and have some elevation to contend with in Big Sky country. The elevation is a noteworthy factor here in this game.

That’s because Southern Miss played Montana State yesterday and lost by 20. Abilene Christian plays Montana State tomorrow (might want to hit the Bobcats on the opener!). So, it’s a back-to-back for Southern Miss and maybe it’ll help that they have some familiarity on this floor, but I think it’s a detriment.

The reason why it’s a big deal is because of the style Abilene Christian plays. Brette Tanner has been at Abilene Christian since 2013. Tanner was under head coach Joe Golding for most of that time and Golding is now at UTEP, where his pressure defense lives on with a new program.

Because of the full-court assault on defense, ACU has to play a ton of different players. They’re going to harass a Southern Miss team that rides four players very hard more often than not. As it is, the Golden Eagles have turned the ball over with more than a 20% clip and have struggled in five of Jay Ladner’s six years to protect possessions.

I think Abilene gets extra possessions, forces some heavy legs to defend more, and takes care of business here.

Pick: Abilene Christian -3

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