March Madness Betting Tips
Betting on college basketball is betting on college basketball. If you’re good at it for 90% of the year, you’ll probably be just fine during the NCAA Tournament. And that’s also true of the opposite. But there are some things you can do to give yourself a better chance of winning during March Madness. There are some big differences between betting on these games, and we want to make sure you’re as prepared as possible. Keep reading for five tips that can help you find success in the Big Dance:
Don’t Blindly Assume Mid-Major Programs Can’t Hang
While there are inherent advantages that come with playing in the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC, there is more parity in college basketball than ever. It was just last year that San Diego State showed that the best of the Mountain West can hang with anyone. The Aztecs were the tournament runners-up, earning wins over Alabama and Creighton along the way. And the signs were there all year long. Very helpful advanced stats resources like KenPom and Bart Torvik were high on the Aztecs. San Diego State was the 14th-ranked team by KenPom in 2023, and Bart Torvik had the group at 11.
It’s important to try to separate the team from the conference. Of course, it’s harder to navigate an entire season against high-major competition than it is a mid-major schedule. But advanced stats account for whom the teams are playing. So, things like adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency numbers are doing the work for you. And you can generally trust that those numbers won’t lie. If you don’t believe us, just look at what Florida Atlantic did last season. The Owls popped when it came to analytics all year, but people doubted them heading into March Madness. Well, Florida Atlantic went all the way to the Final Four and looked every bit as good as some of the top teams in the country.
Ignoring conference bias will be just as crucial in 2024 as it is any other year. There are several impressive tournament teams coming from mid-majors. Don’t be close-minded about betting them against some of the household names. Rely on numbers instead.
Do Your Research On Both Teams
KenPom and Bart Torvik do a lot of the work for you. Both sites will give you an understanding of whether or not teams are good offensively or defensively, and they’ll also tell you whether or not a team plays with pace. Bart Torvik will also tell you a lot about a team’s shot profile. You can see how they do with 2PT and 3PT attempts. You can also see how they guard both of those. You can also get a good idea of how effective teams are on the glass. That type of information is crucial for bettors at this time of year.
Our VSiN Power Ratings also provide you with rankings that heavily factor in a bunch of different statistics. However, there’s more that you can do to prepare for each matchup.
Try to find some betting trends that tell you how teams perform as favorites and underdogs. Also, try to see whether teams regularly go Over/Under totals. And try to dig up some numbers on how teams performed in early-season tournaments. That gives you an idea of which teams will be ready to play on neutral courts.
Another thing to look at is experience. It’s never a bad idea to ride a team with a coach that has been successful in the tournament before. Similarly, you can have a lot of success by backing teams with a good amount of upperclassmen in their rotations. March Madness can be overwhelming. You want players and coaches that have been there before.
Consider The Importance Of Each Tip-Off Time
Something as small as the time of a game can be very important during March Madness. It’s not completely uncommon that you’ll see a team from the West Coast playing an early game on the East Coast. That can be a major disadvantage in some cases. Some games tip at roughly 12:00 p.m. ET, making it a morning game when it comes to the internal clock of a team out West. It can also be a disadvantage if an East Coast team is playing very late.
It’s also worth keeping an eye on when teams played their previous tournament games. If a team plays its first game on Thursday evening and has to play its second early on Saturday, that’s not exactly an ideal amount of rest. It can be extremely profitable betting on situational spots in all sports, so all of this stuff adds up.
Know Where Each Game Is Happening
The location of a game is also something you’ll need to know when betting on this tournament. Some regions will give teams significant home-court advantages. Two years ago, we saw Arizona get boat raced by Houston in a 1 vs. 5 matchup. That game was played at the arena now known as the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio. That meant Cougars fans were a three-hour drive away, ultimately leading to a big advantage for Houston. That type of thing happens pretty regularly in March. So, keep an eye on where games are being played and know how far each fanbase will have to travel. However, in some cases, fans will show up no matter what. Some fanbases travel better than others.
You’ll also want to know what type of arena a game is being played in. While it might sound crazy, depth perception is very important in basketball. If you get a team playing in a massive building for the first time, it’s entirely possible that will impact jump shooting. That could lead to some Unders, at least in the first half. Players will have time to shoot around, but getting comfortable in a game is completely different. This might be something to remember when we get to the Final Four, which will be played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The home of the Arizona Cardinals seats 63,400 people. You probably don’t need Larry David to tell you that’s pretty, pretty, pretty big.
Try Not To Get Too Carried Away
Bankroll management is something you always have to consider, even in March. You will have tons of opportunities to bet on games, but you don’t need to bet on every single one. Try and pick your spots. And if you do want to heavily increase your volume, at least consider lowering your units. March Madness rivals the Super Bowl as one of the best events of the year for bettors. But you don’t want to lose more than you’re comfortable losing over these next few weeks.
