Tuley: Monday NHL Best Bet, Sunday recaps; early March Madness first-round picks

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Monday Best Bet, Sunday Recaps

Sunday was an extremely busy day in the Tuley’s Takes home office, though I did take a few hours to escape with the family to see the “Frozen” musical at the Smith Center in downtown Las Vegas.
After the matinee performance, I returned home to check out the NCAA men’s basketball tournament bracket and the opening lines and then wrote my report for the VSiN.com website with an update of the future-book odds and a breakdown of the point spreads by seeding matchups, including the games in which oddsmakers made the lower seeds the favorite.
My Best Bets on Sunday all took place later in the day. I lost my top play on the Wild-Coyotes 1P Under 1.5 +100 as the teams tied 2-2 in the opening 20 minutes and also lost my Vegas-DC Under 41.5 play in the XFL as it looked like a winner until a couple of late scores put it Over in the Defenders’ 32-18 victory. But at least I salvaged the night with a +206 payoff with my NHL 1P Over parlay with the Senators-Flames (Flamed led 2-0 after first period) and Predators-Ducks (tied 2-2).
I ended the day with my regular weekly appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (11:15 p.m. ET/8:15 p.m. PT Sunday nights on VSiN or 15 minutes into the archived version) as we recapped the weekend action and gave a few early leans in NCAA first-round games.
Let’s recap the rest of Sunday’s betting action and then look for a Best Bet on Monday (which I didn’t include on last night’s show) along with those early NCAA plays.

 

Sunday Recaps

CBB: Memphis upset Houston 75-65 in the AAC Championship Game as a 5-point underdog. No. 4 Alabama beat No. 18 Texas A&M 82-63 in the SEC title game and covered as a 5-point favorite. No. 5 Purdue beat Penn State 67-65 in the Big Ten title game, but didn’t cover as a 7.5-point fave.

NBA: Favorites went 4-2 SU but just 3-3 ATS on Sunday as the Hornets (+10) covered in their 114-108 loss vs. the Cavaliers. The upsets were by the Nets (+9 in 122-120 win at Nuggets) and Knicks (+2.5 in 112-108 win at Lakers). Road teams went 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS. Over/Unders split 3-3.

More NBA: On the season, favorites lead 658-345 SU with 16 games closing pick-’em, but underdogs lead 498-482-23 ATS (50.8%). Home teams still lead 598-421 SU and 517-481-21 ATS (51.8%). In totals wagering, Overs still lead at 511-493-15 (50.9%).

NHL: Favorites went 5-3 on Sunday with upsets by the Red Wings (+204 in 5-3 win vs. the Bruins), Jets (+158 in 3-2 win at the Lightning) and Coyotes (+175 in 5-4 OT win vs. the Wild). Home teams also went 5-3. Over/Unders split 4-4.

XFL: DC Defenders beat Vegas Vipers 32-18, covering as 6-point home favorites, to wrap up Week 4 on Sunday night (game went Over betting total of 41.5 points). Earlier the St. Louis Battlehawks beat the Arlington Renegades 24-11, covering as 4-point home faves (stayed Under 37).

More XFL: Faves swept 2-0 SU and ATS Sunday to sweep 4-0 SU and ATS in Week 4 and improve to 13-3 SU and 10-5-1 ATS overall. Home teams swept 2-0 SU and ATS Sunday to finish 3-1 SU and ATS in Week 4 and improve to 10-6 SU overall and take 8-7-1 ATS lead. Over/Unders split 1-1 Sunday, finished 2-2 in Week 4 and remained at .500 overall at 8-8.

Monday NHL Best Bet

Sabres-Maple Leafs 1P Over 1.5 -190 / Stars-Kraken 1P Over 1.5 -125 (parlay pays +175): We’ll stick to the ice after scoring (literally) with our 1P Over parlay on Sunday. The Sabres are the No. 3 1P Over team and are a combined 78-52 (60%) with the Maple Leafs. The Kraken are the No. 5 1P Over team and are a combined 73-59 (55.3%) with the Stars.

Early NCAA March Madness picks

College of Charleston +5 vs. San Diego State: As I mentioned on “The Greg Peterson Experience,” this is a No. 12 seed vs. a No. 5 and the dog has already been attracting money. We believe the line will probably only continue to drop once the public gets involved. DraftKings still had the line at 5.5 early Monday morning with several books at 5, so I think we should grab it ASAP.

Missouri +2.5 vs. Utah State: This is another line that we’re pretty sure is only going to drop as oddsmakers made Utah State the favorite despite being a No, 10 seed vs. a No. 7. Most books are down to +2 overnight.

VSiN College Basketball Links

Previews of all First-Round Games

Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines

College Basketball Betting Splits

College Basketball Odds

Peterson’s Daily CBB Podcast

VSiN College Basketball Betting Podcast