College basketball best bets today

It is Wednesday and that means we’re up to 47 games on the college basketball card, as we see little increases every day over the course of the week from Monday to Thursday and then drop down on Friday in advance of the massive Saturday card. Big and small conferences make up a very diverse card tonight, so there is a good cross-section of games to sort through in hopes of finding college basketball best bets.

Auburn vs. Alabama may be the spotlight game of the night, but my eyes are elsewhere.

 

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Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest. Check out the Tracking Sheet for this season’s results and our college basketball home page for more CBB content.

Here are two best bets for Wednesday.

Lafayette Leopards (-2.5, 129.5) at Loyola Maryland Greyhounds

7 p.m. ET

We begin with a deep cut, as Patriot League play takes us to Baltimore for the matchup between Lafayette and Loyola Maryland. The Leopards have been on my radar in conference play and they are off to a 6-0 start. I had a push with them a week ago against Holy Cross, but I’ll go back to the well on them here on the road once again.

Per Bart Torvik, Lafayette played the 80th-ranked non-conference schedule, so a lot of their stats and numbers for the full season are reflective of that, including their low rate of attempts at the rim and their poor offensive numbers, including a 28% 3P%. In six conference games, they’re still only shooting 31.4% from 3, but that is on the rise. They are up to 52.6% on 2s, a 5% increase from their year-to-date numbers. They are also No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency, eFG% defense, and 2P% defense.

This game should be played to around 66 possessions, so below the national average. If Lafayette continues its stout defensive play, I don’t see the Greyhounds, who have a 21.3% TO%, doing much on the stat sheet.

The other thing I really like here is that Loyola is awful on defense. They are 319th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 303rd in 2P% defense, and 311th in 3P% defense. They played an okay non-conference schedule, but they’ve only won once in Patriot League play and that was over a terrible Army team that went 14-of-30 from 3.

The Greyhounds had 1.178 points per possession last time out against Holy Cross and still lost by 8. I don’t expect them to be anywhere near that tonight against a better opponent.

Pick: Lafayette -2.5

Jacksonville State Gamecocks (-1, 123.5) at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

7:30 p.m. ET

Most of the market has pick ‘em on this game, but DraftKings was still holding -1 at time of publish. If you like offense and an up-tempo tilt, this game is not for you. This one looks to be around 63 or 64 possessions at most, as these teams rank 344th and 342nd, respectively, in adjusted tempo per Torvik.

Both teams have had major issues taking care of the basketball, but Middle Tennessee is worse in TO% on both offense and defense. Their 22% TO% on offense is the 10th-highest in the nation. Jacksonville State’s 20.8% is the 30th-highest, but Jacksonville State is a top-100 team in TO% on defense. So, I do expect the Gamecocks to get some extra possessions in the TO department.

I also expect the Gamecocks to get more possessions as a result of their success on the offensive glass. They are 57th in ORB%, while MTSU is 140th. The Gamecocks are also the better defensive rebounding team.

Neother team can shoot well, but MTSU, once again, is worse. They are shooting 26.2% from 3 and over 40% of their shot attempts are 3s. Jacksonville State gets to the rim more frequently, a byproduct of the offensive rebounds.

This is more of a fade of MTSU than a play on Jacksonville State, but the Gamecocks should get more kicks at the can here via turnovers and ORebs in a low-possession game.

Pick: Jacksonville State -1

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