College basketball best bets today

Two months from today, the second round of the NCAA Tournament will be starting, so it will be the first Saturday of March Madness. The tourney has been pushed back about a week due to the calendar and some other scheduling things, but it is a good time to be making your plans if you want to come to Vegas or get reservations at your local sportsbook. In the meantime, it’s time for some college basketball best bets today.

We’ve got 32 games on the Tuesday card, so it is a little more than double the selection that we had yesterday. We also have a much wider swath of conferences, including Big 12, SEC, Big Ten, A-10, ACC, Big East, MAC, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, and AAC.

 

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Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest. Check out the Tracking Sheet for this season’s results and our college basketball home page for more CBB content.

Here are two best bets for Tuesday.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Western Michigan Broncos (-6, 148)

7 p.m. ET

We start in Kalamazoo today with the directional rivalry game between Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan. WMU suffered a couple of setbacks last week, but also stepped up in class, taking on Akron and Bowling Green. This should be a much better spot and matchup for the Broncos against EMU.

Some of the usual hallmarks of my handicap are here. Per Bart Torvik, Eastern Michigan has a 28.9% shot share on Close Twos, which ranks 343rd in the nation. They’ve actually done really well with mid-range jumpers this season to salvage something out of their offense, but that isn’t a reliable shot choice in my mind. They’re shooting just 31.6% from 3, which is important here because Western Michigan has a 40% 3P Rate against.

So, I don’t see EMU finding much offensive success here. They’re also at a severe disadvantage on the offensive glass, where they rank 309th in ORB% and WMU ranks 46th.

A big part, pardon the pun, of that interior presence for WMU is 7-footer Javonte Brown. He’s playing under 20 minutes per game, but averages 12 points and 5.8 rebounds in his very efficient minutes. He’s taken 65 shots in 149 minutes played, so the Broncos feed him the rock when he’s on the floor.

EMU has allowed a 64.1% FG% on Close Twos. They don’t defend the interior well and don’t defend well in general, as they rank 306th in eFG% defense, including a 56.3% 2P% defense that ranks 347th in the nation.

Western Michigan gets to the rim at a higher rate, takes better shots, makes more of them, and has averaged 1.105 points per possession in six MAC games. I can’t see EMU keeping up.

Pick: Western Michigan -6

San Diego Toreros at Portland Pilots (-3.5, 159)

9 p.m. ET

Last week, I wrote a fade/follow article for college basketball teams that I was keeping a close eye on because they showed signs of being worthy of a bet or worthy of betting against them. San Diego made the list as a team that I wanted to bet on. They narrowly missed the cut for me last Thursday in the game that was scheduled against Portland, but the game was canceled due to travel issues for the Toreros.

So, I have another kick at the can with the certainty that Deuce Turner will play and now I’m on San Diego. The Toreros are winless in West Coast Conference play, but they’ve faced Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga twice, San Francisco, and Pepperdine, where they led throughout the game and ran out of gas late.

To say that Portland is a step down is a massive understatement. The Pilots rank 339th in the nation in eFG% defense, 332nd in 2P% defense, and 301st in 3P% defense per Torvik. Both of these teams are poor defensively at the rim, but there is a big difference between the two offenses. San Diego has a 40.6% shot share on Close Twos, which ranks 83rd. Portland has a 32.5% shot share, which ranks 301st.

The Pilots chuck a ton of 3s with a 44.1% 3P Rate and only connect at 32.7%. San Diego doesn’t take nearly as many 3s with a 33% 3P Rate, but they are shooting 35.2% on them. Portland’s 3P Rate against is 46.6%, so San Diego may be forced to shoot more than normal, but they have shot the ball pretty well from deep.

If you’ve been reading throughout the season, you know I like teams with high “Rim & 3” rates. San Diego should have their highest Rim & 3 rate of the season given that they will be able to have success getting inside and have the opportunity to take a lot of 3s if they wish.

I love that this is a big step down in class after playing the WCC’s best and a good matchup in a lot of ways.

Pick: San Diego +3.5

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