Saturday Best Bets, Friday Recaps
I went from almost not posting any Best Bets on a tough Friday card (see how favorites fared below in our recaps as we were right that there were very few live dogs overall) in the Tuley’s Takes home office to sweeping our plays for a great way to start the weekend!
We won our top play of the day on Murray State-Drake Under 142 as it played out exactly as I predicted with Drake pulling away in the second half and the game not turning into a foul-fest at the end to help keep it Under. Both teams were still trying to score, but milking the shot clock each possession as Drake coasted to a 74-62 spread-covering victory as a 10.5-point favorite.
VSiN reader and a Twitter follower of mine @AJThompman pointed out that Missouri Valley Unders started the day at 0-2 (and 1-5 at that point of the conference tournament), but I replied that they did end up 2-2 on the day and at least I won my one and only play. That was enough of a turnaround for me!
We also won our second play of the day on the Jets-Oilers First-Period Under 1.5 at a juicy +145 as the Oilers scored just 2:05 into the game but it went scoreless the rest of the opening 20 minutes to give us the cash even though there ended up being a total of 9 goals scored in the game.
Those improved our record the past 7 days in these daily columns to 11-8 for a profit of 3.46 units and back into the Top 10 on the VSiN.com Best Bets page. Note; we also cashed in again on Gill Alexander’s tennis play on Katie Volynets +135 in the ATX Open for a very profitable day, so we certainly condone checking out that page to supplement your own handicapping.
Let’s recap the rest of Friday’s action in the major team sports and then look for more Best Bets for Saturday. Note: I don’t have an XFL play on the day’s lone game as the line is too short for me to take the winless Vegas Vipers as only 3-point home underdogs. When the lines first came out Sunday night with the Over/Under at only 36, I loved the Over; however, I missed it and the market quickly went to 38 and I ended up passing, But there’s plenty of other games to choose from on a very busy sports betting day.
Friday Recaps
CBB: Favorites went 12-5 SU in conference tournament games on Friday and 9-6-2 ATS with pushes by Southern Illinois (-3 vs Missouri State) and NC Asheville (-9 vs. Charleston Southern). Northern Iowa (+10) covered in a 72-66 loss to Bradley. Biggest upset was by Campbell (+6) in an 81-68 win vs. Longwood in Big South tourney.
NBA: Faves went 8-2 SU Friday and 7-3 ATS as the Clippers (+7) covered in 128-127 loss at the Kings. The upsets were by the Nets (+10.5 in 115-105 win at Celtics) and Knicks (+1 in 122-120 win at the Heat). Home/road teams split 5-5 SU but road teams led 6-4 ATS; Unders 6-4.
More NBA: On the season, favorites lead 615-324 SU with 15 games closing pick-’em, but underdogs still lead 464-453-22 (50.6%). Home teams still lead 566-388 SU and 489-445-20 ATS (52.4%). In totals wagering, Overs still hold slim lead at 472-468-14 (50.2%).
NHL: Favorites went a perfect 5-0 on Friday with the Hurricanes (-350 at Coyotes), Oilers (-174 vs. Jets), Kraken (-165 at Blue Jackets), Ducks (-120 vs. Canadiens) and Golden Knights (-110 in shootout vs. Devils) winning as chalk. Home teams went 3-2. Overs led 3-2.
College basketball Best Bet
Indiana State +2.5 vs. Bradley: With the way Indiana State just outshot Belmont 94-91 in the Missouri Valley quarterfinals, we’re shying away from the MVC Under angle and taking the Sycamores as short underdogs vs. No, 1 seeded Bradley, which just struggled to get past Northern Iowa 72-66. Bradley won the earlier meeting, but Indiana State is playing so much better now as it’s 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS down the stretch.
Lightning-Sabres 1P Over 1.5 -175 / Maple Leafs-Canucks 1P Over -165 (parlay pays +152): We’re not neglecting hockey on Saturday as we’re going back to a 1P Over parlay with the Sabres (the No. 3 1P Over team at 39-21) and the Canucks (the No. 1 1P Over team at 46-15). The Sabres are playing a decent Over team in the Lightning as they’re a combined 72-49 (59.5%) with 1P Overs while the Canucks play the No. 7 1P Over team in the Maple Leafs as they combine to hit an even better 81-42 (65.9%). The parlay pays a juicy +152.
Blues +180 at Kings: Speaking of juicy prices, we get the Blues at +180 as a swagger play after snapping their 6-game losing streak on Thursday in San Jose. I was hoping to get plus-money on the +1.5 puck line, but that’s -140 so we’ll stick to the straight money line and count on the Blues to get the outright upset.
Spurs +1.5 vs. Rockets: The Spurs came through for us as a swagger play on Thursday night by beating the Pacers after snapping their long 16-game losing streak the prior game. We usually don’t count on “swagger” to carry over past that first game, but the Rockets are on an 11-game losing streak of their own and we have no problems fading them with a suddenly confident San Antonio squad.
XFL Week 3 Best Bet
San Antonio Brahmas +4 at Houston Roughnecks: I gave this out Sunday night/Monday morning and it’s up to +4.5 at BetMGM and Resorts World here in Vegas as well as DraftKIngs in other states, so followers might want to wait and shop around. Houston was middle-of-the-pack in preseason XFL futures but they were made the +350 favorite at Circa Sports after routing Orlando 33-12 in the season-opener and beating Arlington 23-14 on Sunday night. Meanwhile, San Antonio lost only 18-15 to preseason favorite St. Louis in the opener and then nearly beat Orlando (30-12) by as much as Houston did. Road teams are 5-3 ATS so far in the XFL, so I think Houston is being given too much for home-field advantage in a game that I feel should be closer to pick-’em, or at least under a field goal.
