College Basketball Projections and Best Bets for 12/12 from the T Shoe Index


T Shoe Index CBB projections for December 12

A New Hampshire 13-point win cost us by the hook and Columbia/Fairleigh Dickinson turning into the NBA All Star Game killed our under bet yesterday for a poor 0-2 showing. Nevertheless, we’re back for more today with another slate and another opportunity to cash some bets. 


On the women’s side yesterday, I only gave out one play on X (Oregon -22.5), which cashed as the Lady Ducks cruised to a 30-point win. Surprisingly, today’s slate shows more value on totals than on sides, which has not necessarily been the case so far this season. We’re also reaching the point in the season where there’s enough data for me to run some additional formulas in addition to TSI for further data-driven ammunition to make (or stay away from) a bet. 

If you’ve followed me since football season, you’re familiar with my process on this. I essentially try to talk myself out of a bet, or play devil’s advocate, by running additional formulas than my official TSI formula to attempt to “disprove” TSI’s projection on a side or total. When the formulas support TSI, it’s further confirmation to lock in the bet, if they disagree, it tells me it’s best to stay away. No model is perfect, and it’s nearly impossible to consider every factor in a formula-based approach, but a more comprehensive look at the data definitely can’t hurt, right?

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These “Projections and Best Bets” pieces will be occurring 2-3x per week on once we get through bowl season, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on. 

As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors. 

Here are the TSI projections for today, December 12th:

How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin. i.e. today, Samford is projected to beat Alabama A&M by 23.8 points, with a projected total of 154.