Effective College Football Play-by-Play Ratings for Week 9:
Once again, I’m publishing the full list of Week 9 games in this week’s Effective Play-by-Play Ratings article, with both full-season and forecasted formats. After introducing the forecasted metrics last week, readers were interested in how they would fare. As it turned out, the full-season numbers performed much better. Is this a fluke? Too early to tell, but after an outstanding 34-22 ATS performance last week, the full-season model is 96-74 ATS (55.3%) over the past three weeks. That’s a solid return for a math model in college football betting. The forecasted model went 29-27 ATS last week.
I added the forecasted model to account for teams that started hot but have cooled off dramatically.
As a quick reminder, Effective Play-by-Play Ratings differ from my Effective Strength Ratings. Rather than simply gauging the end result, they evaluate a team’s performance across all scrimmage plays. Both models account for each team’s schedule to date.
Some prefer this approach to traditional power ratings based on scoring because the latter can be skewed by fluky plays, turnovers, fourth-down conversions, and other factors. Both methods have value, and combining different measures of team strength may be the best approach. Personally, I believe Effective Play-by-Play Ratings may offer a more accurate picture of team strength because they draw on a much larger data sample. That’s particularly useful in college football, where talent disparities between teams can be enormous.
All the strength ratings discussed here are adjusted for schedule strength, account for games that became noncompetitive late and include relevant injury adjustments.
As usual, the games are listed by the discrepancy between the full-season Effective Play-by-Play line and the actual line. The forecasted Effective Play-by-Play line can differ in both the favored team and the size of the disparity.
For a good example of recency bias diverging from the full-season numbers, look at Delaware-Western Kentucky, the first game of the week and the 34th on this list. The data suggests Western Kentucky has been clearly better lately, while the full-season numbers show the Blue Hens with a 4.6-point edge off the point spread for the 2026 season.
(113) FLORIDA ATLANTIC at (114) NORTH TEXAS
Actual Line: NORTH TEXAS -13.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NORTH TEXAS -36.8
Difference: 23.3 – Favors: NORTH TEXAS
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: NORTH TEXAS -36
Difference: 22.5 – Favors: NORTH TEXAS
(193) MISSISSIPPI STATE at (194) TEXAS
Actual Line: TEXAS -21
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TEXAS -5
Difference: 16 – Favors: MISSISSIPPI STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: TEXAS -15.3
Difference: 5.7 – Favors: MISSISSIPPI STATE
(153) MINNESOTA at (154) INDIANA
Actual Line: INDIANA -20.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: INDIANA -35.9
Difference: 15.4 – Favors: INDIANA
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: INDIANA -37.8
Difference: 17.3 – Favors: INDIANA
(187) OREGON STATEATE at (188) FRESNO STATE
Actual Line: FRESNO STATE +5.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: FRESNO STATE +20.1
Difference: 14.6 – Favors: OREGON STATEATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: FRESNO STATE +21.7
Difference: 16.2 – Favors: OREGON STATEATE
(151) VIRGINIA at (152) WAKE FOREST
Actual Line: WAKE FOREST -12.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WAKE FOREST -26
Difference: 13.5 – Favors: WAKE FOREST
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: WAKE FOREST -32.1
Difference: 19.6 – Favors: WAKE FOREST
(177) CONNECTICUT at (178) AIR FORCE
Actual Line: AIR FORCE -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: AIR FORCE +10.7
Difference: 13.2 – Favors: CONNECTICUT
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: AIR FORCE +9.7
Difference: 12.2 – Favors: CONNECTICUT
(131) STANFORD at (132) LOUISVILLE
Actual Line: LOUISVILLE -22.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LOUISVILLE -35.1
Difference: 12.6 – Favors: LOUISVILLE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: LOUISVILLE -36.6
Difference: 14.1 – Favors: LOUISVILLE
(189) OHIO STATE at (190) USC
Actual Line: USC +6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: USC +17.5
Difference: 11 – Favors: OHIO STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: USC +14.5
Difference: 8 – Favors: OHIO STATE
(209) TEXAS STATE at (210) BOISE STATE
Actual Line: BOISE STATE -11.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: BOISE STATE -0.6
Difference: 10.9 – Favors: TEXAS STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: BOISE STATE -3.3
Difference: 8.3 – Favors: TEXAS STATE
(211) NORTHERN ILLINOIS at (212) UNLV
Actual Line: UNLV -23.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UNLV -12.7
Difference: 10.8 – Favors: NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: UNLV -13.8
Difference: 9.7 – Favors: NORTHERN ILLINOIS
(171) ARIZONA at (172) TEXAS TECH
Actual Line: TEXAS TECH -3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TEXAS TECH +6.3
Difference: 9.8 – Favors: ARIZONA
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: TEXAS TECH +7
Difference: 10.5 – Favors: ARIZONA
(197) UTEP at (198) NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Actual Line: NORTH DAKOTA STATE -25.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NORTH DAKOTA STATE -16
Difference: 9.5 – Favors: UTEP
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: NORTH DAKOTA STATE -22.9
Difference: 2.6 – Favors: UTEP
(169) LOUISIANA TECH at (170) SOUTH ALABAMA
Actual Line: SOUTH ALABAMA +5.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SOUTH ALABAMA +14.9
Difference: 9.4 – Favors: LOUISIANA TECH
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: SOUTH ALABAMA +12.7
Difference: 7.2 – Favors: LOUISIANA TECH
(205) COLORADO STATE at (206) UTAH STATE
Actual Line: UTAH STATE -6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UTAH STATE -15.8
Difference: 9.3 – Favors: UTAH STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: UTAH STATE -18.5
Difference: 12 – Favors: UTAH STATE
(181) NEW MEXICO at (182) SAN JOSE STATE
Actual Line: SAN JOSE STATE +14.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SAN JOSE STATE +6.2
Difference: 8.3 – Favors: SAN JOSE STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: SAN JOSE STATE +7.5
Difference: 7 – Favors: SAN JOSE STATE
(179) KANSAS STATE at (180) COLORADO
Actual Line: COLORADO +2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: COLORADO -5.8
Difference: 8.3 – Favors: COLORADO
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: COLORADO -13.6
Difference: 16.1 – Favors: COLORADO
(119) ARMY at (120) MEMPHIS
Actual Line: MEMPHIS -6
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MEMPHIS -14.1
Difference: 8.1 – Favors: MEMPHIS
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: MEMPHIS -11.9
Difference: 5.9 – Favors: MEMPHIS
(185) NEVADA at (186) UCLA
Actual Line: UCLA -22.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UCLA -29.6
Difference: 7.1 – Favors: UCLA
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: UCLA -31.9
Difference: 9.4 – Favors: UCLA
(173) OKLAHOMA STATE at (174) IOWA STATE
Actual Line: IOWA STATE +8.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: IOWA STATE +15.4
Difference: 6.9 – Favors: OKLAHOMA STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: IOWA STATE +24.6
Difference: 16.1 – Favors: OKLAHOMA STATE
(163) MISSOURI at (164) ARKANSAS
Actual Line: ARKANSAS +10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARKANSAS +16.7
Difference: 6.7 – Favors: MISSOURI
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: ARKANSAS +19.3
Difference: 9.3 – Favors: MISSOURI
(143) UAB at (144) SOUTH FLORIDA
Actual Line: SOUTH FLORIDA -8.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SOUTH FLORIDA -2.2
Difference: 6.3 – Favors: UAB
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: SOUTH FLORIDA -2.9
Difference: 5.6 – Favors: UAB
(117) BAYLOR at (118) UCF
Actual Line: UCF -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UCF -7.7
Difference: 6.2 – Favors: UCF
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: UCF -7.3
Difference: 5.8 – Favors: UCF
(159) NOTRE DAME at (160) NAVY
Actual Line: NAVY +30.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NAVY +24.3
Difference: 6.2 – Favors: NAVY
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: NAVY +22
Difference: 8.5 – Favors: NAVY
(105) KENNESAW STATE at (106) MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE
Actual Line: MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +3.6
Difference: 6.1 – Favors: KENNESAW STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +9.3
Difference: 11.8 – Favors: KENNESAW STATE
(161) SOUTH CAROLINA at (162) OKLAHOMA
Actual Line: OKLAHOMA -5.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OKLAHOMA +0.4
Difference: 5.9 – Favors: SOUTH CAROLINA
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: OKLAHOMA +3
Difference: 8.5 – Favors: SOUTH CAROLINA
(139) APPALACHIAN STATE at (140) GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Actual Line: GEORGIA SOUTHERN -5.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA SOUTHERN -11.4
Difference: 5.9 – Favors: GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA SOUTHERN -15.8
Difference: 10.3 – Favors: GEORGIA SOUTHERN
(121) MARSHALL at (122) OLD DOMINION
Actual Line: OLD DOMINION +2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OLD DOMINION -3
Difference: 5.5 – Favors: OLD DOMINION
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: OLD DOMINION -0.5
Difference: 3 – Favors: OLD DOMINION
(165) COASTAL CAROLINA at (166) GEORGIA STATE
Actual Line: GEORGIA STATE -6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA STATE -12
Difference: 5.5 – Favors: GEORGIA STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA STATE -21.3
Difference: 14.8 – Favors: GEORGIA STATE
(127) FLORIDA at (128) GEORGIA
Actual Line: GEORGIA -11.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA -16.9
Difference: 5.4 – Favors: GEORGIA
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA -20.1
Difference: 8.6 – Favors: GEORGIA
(157) CLEMSON at (158) FLORIDA STATE
Actual Line: FLORIDA STATE -6
Effective Play-by-Play Line: FLORIDA STATE -11.1
Difference: 5.1 – Favors: FLORIDA STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: FLORIDA STATE -12.6
Difference: 6.6 – Favors: FLORIDA STATE
(129) TEMPLE at (130) EAST CAROLINA
Actual Line: EAST CAROLINA -6
Effective Play-by-Play Line: EAST CAROLINA -1.1
Difference: 4.9 – Favors: TEMPLE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: EAST CAROLINA +1.4
Difference: 7.4 – Favors: TEMPLE
(147) BOWLING GREEN at (148) WESTERN MICHIGAN
Actual Line: WESTERN MICHIGAN -13.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WESTERN MICHIGAN -18.3
Difference: 4.8 – Favors: WESTERN MICHIGAN
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: WESTERN MICHIGAN -16.4
Difference: 2.9 – Favors: WESTERN MICHIGAN
(191) AUBURN at (192) OLE MISS
Actual Line: OLE MISS -13.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OLE MISS -8.8
Difference: 4.7 – Favors: AUBURN
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: OLE MISS -5.2
Difference: 8.3 – Favors: AUBURN
(101) DELAWARE at (102) WESTERN KENTUCKY
Actual Line: WESTERN KENTUCKY -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WESTERN KENTUCKY +3.1
Difference: 4.6 – Favors: DELAWARE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: WESTERN KENTUCKY -4.6
Difference: 3.1 – Favors: WESTERN KENTUCKY
(195) WASHINGTON at (196) NEBRASKA
Actual Line: NEBRASKA -7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NEBRASKA -12
Difference: 4.5 – Favors: NEBRASKA
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: NEBRASKA -11.2
Difference: 3.7 – Favors: NEBRASKA
(125) UTAH at (126) CINCINNATI
Actual Line: CINCINNATI +6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: CINCINNATI +2.2
Difference: 4.3 – Favors: CINCINNATI
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: CINCINNATI -3
Difference: 9.5 – Favors: CINCINNATI
(199) SOUTHERN MISS at (200) LOUISIANA-MONROE
Actual Line: LOUISIANA-MONROE +3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LOUISIANA-MONROE +7.1
Difference: 3.6 – Favors: SOUTHERN MISS
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: LOUISIANA-MONROE +9.5
Difference: 6 – Favors: SOUTHERN MISS
(107) JACKSONVILLE STATE at (108) NEW MEXICO STATE
Actual Line: NEW MEXICO STATE +3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NEW MEXICO STATE +0.3
Difference: 3.2 – Favors: NEW MEXICO STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: NEW MEXICO STATE +4
Difference: 0.5 – Favors: JACKSONVILLE STATE
(201) WISCONSIN at (202) IOWA
Actual Line: IOWA -3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: IOWA -6.6
Difference: 3.1 – Favors: IOWA
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: IOWA -2
Difference: 1.5 – Favors: WISCONSIN
(167) KANSAS at (168) TCU
Actual Line: TCU -6
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TCU -8.7
Difference: 2.7 – Favors: TCU
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: TCU -10.4
Difference: 4.4 – Favors: TCU
(183) NORTHWESTERN at (184) OREGON
Actual Line: OREGON -3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OREGON -1.5
Difference: 2 – Favors: NORTHWESTERN
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: OREGON -3.1
Difference: 0.4 – Favors: NORTHWESTERN
(135) ILLINOIS at (136) MARYLAND
Actual Line: MARYLAND +2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MARYLAND +4.3
Difference: 1.8 – Favors: ILLINOIS
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: MARYLAND +6.7
Difference: 4.2 – Favors: ILLINOIS
(115) TULANE at (116) CHARLOTTE
Actual Line: CHARLOTTE +10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: CHARLOTTE +8.2
Difference: 1.8 – Favors: CHARLOTTE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: CHARLOTTE +7.1
Difference: 2.9 – Favors: CHARLOTTE
(207) WASHINGTON STATE at (208) SAN DIEGO STATE
Actual Line: SAN DIEGO STATE -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SAN DIEGO STATE -4.2
Difference: 1.7 – Favors: SAN DIEGO STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: SAN DIEGO STATE -4.8
Difference: 2.3 – Favors: SAN DIEGO STATE
(133) GEORGIA TECH at (134) PITTSBURGH
Actual Line: PITTSBURGH -7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: PITTSBURGH -9.2
Difference: 1.7 – Favors: PITTSBURGH
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: PITTSBURGH +0
Difference: 7.5 – Favors: GEORGIA TECH
(141) MIAMI FL at (142) NORTH CAROLINA
Actual Line: NORTH CAROLINA +14.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NORTH CAROLINA +12.8
Difference: 1.7 – Favors: MIAMI FL
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: NORTH CAROLINA +12.8
Difference: 1.7 – Favors: NORTH CAROLINA
(103) SAM HOUSTON STATE at (104) MISSOURI STATE
Actual Line: MISSOURI STATE -5.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MISSOURI STATE -3.9
Difference: 1.6 – Favors: SAM HOUSTON STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: MISSOURI STATE -2.9
Difference: 2.6 – Favors: SAM HOUSTON STATE
(213) KENT STATE at (214) SACRAMENTO STATE
Actual Line: SACRAMENTO STATE +10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SACRAMENTO STATE +9
Difference: 1 – Favors: SACRAMENTO STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: SACRAMENTO STATE +11.3
Difference: 1.3 – Favors: KENT STATE
(155) PURDUE at (156) PENN STATE
Actual Line: PENN STATE -7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: PENN STATE -8.5
Difference: 1 – Favors: PENN STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: PENN STATE +2.3
Difference: 9.8 – Favors: PURDUE
(123) CALIFORNIA at (124) NC STATE
Actual Line: NC STATE -7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NC STATE -8
Difference: 1 – Favors: NC STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: NC STATE -4
Difference: 3 – Favors: CALIFORNIA
(137) MICHIGAN at (138) RUTGERS
Actual Line: RUTGERS +14
Effective Play-by-Play Line: RUTGERS +15
Difference: 1 – Favors: MICHIGAN
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: RUTGERS +15.6
Difference: 1.6 – Favors: MICHIGAN
(175) ARIZONA STATE at (176) BYU
Actual Line: BYU -16.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: BYU -15.5
Difference: 1 – Favors: ARIZONA STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: BYU -19.4
Difference: 2.9 – Favors: BYU
(203) FLORIDA ATLANTIC at (204) LIBERTY
Actual Line: LIBERTY -14
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LIBERTY -13.1
Difference: 0.9 – Favors: FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: LIBERTY -48.4
Difference: 34.4 – Favors: LIBERTY
(145) SMU at (146) SYRACUSE
Actual Line: SYRACUSE +10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SYRACUSE +10.7
Difference: 0.7 – Favors: SMU
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: SYRACUSE +6
Difference: 4 – Favors: SYRACUSE
(111) TROY at (112) JAMES MADISON
Actual Line: JAMES MADISON -21
Effective Play-by-Play Line: JAMES MADISON -20.4
Difference: 0.6 – Favors: TROY
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: JAMES MADISON -20.7
Difference: 0.3 – Favors: TROY
(149) BOSTON COLLEGE at (150) DUKE
Actual Line: DUKE -7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: DUKE -6.8
Difference: 0.2 – Favors: BOSTON COLLEGE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: DUKE -2.5
Difference: 4.5 – Favors: BOSTON COLLEGE
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