College Basketball Picks
Quantity over quality is the story for the Saturday college basketball card. With so many premier universities and colleges focused on the gridiron today, most of those basketball teams are idle. We still have several strong games, but not the ones that grab a major network or anything like that. These are important games for mid-majors, as they look to pick up some momentum-building wins or see where they stand against comparable competition for the first time.
Handicapping early-season college basketball is a big challenge because there are so many new faces and moving parts, but it is also a market that provides a ton of opportunity for those who are prepared. That’s one reason why our 2026-27 College Basketball Betting Guide is so valuable. Also a reason why Steve Makinen’s College Basketball Daily Matchup Ratings will be useful. Check out more College Basketball Best Bets from our hosts and guests here.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from Circa Sportsbook or DraftKings Sportsbook (mostly Extra Games) at time of publish.
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at UT Arlington Mavericks (-5.5, 139)
7 p.m. ET
Picks: UT Arlington -5.5
Life without Kahil Fennell has begun for UTRGV, as the Vaqueros have beaten Texas A&M Kingsville and Prairie View A&M to begin the season. They also lost to Texas State, giving up 1.207 points per possession against the first decent team that they faced. I can’t help but feel like this is going to be another reality check for Brandon Chambers’ squad.
I’m not sure people realize how good UTRGV was last season under Fennell. They were 42nd in eFG% offense and 36th in eFG% defense nationally per Torvik. They shot nearly 37% from 3 and were better than 76% at the free throw line. As you would expect with a coaching change in present day, a lot of the production from last season is gone.
Lightly-used TCU transfer Jace Posey and Oregon get Devon Pryor will need to be the big players for this team. Those are the players with the most pedigree, even if they don’t have the most experience. Lamar transfer B.B. Knight played a lot as a sophomore, but has battled injuries the last two seasons. The common thread through all of these guys, though, is that they haven’t proven to be good shooters.
Posey was 2-of-13 from 3 last season and is 24% for his career, while shooting 49.2% on 2s. He’s not a facilitator and is being asked to shoulder a high Usage Rate for the Vaqueros. Knight is a 32.2% shooter from 3 and just a 40.2% shooter on 2s. Pryor only has 78 2-point attempts and has shot 57.7% on them, but he’s also just 9-of-44 from 3. Holdover Always Wright is a 41.8% 2-point shooter and a 32.7% 3-point shooter.
Per Torvik’s numbers, UT Arlington is 21st in Effective Height, so they have some big guys protecting the rim. While the Mavs have had offensive issues of their own, they’ve mostly defended well through four games so far. Portland was 11-of-23 from 3, but the Mavs outscored them 89-85 to pick up that neutral-site win.
Chambers was the defensive coordinator for Will Wade at NC State and has worked alongside him for a long time. I would expect this team to improve faster on the defensive end than the offensive end. Given that getting inside against 7-foot-1 Teodor Simic and 6-foot-10 Niko Bundalo seems challenging, I don’t think that the Vaqueros will find much offensive success.
IU Indy Jaguars (-2.5, 158.5) at Morehead State Eagles
7:30 p.m. ET
Pick: IU Indy -2.5
One of the most important transfers in the Horizon League is Gus Etchison. The Idaho State point guard had 67 assists against 38 turnovers for the Bengals last season. Ben Howlett needed to find a PG who could run this fast-paced offense and he found it in Etchison. So far, it has worked, as he’s scored 16 PPG and has averaged three assists per contest.
The other really important transfer for IU Indy is Precious Idiaru and his success will be matchup-dependent. So far, he’s stepped out and attempted 12 3s with only two made shots. He’s 12-for-56 in his career. But, when he’s inside the arc, he’s 13-of-23. Morehead State has one of the smaller teams in Division I, so Idiaru should be able to post up a little bit more here and take some higher-percentage shots rather than stepping out to bomb low-percentage 3s. Four-time transfer Billy Smith is a career 36% 3-point shooter who should be a great fit in this offense as the season goes along. The Jaguars could be a tough team to match up with if all the pieces come together.
After making the NCAA Tournament twice under Preston Spradlin, the Eagles haven’t been back since, though Jonathan Mattox led a 20-13 team last season that was 15-5 in conference play. That said, things could have gone very differently. This was not a statistically-impressive team, but Mattox led a group that went 13-3 in games decided by six or fewer points. Only five teams had a higher winning percentage in those types of games.
This game will be played at an uncomfortable pace for Morehead State, who has played very slowly during the Mattox years and played slowly most of the time under Spradlin. While the Eagles have a lot of carryovers from last season, nearly all of the returnees were inefficient scorers. Against an IU Indy team that will run the floor and has guys who can create shots for themselves, Morehead State’s likely to bog down in the halfcourt.
