College basketball best bets today

Quantity is a little low but the quality is very high for Tuesday, as we have 25 college basketball games on the card. Good games can be seen across several conferences, including the Mountain West, Big East, Big 12, and SEC, but there are some other games that could surprise. At least there are some better options for the college basketball best bets today.

There are probably a lot of people just now looking at college basketball with the NFL finished. It is a tough time to jump in, but there are a lot of data points for the teams and the rankings sites like KenPom, Bart Torvik, and Haslametrics have reliable numbers at this point. Don’t get caught making assumptions. Use the data to support your positions.

 

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Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest. Check out the Tracking Sheet for this season’s results and our college basketball home page for more CBB content.

Here are two college basketball best bets for today.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Marquette Golden Eagles (-4, 153.5) at Butler Bulldogs

6:30 p.m. ET

When Marquette and Butler met back on Jan. 10 in Milwaukee, it was a major outlier for the Golden Eagles. Marquette had just .847 points per possessions and an eFG% of 36.3%, as they were a combined 24-of-73 from the floor, including 5-of-31 from 3. Even though Butler only mustered .943 PPP, the Bulldogs came away with a 69-62 win.

I’m expecting Marquette to get revenge based on how they are playing and how that game played out. The Golden Eagles have won seven in a row, most of them by margin. Butler is playing well and has won five of six themselves, but they’ve had three straight subpar defensive performances.

In the first meeting, Marquette had 34 shot attempts at the rim compared to 17 for Butler. Getting to the rim is a big part of what the Golden Eagles want to do. They had success in that game, but it was a weird game, as Tyler Kolek was 1-for-13 from the floor and had only two points. The bigger issue was that Marquette was 5-of-31 from 3. They’re shooting 35.8% from 3 in Big East play.

Also in that game, Marquette forced 18 turnovers, had a 15-6 edge in offensive rebounds, and, quite simply, deserved a better fate.

I think they get it tonight. Kolek and the Marquette offense has gone nuclear of late with 1.334, 1.048, 1.248, 1.187, 1.216, 1.294, and 1.282 points per possession during the winning streak. I haven’t played many high-profile games, but rematch situations are always interesting to me and Marquette was the better team in the first game. They just couldn’t get shots to fall.

Pick: Marquette -4

Iowa State Cyclones at Cincinnati Bearcats (-1.5, 136)

7 p.m. ET

There has been a ton of “Hilton Magic” this season, as Iowa State is 14-0 at home, but the road has been less kind, as Iowa State is 4-5 in road/neutral settings. If you’re wondering why the line flipped to the Bearcats as a favorite here, that is a big reason why. My interest is actually on the total in this game.

Iowa State has only allowed a 21.5% shot share on Close Twos, so they’ve really done a good job of forcing teams away from the rim. Their own shot share on Close Twos is just 33.5%, and while they’ve done well to cash in on those chances, Cincinnati ranks 52nd in Close Two FG% against. The Bearcats are fourth in eFG% defense in league play and tops in 2P% defense.

The Cyclones are a metrics darling for a variety of reasons, but they are only ninth in eFG% offense in Big 12 play, ranking eighth in 3P% and 10th in 2P%. In Cincinnati’s first season as a Big 12 member, they are 12th in eFG% offense. They are also 14th in 3P% at 29.1%.

Iowa State’s ability to push teams away from the basket has forced them into a lot of 3-point attempts. Opponents have taken a 3-pointer on 45.2% of their shot attempts against the Cyclones and 44.1% in Big 12 play.

Speaking of 3s, Iowa State has played nine games in road/neutral settings this season and has a 28.7% 3P% in those games.

If this becomes a foul fest in a physical game, the Under will be in trouble, but based on the shooting metrics, defensive stats, and below-average tempos for these two teams in Big 12 play, I like the Under 136 here.

Pick: Under 136

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