Makinen: College Basketball mid-major conference tourney betting trends

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The madness of March encompasses the entire month of great basketball action and not just the NCAA tournament, and the opening of the conference tourneys, even the mid-majors, should get most bettors excited. I know many in the industry prefer the volume of games, as well as the familiarity of opponents that the conference tournament weeks bring. In fact, some professional bettors spend much more time, resources, and bankroll on the conference tourneys than they do on the NCAA’s, NIT, CIT, and CBI combined. For those of you that might behave similarly, I offer up the following betting data for every conference tournament about to occur, featuring team performance records, trends, and systems.

 

This will be a three-part series, with the mid-major conferences starting tournament games on dates of this week (2/27-3/5) included in this article and those playing next week in the next piece. The third and final part will include all of the key info for the power conferences, starting on March 7th.

The angles that I have chosen focused on three key areas, with combinations of each in some cases. Those areas were bye games, rounds, and line ranges.

As a general thought, bettors should understand the value of having a bye in conference tournaments is typically significant, especially when they are believed to be the better team. In fact, conference tournament favorites off a bye are 552-174 SU and 345-299-17 ATS (53.6%) over the last nine seasons against teams that played earlier in that tournament. That is a winning wager without anything else considered. Remember that when you try to project chances for upsets earlier in these tournaments, especially if you are led to believe the underdog may have picked up momentum from beating a lesser team in a “play-in” type of game.

Note: All of these betting systems included games heading into the respective 2023 tournaments.

The leagues covered in this first piece include:

AMERICA EAST

ATLANTIC SUN

BIG SKY

BIG SOUTH

COLONIAL ATHLETIC

HORIZON LEAGUE

MISSOURI VALLEY

NORTHEAST

OHIO VALLEY

PATRIOT LEAGUE

SOUTHERN

SOUTHLAND

SUMMIT

SUN BELT

WEST COAST

For my latest strength ratings, including Power Ratings, Effective Strength indicators, Bettors’ Ratings, Recent Ratings, and Schedule Strengths, visit the NCAAMBB TEAM POWER RANKINGS page on VSiN.com, sortable by conference.

AMERICA EAST

Teams in SM Power Rating Order

Conference Tournament Performance (since ’14)

MAINE: 0-7 SU and 5-2 ATS (71%), no semifinal appearances

MD-BALT COUNTY: 8-8 SU and 10-6 ATS (63%), 1 title, 3 championship berths, 5 semifinals

BINGHAMTON: 2-7 SU and 4-4 ATS (50%), 2 semifinal appearances

ALBANY: 9-7 SU and 8-8 ATS (50%), 2 titles, 3 championship berths, 3 semifinals

VERMONT: 17-5 SU and 9-12 ATS (43%), 3 titles, 5 championship berths, 9 semifinals

UMASS-LOWELL: 3-5 SU and 3-4 ATS (43%), 1 championship berth, 1 semifinal

NEW HAMPSHIRE: 3-8 SU and 4-7 ATS (36%), 3 semifinals

BRYANT: 5-6 SU and 4-7 ATS (36%), 1 title, 2 championship berths, 3 semifinals

NEW JERSEY TECH: 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS (25%), 1 semifinal appearance

Key Trends

  • Double-digit road underdogs in the quarterfinal round of the America East tourney are on an 8-3-1 ATS (72.7%) surge
  • Small favorites of -4.5 points or more are 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS (75%) in the America East tournament since ’15.
  • Six of the last eight America East championship games went UNDER the total

ATLANTIC SUN

Teams in SM Power Rating Order

Team, Power Rating (Rank), Effective Strength (Rank), Recent (Rank)

Conference Tournament Performance (since ’14)

BELLARMINE: 3-1 SU and ATS (75%), 1 title, 1 championship berth, 1 semifinal

N ALABAMA: 2-4 SU and 4-2 ATS (67%), 1 championship berth, 1 semifinal

STETSON: 4-8 SU and 7-4 ATS (64%), 1 championship berth, 3 semifinals

AUSTIN PEAY: 7-5 SU and 7-4 ATS (64%), 1 title, 1 championship berth, 4 semifinals

E KENTUCKY: 5-4 SU and 5-3 ATS (63%), 1 title, 1 championship berth, 4 semifinals

JACKSONVILLE ST: 7-5 SU and ATS (58%), 1 title, 1 championship berth, 5 semifinals

LIPSCOMB: 11-8 SU and ATS (58%), 1 title, 3 championship berths, 6 semifinals

FLA GULF COAST: 13-7 SU and 11-9 ATS (55%), 2 titles, 4 championship berths, 6 semifinals

N FLORIDA: 9-8 SU and 8-8 ATS (50%), 1 title, 2 championship berths, 6 semifinals

KENNESAW ST: 2-7 SU and 4-5 ATS (44%), 1 semifinal appearance

C ARKANSAS: 3-4 SU and 2-3 ATS (40%), no semifinal appearances

JACKSONVILLE: 3-8 SU and 3-5 ATS (38%), 1 championship berth, 2 semifinals

LIBERTY: 12-6 SU and 5-12 ATS (29%), 3 titles, 4 championship berths, 5 semifinals

Key Trends

  • Single-digit underdogs in the Atlantic Sun tournament are 18-16 SU and 22-10-1 ATS (68.8%) since 2014, while double-digit favorites are on a 31-2 SU and 17-14-2 ATS (54.8%) surge in that same span.
  • Home teams in the Atlantic Sun semifinal games are 9-7 SU but just 5-11 ATS (31.3%) in their last 16 tries.

BIG SKY

Teams in SM Power Rating Order

Team, Power Rating (Rank), Effective Strength (Rank), Recent (Rank)

Conference Tournament Performance (since ’14)

E WASHINGTON: 13-5 SU and 12-6 ATS (67%), 2 titles, 4 championship berths, 5 semifinals

SACRAMENTO ST: 6-8 SU and 8-5 ATS (62%), 1 semifinal appearance

IDAHO: 4-9 SU and 7-5 ATS (58%), 1 championship berth, 3 semifinals

N ARIZONA: 2-9 SU and 6-5 ATS (55%), 1 semifinal appearance

N COLORADO: 6-7 SU and ATS (46%), 1 championship berth, 3 semifinals

MONTANA ST: 6-5 SU and 5-6 ATS (45%), 1 title, 2 championship berths, 2 semifinals

WEBER ST: 9-7 SU and 7-9 ATS (44%), 2 titles, 3 championship berths, 5 semifinals

PORTLAND ST: 6-8 SU and ATS (43%), 2 semifinal appearances

MONTANA: 12-6 SU and 6-12 ATS (33%), 2 titles, 4 championship berths, 5 semifinals

IDAHO ST: 1-6 SU and ATS (14%), no semifinal appearances

Key Trend

  • Single-digit favorites in the Big Sky tourney are on an amazing 41-10 SU and 35-15-1 ATS (70%) run since 2015, including a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS in the title contest.

BIG SOUTH

Teams in SM Power Rating Order

Team, Power Rating (Rank), Effective Strength (Rank), Recent (Rank)

Conference Tournament Performance (since ’14)

LONGWOOD: 8-8 SU and 11-5 ATS (69%), 1 title, 1 championship berth, 3 semifinals

GARDNER WEBB: 11-8 SU and 13-6 ATS (68%), 1 title, 1 championship berth, 6 semifinals

WINTHROP: 19-6 SU and 14-10 ATS (58%), 3 titles, 7 championship berths, 8 semifinals

CHARLESTON SO: 7-8 SU and 7-7 ATS (50%), 1 semifinal appearance

PRESBYTERIAN: 2-9 SU and 5-6 ATS (45%), no semifinal appearances

RADFORD: 9-8 SU and 7-9 ATS (44%), 1 title, 2 championship berths, 5 semifinals

CAMPBELL: 7-9 SU and ATS (44%), 2 championship berths, 3 semifinals

USC UPSTATE: 5-9 SU and 6-8 ATS (43%), 1 championship berth, 3 semifinals

UNC-ASHEVILLE: 7-8 SU and 6-8 ATS (43%), 1 title, 1 championship berth, 3 semifinals

HIGH POINT: 3-9 SU and 2-10 ATS (17%), 1 semifinal appearance

Key Trends

  • Single-digit favorites have been very successful in the Big South tourney since 2014, going 53-14 SU and 44-21-2 ATS (67.7%), highlighted by a 16-1 SU and 13-4 ATS (76.5%) surge in the opening round.

COLONIAL ATHLETIC

Teams in SM Power Rating Order

Team, Power Rating (Rank), Effective Strength (Rank), Recent (Rank)

Conference Tournament Performance (since ’14)

DELAWARE: 10-7 SU and 13-4 ATS (76%), 2 titles, 2 championship berths, 4 semifinals

WILLIAM & MARY: 8-9 SU and 10-7 ATS (59%), 2 championship berth, 5 semifinals

NORTHEASTERN: 14-7 SU and 11-9 ATS (55%), 2 titles, 4 championship berths, 7 semifinals

MONMOUTH: 9-8 SU and ATS (53%), 3 championship berths, 5 semifinals

DREXEL: 6-8 SU and 7-7 ATS (50%), 1 title, 1 championship berth, 1 semifinal

UNC-WILMINGTON: 11-7 SU and 9-9 ATS (50%), 2 titles, 3 championship berths, 5 semifinals

HAMPTON: 13-7 SU and 10-10 ATS (50%), 2 titles, 4 championship berths, 4 semifinals

COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON: 9-8 SU and 7-9 ATS (44%), 1 title, 2 championship berths, 4 semifinals

HOFSTRA: 10-8 SU and 8-10 ATS (44%), 1 title, 3 championship berths, 5 semifinals

ELON: 6-9 SU and 6-8 ATS (43%), 1 championship berth, 2 semifinals

STONY BROOK: 10-7 SU and 4-11 ATS (27%), 1 title, 3 championship berths, 6 semifinals

N CAROLINA A&T: 5-7 SU and 3-9 ATS (25%), 2 semifinal appearances

TOWSON ST: 3-9 SU and 2-9 ATS (18%), 3 semifinal appearances

Key Trend

  • This is a strange one, and a tight line scenario, but in the last eight years of the CAA tourney, there have been 19 favorites of -2.5 to -3.5, and those teams boast a perfect 19-0 SU and 18-0-1 ATS (100%) record in those games!

HORIZON LEAGUE

Teams in SM Power Rating Order

Team, Power Rating (Rank), Effective Strength (Rank), Recent (Rank)

Conference Tournament Performance (since ’14)

WI-MILWAUKEE: 11-6 SU and ATS (65%), 1 title, 2 championship berths, 4 semifinals

WRIGHT ST: 13-7 SU and ATS (65%), 2 titles, 5 championship berths, 6 semifinals

ROBERT MORRIS: 12-7 SU and ATS (63%), 2 titles, 3 championship berths, 6 semifinals

N KENTUCKY: 11-5 SU and 9-7 ATS (56%), 3 titles, 4 championship berths, 5 semifinals

YOUNGSTOWN ST: 4-9 SU and 6-6 ATS (50%), 1 semifinal appearance

PURDUE FT WAYNE: 7-9 SU and 8-8 ATS (50%), 1 championship berth, 5 semifinals

WI-GREEN BAY: 8-8 SU and ATS (50%), 1 title, 2 championship berths, 5 semifinals

CLEVELAND ST: 8-7 SU and 7-8 ATS (47%), 1 title, 2 championship berths, 5 semifinals

IUPUI: 1-9 SU and 4-6 ATS (40%), 1 semifinal appearance

OAKLAND: 7-9 SU and 4-11 ATS (27%), 1 championship berth, 4 semifinals

DETROIT: 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS (25%), no semifinal appearances

Key Trends

  • Teams playing as underdogs of 6 points or more and having played already in the Horizon League tournament are on an amazing 9-6 SU and 11-4 ATS (73.3%) run against teams that enjoyed a bye!
  • Nine of the last 10 Horizon League Tournament semifinal games have gone UNDER the total (90%).
  • Home favorites of 5 points or less are on an incredible 16-0 SU and 15-0-1 ATS streak in the Horizon League tourney since ’14!

MISSOURI VALLEY

Teams in SM Power Rating Order

Team, Power Rating (Rank), Effective Strength (Rank), Recent (Rank)

Conference Tournament Performance (since ’14)

S ILLINOIS: 5-9 SU and 9-5 ATS (64%), 3 semifinal appearances

DRAKE: 6-9 SU and 8-6 ATS (57%), 2 championship berth, 4 semifinals

IL-CHICAGO: 7-9 SU and 9-7 ATS (56%), 1 championship berth, 3 semifinals

N IOWA: 11-6 SU and 9-8 ATS (53%), 2 titles, 3 championship berths, 4 semifinals

BRADLEY: 9-7 SU and 8-8 ATS (50%), 2 titles, 2 championship berths, 3 semifinals

MISSOURI ST: 7-9 SU and 7-8 ATS (47%), 5 semifinal appearances

EVANSVILLE: 4-9 SU and 6-7 ATS (46%), 1 championship berth, 1 semifinal

VALPARAISO: 8-8 SU and 7-9 ATS (44%), 1 title, 2 championship berths, 3 semifinals

ILLINOIS ST: 8-9 SU and 7-10 ATS (41%), 3 championship berths, 3 semifinals

MURRAY ST: 11-6 SU and 7-10 ATS (41%), 3 titles, 5 championship berths, 7 semifinals

BELMONT: 10-7 SU and 6-11 ATS (35%), 2 titles, 6 championship berths, 9 semifinals

INDIANA ST: 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS (23%), 1 championship berth, 3 semifinals

Key Trends

  • Only two of the 33 underdogs of 6.5 points or more in the MVC tourney have won outright, and have gone 12-21 ATS (36.4%) in those games.
  • The MVC tourney is typically a low-scoring bracket, and over the last nine seasons, on totals of 131.5 or higher, UNDER is on a 30-12 (71.4%) run.
  • Favorites in the MVC tournament championship game have won the last 11 games outright and are 10-0 ATS since ’13!

NORTHEAST

Teams in SM Power Rating Order

Team, Power Rating (Rank), Effective Strength (Rank), Recent (Rank)

Conference Tournament Performance (since ’14)

FARLEIGH DICKINSON: 7-5 SU and 9-3 ATS (75%), 2 titles, 2 championship berths, 3 semifinals

ST FRANCIS-PA: 8-8 SU and 9-7 ATS (56%), 3 championship berth, 5 semifinals

C CONN ST: 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS (50%), no semifinal appearances

WAGNER: 8-8 SU and 6-10 ATS (38%), 3 championship berths, 6 semifinals

LONG ISLAND: 7-6 SU and 5-8 ATS (38%), 1 title, 1 championship berth, 5 semifinals

ST FRANCIS-NY: 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS (33%), 1 championship berth, 1 semifinal

SACRED HEART: 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS (25%), 2 semifinal appearances

Key Trends

  • Underdogs in the Northeast Conference tourney championship game are on a 13-3 ATS (81.3%) run, including 11 outright upsets.
  • Overall favorites of 4.5 points or less are just 4-13 ATS (23.5%) in their last 17 Northeast Conference tourney games.
  • 10 of the last 12 quarterfinal games in the Northeast Conference tourney went UNDER the total.

OHIO VALLEY

Teams in SM Power Rating Order

Team, Power Rating (Rank), Effective Strength (Rank), Recent (Rank)

Conference Tournament Performance (since ’14)

TENNESSEE TECH: 3-5 SU and 5-3 ATS (63%), no semifinal appearances

SE MISSOURI ST: 3-5 SU and 5-3 ATS (63%), 1 semifinal appearance

ARK-LITTLE ROCK: 4-6 SU and 6-4 ATS (60%), 1 title, 1 championship berth, 1 semifinal

MOREHEAD ST: 10-7 SU and ATS (59%), 1 title, 2 championship berths, 5 semifinals

TENN-MARTIN: 3-4 SU and 4-3 ATS (57%), 2 championship berths, 2 semifinals

SIU EDWARDSVILLE: 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS (33%), no semifinal appearances

E ILLINOIS: 3-6 SU and ATS (33%), no semifinal appearances

TENNESSEE ST: 2-5 SU and ATS (29%), no semifinal appearances

Key Trend(s)

  • Ohio Valley Conference title game underdogs are on an 11-1 ATS (91.7%) run.
  • Nine of the last 12 OVC tournament semifinal games have gone UNDER the total (75%).
  • Laying 3 points or more in the OVC tournament has been risky over the last eight years, as these favorites are just 12-24-1 ATS (33.3%).

PATRIOT LEAGUE

Teams in SM Power Rating Order

Team, Power Rating (Rank), Effective Strength (Rank), Recent (Rank)

Conference Tournament Performance (since ’14)

COLGATE: 15-6 SU and 14-7 ATS (67%), 3 titles, 4 championship berths, 6 semifinals

NAVY: 6-9 SU and 9-6 ATS (60%), 1 championship berth, 3 semifinals

AMERICAN: 7-8 SU and 9-6 ATS (60%), 1 title, 2 championship berths, 3 semifinals

BUCKNELL: 13-7 SU and 11-9 ATS (55%), 1 title, 2 championship berths, 6 semifinals

HOLY CROSS: 8-7 SU and ATS (53%), 1 title, 1 championship berth, 3 semifinals

LAFAYETTE: 6-8 SU and 7-7 ATS (50%), 1 title, 1 championship berth, 2 semifinals

LOYOLA-MD: 4-9 SU and 6-7 ATS (46%), 1 championship berth, 1 semifinal

BOSTON U: 10-8 SU and 8-10 ATS (44%), 1 title, 2 championship berths, 5 semifinals

LEHIGH: 7-9 SU and 5-11 ATS (31%), 2 championship berths, 4 semifinals

ARMY: 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS (23%), 3 semifinal appearances

Key Trends

  • Although they have lost the last 16 games outright, double-digit Patriot League tourney underdogs have proven profitable, 16-9 ATS (64%) since 2012.
  • The quarterfinal round of the Patriot League tourney has trended OVER on totals, 23-9 (71.9%) in the last 32.

SOUTHERN CONFERENCE

Teams in SM Power Rating Order

Team, Power Rating (Rank), Effective Strength (Rank), Recent (Rank)

Conference Tournament Performance (since ’14)

THE CITADEL: 5-9 SU and 10-4 ATS (71%), no semifinal appearances

WOFFORD: 15-6 SU and 13-7 ATS (65%), 3 titles, 4 championship berths, 7 semifinals

E TENN ST: 13-7 SU and 11-8 ATS (58%), 2 titles, 4 championship berths, 7 semifinals

SAMFORD: 6-9 SU and 8-6 ATS (57%), 2 semifinal appearances

FURMAN: 8-9 SU and 9-8 ATS (53%), 2 championship berths, 5 semifinals

W CAROLINA: 5-9 SU and 6-8 ATS (43%), 1 championship berth, 4 semifinals

VMI: 4-9 SU and 5-7 ATS (42%), 2 semifinal appearances

MERCER: 9-8 SU and 7-10 ATS (41%), 1 title, 2 championship berths, 3 semifinals

UT-CHATTANOOGA: 8-7 SU and 5-9 ATS (36%), 2 titles, 2 championship berths, 3 semifinals

UNC-GREENSBORO: 11-7 SU and 6-11 ATS (35%), 2 titles, 4 championship berths, 4 semifinals

Key Trends

  • Single-digit favorites in the opening round of the Southern Conference tournament are on a 19-8 SU and ATS (70.3%) run since 2011.
  • The Southern Conference tourney semifinals are on a 12-6 OVER the total run (66.7%).

SOUTHLAND

Teams in SM Power Rating Order

Team, Power Rating (Rank), Effective Strength (Rank), Recent (Rank)

Conference Tournament Performance (since ’14)

NORTHWESTERN ST: 4-4 SU and 5-2 ATS (71%), 3 semifinal appearances

SE LOUISIANA: 5-8 SU and 8-5 ATS (62%), 2 championship berths, 3 semifinals

NEW ORLEANS: 8-6 SU and ATS (57%), 1 title, 2 championship berths, 3 semifinals

HOUSTON CHRISTIAN: 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS (50%), 1 semifinal appearance

LAMAR: 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS (44%), 1 semifinal appearance

NICHOLLS ST: 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS (44%), 1 championship berth, 3 semifinals

MCNEESE ST: 2-6 SU and 3-4 ATS (43%), no semifinal appearances

TEXAS A&M CC: 6-7 SU and 5-8 ATS (38%), 1 title, 3 championship berths, 5 semifinals

INCARNATE WORD: 0-2 SU and ATS (0%), no semifinal appearances

Key Trends

  • The Southland Conference tourney has been a favorite-dominated bracket of late, with the Chalk currently on a 36-11 SU and 30-17 ATS (63.*%) run since ’15.
  • The favorite in the Southland Conference tourney title game is on an 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS (71.4%) run dating back to ’08.
  • OVER the total is 10-3-1 (76.9%) in the last 14 Southland tourney semifinal games, but both went UNDER a year ago.

SUMMIT LEAGUE

Teams in SM Power Rating Order

Team, Power Rating (Rank), Effective Strength (Rank), Recent (Rank)

Conference Tournament Performance (since ’14)

N DAKOTA: 10-6 SU and 11-5 ATS (69%), 1 title, 3 championship berths, 4 semifinals

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N DAKOTA ST: 18-5 SU and 14-7 ATS (67%), 4 titles, 7 championship berths, 8 semifinals

NEBRASKA-OMAHA: 4-7 SU and 6-5 ATS (55%), 2 championship berths, 2 semifinals

DENVER: 3-7 SU and 5-5 ATS (50%), 3 semifinal appearances

S DAKOTA ST: 16-5 SU and 9-11 ATS (45%), 4 titles, 5 championship berths, 7 semifinals

ORAL ROBERTS: 7-7 SU and 6-8 ATS (43%), 1 title, 1 championship berth, 4 semifinals

MISSOURI-KC: 3-8 SU and 4-6 ATS (40%), 3 semifinal appearances

S DAKOTA: 6-9 SU and ATS (40%), 1 championship berth, 5 semifinals

W ILLINOIS: 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS (38%), 1 semifinal appearance

Key Trends

  • Favorites of 5.5 points or more are on a current Summit League tournament run of 28-3 SU and 18-12-1 ATS (60%).
  • The most extreme of totals in the Summit League tournament of late have trended UNDER, with totals >=155 at 9-3 UNDER, and totals <=130 at 9-2 UNDER, both since ’14.

SUN BELT

Teams in SM Power Rating Order

Team, Power Rating (Rank), Effective Strength (Rank), Recent (Rank)

Conference Tournament Performance (since ’14)

LA-MONROE: 6-8 SU and 8-5 ATS (62%), 1 championship berth, 2 semifinals

LA-LAFAYETTE: 12-8 SU and 11-8 ATS (58%), 1 title, 2 championship berths, 6 semifinals

MARSHALL: 11-7 SU and 10-8 ATS (56%), 1 title, 2 championship berths, 3 semifinals

SOUTHERN MISS: 5-6 SU and 6-5 ATS (55%), 3 semifinal appearances

TROY: 7-4 SU and 6-5 ATS (55%), 1 title, 1 championship berth, 2 semifinals

TEXAS ST: 7-7 SU and 7-6 ATS (54%), 1 championship berth, 2 semifinals

APPALACHIAN ST: 7-6 SU and ATS (54%), 1 title, 1 championship berth, 2 semifinals

GEORGIA ST: 14-5 SU and 10-9 ATS (53%), 4 titles, 6 championship berths, 7 semifinals

COASTAL CAROLINA: 9-7 SU and 8-8 ATS (50%), 2 titles, 2 championship berths, 3 semifinals

GA SOUTHERN: 8-8 SU and 7-9 ATS (44%), 1 championship berth, 4 semifinals

S ALABAMA: 5-7 SU and ATS (42%), no semifinal appearances

JAMES MADISON: 2-8 SU and 3-5 ATS (38%), no semifinal appearances

OLD DOMINION: 8-8 SU and 5-10 ATS (33%), 1 title, 2 championship berths, 3 semifinals

ARKANSAS ST: 3-7 SU and ATS (30%), 1 semifinal appearance

Key Trends

Getting a bye in the Sun Belt tournament has been majorly rewarding, as teams that did are 31-7 SU and 22-14-2 ATS (61.1%) against teams that didn’t over the last nine years.

  • Small favorites in the Sun Belt have been money of late, as those laying 4.5 points or less are 26-7 SU and 24-8 ATS (75%) dating back to ’16.

WEST COAST

Teams in SM Power Rating Order

Team, Power Rating (Rank), Effective Strength (Rank), Recent (Rank)

Conference Tournament Performance (since ’14)

SANTA CLARA: 7-9 SU and 11-5 ATS (69%), 2 semifinal appearances

SAN FRANCISCO: 7-9 SU and 10-5 ATS (67%), 4 semifinal appearances

GONZAGA: 22-1 SU and 15-8 ATS (65%), 8 titles, 9 championship berths, 9 semifinals

LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT: 6-9 SU and 8-5 ATS (62%), no semifinal appearances

PEPPERDINE: 8-9 SU and 10-7 ATS (59%), 4 semifinal appearances

SAN DIEGO: 4-9 SU and 5-8 ATS (38%), 1 semifinal appearance

ST MARYS-CA: 12-8 SU and 7-12 ATS (37%), 1 title, 5 championship berths, 8 semifinals

PORTLAND: 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS (33%), 1 semifinal appearance

BYU: 10-9 SU and 5-13 ATS (28%), 4 championship berths, 7 semifinals

PACIFIC: 1-8 SU and 2-6 ATS (25%), no semifinal appearances

Key Trends

  • The last 21 West Coast tourney underdogs of 20 points or fewer facing a team that had a bye in earlier round(s) are 5-16 SU but 15-5-1 ATS (75%).
  • WCC favorites in the semifinal and championship rounds are on a 17-10 ATS (63%) run.
  • The sweet spot for betting favorites in the WCC tourney is in the -6 to -12 line range, 17-2 SU and 14-4-1 ATS (77.8%) in the last 19.
  • West Coast Conference tourney totals of 147 or higher have been explosive lately, going OVER the total at a 16-4-1 (80%) rate, while producing about 157 PPG on average.