College Basketball Picks
We have a good amount of action on Tuesday with 56 games across the college basketball card, plus there are a couple handfuls of teams that will play against lower-division competition. Everybody is still settling into the season, which is about a week and a half old now, and we’re starting to get some data points of interest. We’re also going to see a lot of teams get road weary, as those smaller programs are running around the country playing paycheck games against far better competition. That takes a toll and is something you want to watch for on a daily basis.
Handicapping early-season college basketball is a big challenge because there are so many new faces and moving parts, but it is also a market that provides a ton of opportunity for those who are prepared. That’s one reason why our 2026-27 College Basketball Betting Guide is so valuable. Also a reason why Steve Makinen’s College Basketball Daily Matchup Ratings will be useful.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from Circa Sportsbook or DraftKings Sportsbook (mostly Extra Games) at time of publish.
Washington State at Duquesne (-3.5, 144.5)
7 p.m. ET
Pick: Duquesne -3.5
We’ve seen some money hit the board on Washington State here, as the Cougs are stepping down in class a tad to take on Duquesne. With losses to Davidson and High Point, two programs that historically shoot the hell out of the basketball, a matchup with the Dukes could be a welcomed change of pace for Wazzu.
But, I don’t see it that way. While Washington State has only allowed a 35.4% shot share on Close Twos, opponents are 26-for-35 on those shot attempts. Davidson and High Point are two teams happy to take jumpers. Duquesne has a high Rim & 3 Rate, so they’re going to attempt to be physical and push the ball inside. So far, Washington State ranks 353rd in half-court eFG% defense per Torvik and the Dukes had a solid offense last season that ranked 77th in 2P% and 133rd in eFG%.
To fix the poor 3-point shooting numbers, head coach Dru Joyce III, a teammate of LeBron James at St. Vincent-St. Mary High School and a Keith Dambrot disciple, went shopping in the portal for guys to shoot the ball from deep. Yoav Berman only shot 29.6% last season, but shot 40.4% from 3 as a freshman at Queens two seasons ago. Josh Smith shot 34.3% from 3 at West Georgia.
Guinyard is still awaiting clearance to play, which is why we’ve seen money hit the Wazzu side, as he’s the leader of the offense and facilitator. Even without Guinyard, the Dukes were 22-of-32 on Close Twos against Purdue Fort Wayne in the opener and had more assists with fewer turnovers. The Dukes also had seven dunks to Fort Wayne’s zero.
Washington State has been out-dunked 7-1 in two games and opponents have racked up 1.144 and 1.313 points per possession. The Cougars don’t have a ton of height on the interior, so teams have really looked to take advantage of that. Among his portal haul, Joyce brought in 6-foot-11 Ege Demir from Oregon and 6-foot-9 Kerem Konan from Creighton.
While Wazzu has been in the Eastern Time Zone for a few days, they are still a long way from home, playing in an unfamiliar venue. They’re also shooting just 50% on Close Twos and 43.7% on 2s overall. Not great facing a more physical opponent than the last two.
Army (-1, 133) at New Haven
7 p.m. ET
Pick: Under 133
A game that everybody will be locked in on tonight brings together Army and New Haven. The Chargers are in Year 2 as a Division I program after going 14-17 last season and 9-9 in the NEC. This was one of the worst offensive teams in the nation and they played at a glacial pace. The Chargers were 340th in the nation in 3P%, 298th in eFG%, 359th in ORB%, and 349th in adjusted tempo.
We’ll see if head coach Ted Hotaling will be able to improve in any of those areas. His roster is comprised of rotation players from last season and some JUCO transfers, as this is obviously not a cash-rich program in today’s NIL landscape. The two best players from last season, Jabri Fitzpatrick (Eastern Michigan) and Andre Pasha (Bryant) transferred out. The team’s second-most frequent shooter, Nijimi George, transferred to Samford, where he can fire away at will.
So, the Chargers need to find some new scoring options. Last year’s team wasn’t efficient anyway, but the top four guys in Close Two shot attempts were Fitzpatrick, George, Pasha, and Stefano Faloppa, who are all gone. I’m not sure New Haven has guys that can get to the rack.
Meanwhile, Army isn’t very interested about getting the ball inside. Last season’s team had a 3P Rate of 53.3%, which was the third-highest in the nation. Kevin Kuwik had very few creators and slashers, so the team settled for a ton of long jumpers. They shot just 32% on those. Ryan Curry and Jaxson Bell, who were the two highest-rated players by Torvik from last season’s roster, are both gone.
So, Kuwik has Jacen Holloway (31.4%), Kevin McCarthy (32.9%), and Tate Laczkowski (29% as his top triggermen from last season. Even the bigs step out and shoot 3s at a low success rate on this team. I am curious to see the pace at which the Black Knights play this season, as they were among the nation’s slowest teams in Kuwik’s first season back in 2023-24 and have been around the national average the last two seasons.
Either way, these are two really offensively-challenged teams and Army doesn’t get to the line much with all the 3s. New Haven isn’t a good offensive rebounding team. We’ll probably see a lot of tough shots taken tonight.
Hofstra at Arizona State (-19, 133.5)
9 p.m. ET
Pick: Hofstra +19
So far, so good for Randy Bennett and the Sun Devils with wins by 10 over East Tennessee State and 27 over Northern Colorado. The longtime Gaels head coach has gotten strong efficiency numbers from his offense, racking up 1.219 and 1.337 points per possession. However, Hofstra presents a few challenges that the other teams couldn’t.
First, the Pride will play slowly and be just fine with it. Despite his name, head coach Speedy Claxton has very little pace on his mind. The Pride were 318th in adjusted tempo last season and 345th the season prior to that. They defend ferociously, ranking 27th in eFG% in 2022-23, 87th in ‘23-24, 10th in ‘24-25 and 15th this past season.
Second, Hofstra has three 7-footers on the roster. Joshua DeCady is also a big man at 6-foot-8 graded well defensively last season. The Gaels always had efficient offenses based around a big and guards that could shoot. Arizona State is trying to achieve that same setup, but Hofstra is a tricky opponent in that regard.
Third, Hofstra usually shoots well from deep. It will be tough to get inside on the Sun Devils, but Claxton hit the portal to replace some of last season’s lost shooters and they should get going fairly quickly. They only shot 23.5% from 3 against Princeton last time out and lost by only a deuce. Multi-time transfer Deywilk Tavarez is a career 35.6% 3-point shooter and Tanner Thomas bombed away at 38.1% for Sacred Heart two seasons ago. He missed all of last season.
In what should be a slow-paced game, the Pride should be able to hang around based on their height and their 3-point ability.
