NCAA March Madness: TCU vs. Arizona State betting preview, odds and predictions


NCAA March Madness: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Arizona State Sun Devils betting preview, odds and predictions

In the 6 vs. 11 matchup in the West region of the 2023 NCAA tournament, the TCU Horned Frogs face the Arizona State Sun Devils with a spot in the Round of 32 on the line. All tournament long, VSiN will be providing you with March Madness betting oddsin-depth team analysis and expert college basketball picks. Make us your one-stop shop for all of your betting needs. 


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How to watch TCU vs. Arizona State

When: Friday, 10:05 p.m. ET

Where: Denver, Colorado 

Watch: truTV

Odds for TCU vs. Arizona State

Spread: TCU -6

Total: 141

(Odds accurate as of Thursday, March 16th at 8:00 a.m. ET)

Real-time betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook

West Region No. 6 Seed TCU Horned Frogs

The Horned Frogs held their own in a grueling Big 12 this year, and Jamie Dixon’s team will now look to turn its attention to March Madness. In Mike Miles Jr. and Damion Baugh, TCU has a very good backcourt and one that won’t be afraid in big moments. Miles is especially unflappable as a scorer, as he has no conscience and loves to step up and take big shots. The team also happens to have some toughness in the paint. However, the real calling card for the Horned Frogs is their defense. They’re one of the better defensive teams in college basketball and nobody will want to face them in the tournament.

West Region No. 11 Seed Arizona State Sun Devils

Arizona State opened the year with an 11-1 record, earning wins over the VCU Rams, Michigan Wolverines and Creighton Bluejays in that stretch. The Sun Devils then went just 11-11 the rest of the way, which put the team firmly on the bubble heading into March Madness. But this is a very dangerous team, as Bobby Hurley’s squad can really defend. The Sun Devils also have a decent amount of talent offensively, with Desmond Cambridge Jr. and DJ Horne being two guys that can swing games with their shotmaking. It wouldn’t be surprising if Arizona State went out in the first round or won multiple games. That’s the type of season it has been.

TCU vs. Arizona State matchup analysis

We hear a lot of talk about getting hot at the right time in the NCAA Tournament, but what about not missing a shot at the right time? Arizona State shot 63.6% overall, including nearly 71% on 2s and 52.4% on 3s to blow out Nevada and hop a flight from Dayton to Denver for Friday’s game against TCU. For an offensively-challenged bunch that ranks 293rd in eFG%, 292nd in 3P% and 254th in 2P%, the offensive barrage was certainly a surprise.

The claim to fame for ASU this season has been on the defensive side, where the Sun Devils hold opponents to just 43.8% on 2-pointers and rank 57th in the nation in TO%. If they weren’t able to pack all of that offense in the cargo hold under the plane, at least the defense should travel. At least that’s how the old adage goes.

TCU played 19 Quadrant I games and went 8-11 in those matchups, but it was a tale of two seasons for the Horned Frogs. You have the games with Mike Miles Jr. and the games without. Miles has averaged 17.3 points per game to this point and the Horned Frogs lost four of the five games he missed from Jan. 31 to Feb. 15. He also missed an early season nonconference game against Jackson State that the Frogs won with ease.

In the Big 12 games with Miles, the Horned Frogs went 8-4 and they wound up playing a top-30 strength of schedule because of the games against conference opposition. Like Arizona State, the defense is better than the offense for Jamie Dixon’s squad, as the Horned Frogs are 24th in TO% at 24.9% and held opponents to just 30.4% from 3 (21st). Offensively, though, TCU is stronger, coming in as a top-100 team in 2P%.

By the numbers, you have an elite Arizona State defense inside the arc and a TCU team that shoots 30.6% (338th) from 3, so the Horned Frogs have to finish on the interior against a stingy Sun Devils squad. TCU’s 3P Rate was only 29.4% (337th), so they don’t take a lot of 3s. That’s the key matchup here and will decide the winner.

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