There was a lot of talk on Wednesday about the motivation of Purdue and Virginia, who were getting chances that night for big-time revenge in games as 13-point favorites against teams that beat them earlier in the season. Although one day earlier than the calendar month that I most often associate college basketball conference revenge games with, it still served as a nice reminder of why I put the following article on college basketball rematch betting strategies together each year.
Some of you might recognize that I use rematch statistics extensively in the latter parts of each NFL season, as I feel it can be a great handicapping factor to consider. The same can be said in college basketball, where most conference schedules pit league opponents against one another twice each season. It can become even three times when you add conference tournament action into the mix. Naturally, some teams fare better than others when facing a team they’ve already played, albeit due to coaching adjustments or various other reasons. With that in mind, this piece is dedicated to uncovering the best and worst rematch teams in the country recently, some other top trends, and a handful of systems you can employ as the calendar turns to February.
As always, there is still a lot to be sorted out regarding the conference races and the bids forthcoming to the annual postseason tournaments. What will sort this picture out most the rest of the way? For the most part, it will be the rematches between conference rivals. In most cases, teams have already faced a good percentage of their league foes. There is plenty of game film to be digested as well. How will teams adjust the second time around? Does it matter if they won or lost the opening game? Are there certain teams that are better in late-season rematches when favored or when playing at home, etc.? Are there any specific scenarios when it’s better to back teams in revenge mode? This article will answer all of those questions and much more.
The months of February and March are always the biggest for betting college basketball, both because of football wrapping up and because bettors are much more familiar with the teams now than they were earlier in the season. Using this rematch info should help give readers a leg up in the handicapping process, as it is an important part of what happens the rest of the way.
Note: all data includes games since the beginning of the 2019-20 season through Monday, January 29.
Best college basketball rematch teams lately
– PRINCETON: 18-7 SU & ATS
– MEMPHIS: 25-12 SU & 25-10 ATS
– MASSACHUSETTS: 13-9 SU & 14-6 ATS
– TEXAS A&M: 16-9 SU & 17-8 ATS
– YALE: 20-5 SU & 17-8 ATS
– OHIO U: 22-12 SU & 23-11 ATS
– GRAMBLING: 22-15 SU & 25-12 ATS
– ST THOMAS-MN: 7-8 SU & 10-5 ATS
– VANDERBILT: 12-16 SU & 18-9 ATS
– GRAND CANYON: 25-9 SU & 22-11 ATS
Worst College Basketball rematch teams lately
– E MICHIGAN: 5-22 SU & 5-22 ATS
– TEXAS A&M-COMM: 4-6 SU & 2-7 ATS
– UTAH: 11-29 SU & 11-28 ATS
– COLUMBIA: 1-20 SU & 6-15 ATS
– AIR FORCE: 8-30 SU & 11-27 ATS
– XAVIER: 17-23 SU & 12-28 ATS
– S INDIANA: 5-5 SU & 3-7 ATS
– RICE: 13-24 SU & 11-25 ATS
– SETON HALL: 20-25 SU & 14-31 ATS
– RHODE ISLAND: 8-15 SU & 7-15 ATS
Best college basketball home rematch teams lately
– LINDENWOOD: 4-1 SU & 4-0 ATS
– GEORGIA TECH: 8-2 SU & 9-1 AT
– SAINT LOUIS: 9-1 SU & 8-1 ATS
– SOUTHERN UTAH: 15-1 SU & 14-2 ATS
– ST BONAVENTURE: 6-1 SU & ATS
– MASSACHUSETTS: 7-2 SU & 6-1 ATS
– NIAGARA: 15-4 SU & 16-3 ATS
– HOUSTON: 17-0 SU & 13-3 ATS
– PRINCETON: 8-2 SU & ATS
– GRAMBLING: 12-3 SU & ATS
Worst college basketball home rematch teams lately
– TEXAS A&M-COMM: 2-3 SU & 0-4 ATS
– SETON HALL: 10-12 SU & 2-20 ATS
– BROWN: 3-7 SU & 1-9 ATS
– SAN FRANCISCO: 3-6 SU & 1-8 ATS
– COLUMBIA: 1-10 SU & 2-9 ATS
– AIR FORCE: 5-11 SU & 3-13 ATS
– THE CITADEL: 5-14 SU & 4-15 ATS
– HARVARD: 5-8 SU & 3-10 ATS
– QUINNIPIAC: 7-10 SU & 4-12 ATS
– COPPIN STATE: 4-8 SU & 3-9 ATS
– E MICHIGAN: 4-8 SU & 3-9 ATS
– NC STATE: 7-5 SU & 3-9 ATS
Best college basketball road rematch teams lately
– N COLORADO: 9-6 SU & 12-3 ATS
– TEMPLE: 5-11 SU & 11-3 ATS
– MEMPHIS: 7-7 SU & 10-3 ATS
– NAVY: 13-8 SU & 16-5 ATS
– PRINCETON: 8-4 SU & 9-3 ATS
– WASHINGTON: 6-9 SU & 11-4 ATS
– CAL DAVIS: 8-7 SU & 11-4 ATS
– GRAND CANYON: 8-3 SU & ATS
– CHICAGO STATE: 1-6 SU & 5-2 ATS
– TEXAS A&M: 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS
– WISCONSIN: 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS
– YALE: 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS
– N KENTUCKY: 15-6 SU & ATS
Worst college basketball road rematch teams lately
– LINDENWOOD: 0-4 SU & ATS
– E MICHIGAN: 1-14 SU & 2-13 ATS
– RICHMOND: 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS
– UTAH: 4-14 SU & 3-15 ATS
– TENN-MARTIN: 3-14 SU & ATS
– SIU EDWARDSVILLE: 2-10 SU & 2-9 ATS
– ALABAMA: 3-7 SU & 2-8 ATS
– TEXAS SOUTHERN: 7-8 SU & 3-11 ATS
– CORNELL: 2-7 SU & ATS
– PENN STATE: 2-11 SU & 3-10 ATS
– RICE: 2-11 SU & 3-10 ATS
– TULSA: 2-11 SU & 3-10 ATS
Best college basketball neutral court rematch teams lately
– PRESBYTERIAN: 1-2 SU & 3-0 ATS
– N ALABAMA: 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS
– MIDDLE TENN STATE: 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS
– TEXAS SOUTHERN: 8-0 SU & 7-0 ATS
– SAN FRANCISCO: 6-4 SU & 9-1 ATS
– PENN STATE: 6-3 SU & 8-1 ATS
– SE MISSOURI ST: 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS
– ARIZONA: 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS
Worst college basketball neutral court rematch teams lately
– BELMONT: 4-3 SU & 0-7 ATS
– GEORGE WASHINGTON: 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS
– NORTHWESTERN: 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS
– MIAMI (OH): 0-4 SU & ATS
– SAN DIEGO: 0-4 SU & ATS
– BAYLOR: 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS
– KENTUCKY: 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS
– PROVIDENCE: 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS
– UNC-ASHEVILLE: 3-2 SU & 0-4 ATS
Best college basketball revenge teams lately
– GONZAGA: 3-0 SU & ATS
– VIRGINIA: 6-1 SU & 5-1 ATS
– MASSACHUSETTS: 7-5 SU & 9-2 ATS
– OHIO U: 10-6 SU & 13-3 ATS
– COLGATE: 4-1 SU & ATS
– E WASHINGTON: 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS
– ST THOMAS-MN: 4-5 SU & 7-2 ATS
– RIDER: 14-9 SU & 17-5 ATS
– PROVIDENCE: 13-4 SU & ATS
– HOUSTON: 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS
– ARKANSAS: 10-3 SU & 9-3 ATS
– KANSAS: 11-2 SU & 9-3 ATS
– LIPSCOMB: 15-5 SU & ATS
Worst college basketball revenge teams lately
– PURDUE: 4-5 SU & 0-9 ATS
– RHODE ISLAND: 3-8 SU & 2-9 ATS
– NC STATE: 5-11 SU & 3-13 ATS
– SF AUSTIN STATE: 3-2 SU & 1-4 ATS
– E MICHIGAN: 3-16 SU & 4-15 ATS
– LA SALLE: 3-12 SU & 3-10 ATS
– MONTANA STATE: 6-7 SU & 3-10 ATS
– ST MARY’S-CA: 7-6 SU & 3-10 ATS
– NOTRE DAME: 4-13 SU & ATS
– HARVARD: 4-8 SU & 3-9 ATS
– JACKSONVILLE ST: 4-11 SU & ATS
– SETON HALL: 4-11 SU & ATS
– XAVIER: 5-10 SU & 4-11 ATS
Best college basketball teams in rematches after winning last game lately
– CHICAGO STATE: 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS
– GEORGIA TECH: 6-3 SU & 8-1 ATS
– FORDHAM: 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS
– EVANSVILLE: 3-3 SU & 5-1 ATS
– ST JOSEPH’S: 4-1 SU & ATS
– GEORGE MASON: 8-3 SU & 8-2 ATS
– SAINT LOUIS: 8-3 SU & 8-2 ATS
– TEXAS A&M: 10-4 SU & 11-3 ATS
– PRINCETON: 14-4 SU & ATS
– GRAMBLING: 16-6 SU & 17-5 ATS
– JACKSONVILLE ST: 14-3 SU & 13-4 ATS
– LA-MONROE: 7-6 SU & 9-3 ATS
– GRAND CANYON: 17-4 SU & 15-5 ATS
Worst college basketball teams in rematches after winning last game lately
– TEXAS A&M-COMM: 2-4 SU & 0-5 ATS
– COLUMBIA: 0-3 SU & ATS
– AIR FORCE: 2-8 SU & 1-9 ATS
– CHARLESTON SO: 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS
– E MICHIGAN: 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS
– IDAHO: 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS
– DELAWARE STATE: 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS
– N CAROLINA A&T: 9-8 SU & 3-13 ATS
– UTAH: 4-11 SU & 3-12 ATS
– S INDIANA: 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS
High-scoring rematch teams
– CAL SAN DIEGO: 18-4 Over the total
– TULANE: 27-9 Over the total
– STETSON: 25-9 Over the total
– DUKE: 24-10 Over the total
– LINDENWOOD: 7-3 Over the total
– S INDIANA: 7-3 Over the total
– ARK-PINE BLUFF: 20-9 Over the total
– OAKLAND: 32-15 Over the total
– N COLORADO: 27-13 Over the total
– SE LOUISIANA: 27-13 Over the total
– IDAHO ST: 26-13 Over the total
Low-scoring rematch teams
– STONEHILL: 8-2 Under the total
– TARLETON STATE: 17-5 Under the total
– S CAROLINA STATE: 21-8 Under the total
– THE CITADEL: 30-12 Under the total
– E MICHIGAN: 19-8 Under the total
– OLD DOMINION: 21-9 Under the total
– MERCER: 30-13 Under the total
– FAIRFIELD: 32-14 Under the total
– RICHMOND: 15-7 Under the total
– C ARKANSAS: 19-9 Under the total
Other noteworthy college basketball head-to-head second-time (and third) around ATS trends
– AIR FORCE: 1-7 SU & 0-8 ATS after an upset win in the last game
– CHARLESTON SO: 2-16 SU & 3-14 ATS as a single-digit dog in rematch games
– E MICHIGAN: 1-18 SU & 3-16 ATS as underdog in rematch games
– FORDHAM: 7-0 SU & ATS after upset win in last game
– GEORGIA STATE: 0-7 SU & ATS as underdog in rematch games
– GRAND CANYON: 20-4 SU & 17-6 ATS as favorite in rematch games
– HOUSTON: 22-0 SU & 17-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite in rematch games
– KANSAS: 32-3 SU & 23-12 ATS as favorite in rematch games
– LONGWOOD: 10-3 SU & 12-1 ATS as single-digit dog in rematch games
– MERRIMACK: 7-0 SU & ATS as a road favorite in rematch games
– MISSOURI STATE: 19-4 SU & 17-5 ATS as single-digit favorite in rematch games
– NEBRASKA-OMAHA: 0-8 SU but 8-0 ATS as double-digit dog in rematch games
– PENN STATE: 4-3 SU & 7-0 ATS in rematch games as neutral court underdog
– RICE: 0-7 SU & ATS as double-digit dog in rematch games
– SETON HALL: 10-6 SU & 2-14 ATS as home favorite in rematch games
– SOUTHERN UTAH: 13-1 SU & 12-2 ATS as home favorite in rematch games
– TULSA: 0-8 SU & ATS as double-digit dog in rematch games
– UNC-GREENSBORO: 1-6 SU & 0-7 ATS after upset win in last game
– UTAH STATE: 30-5 SU & 25-10 ATS as favorite in rematch games
– VERMONT: 36-4 SU & 25-14 ATS as favorite in rematch games
– XAVIER: 12-12 SU & 6-18 ATS as favorite in rematch games
Other noteworthy college basketball head-to-head second-time (and third) around totals trends
– BAYLOR: 10-1 Under the total as a road favorite in rematch games
– CAL SAN DIEGO: 10-1 Over the total at home in rematch games
– ELON: 10-0 Under the total in rematch games after winning the first game
– FLA GULF COAST: 11-1 Over the total as home favorite in rematch games
– IDAHO STATE: 17-3 Over the total in road rematch games
– KENNESAW STATE: 14-2 Over the total at home in rematch games
– MISSOURI: 10-0 Over the total in rematch games after winning the first game
– NORTH DAKOTA: 8-0 Over the total as home favorite in rematch games
– NORTHEASTERN: 11-1 Under the total in rematch games after suffering an upset loss in the first game
– NORTHWESTERN STATE: 11-1 Over the total as a road underdog in rematch games
– S CAROLINA ST: 11-0 Under the total in road rematch games
– TARLETON STATE: 8-0 Under the total at home in rematch games
– TEXAS: 15-2 Under the total in rematch games after losing the first contest
– THE CITADEL: 14-2 Under the total as a home underdog in rematch games
All of the trends above have been team specific betting angles, the remaining five are nationwide systems that you’ll need to fit teams into.
1) CBB TEAMS THAT LOST by 20+ or more points in the opening game between teams and are now double-digit road dogs for the rematch are on a 127-93 ATS (57.7%) run.
I wasn’t surprised to see this definitive of a winning record on a trend of this nature in college basketball, as these types of underdogs are very tough to back for bettors. This is about as contrarian of a system as it gets. From a coaching standpoint, losing games by 20 or more points to an opponent requires more than the usual allotment of adjustments for the second time around.
2) College basketball teams that were favored in the prior game but lost by 20+ points to a team and are now underdogs of 6 points or more are 7-31 SU but 28-10 ATS (73.7%) in their last 38 rematch tries.
This is somewhat rare, but there are teams that fall apart so much that they are an underdog of 6 points or more to a team they lost in upset fashion to a bit earlier in the season. Perhaps the big loss contributed to, or even started, a string of bad play. As you can see, the massive line adjustment for the rematch turns out to be an overreaction by oddsmakers.
3) College basketball teams that were upset as favorites of 11 points or more by an opponent are 88-35 SU but just 50-69-2 ATS (42%) in the same-season revenge attempt.
This would seem to be a case of overpricing by oddsmakers originally and a doubling up of that mistake for the rematch. In these cases, the original underdog team is simply a tough matchup for the more respected squad. Don’t assume revenge happens, even when a vengeful team is considerably better.
4) College basketball teams that lose two straight to an opponent in a given season, including the most recent one in upset fashion, have bounced back with an 86-64 SU and 88-58-4 ATS (60.3%) mark in the third try.
It would seem that the third time is the charm in this case, as this seemingly better team, as indicated by the closing line of the prior game, has turned things around in the third game versus the opponent that season. Most often, this comes up in conference tournament action.
5) College basketball teams that beat an opponent twice already in a given season but are now an underdog in the third meeting have gone just 43-88 SU & 53-76-2 ATS (41.1%).
This is very similar to #4 above only adding a line range qualifier to the mix. Despite the two earlier wins, oddsmakers firmly believe that the double-revenge team is the better one still, as they are favored and usually take care of business.
