AMERICAN CONFERENCE OVERVIEW
The American Conference seems pretty wide-open for the 2026 season and it’s fair to wonder if any team will have the record or resume to represent the Group of Six in the College Football Playoff. There are four new head coaches and five second-year head coaches in the conference, so nine of the league’s 14 teams are tough to project. Tenured coaches might have an inside track this season, but anything could happen.
In terms of preseason conference winner odds, only the MAC has a higher-priced favorite than the American and seven of the 14 teams are priced at +800 or lower. Navy is the tepid favorite here with one of the more tenured coaches in the conference, as Brian Newberry begins his fourth season at the helm. UTSA’s Jeff Traylor and Army’s Jeff Monken are the only two sideline bosses with more years under their belts than Newberry. It probably isn’t a coincidence that UTSA (+480) and Army (6-1) are the second and third favorites, respectively, behind Navy (+310).
Life is tough in the American Conference for college football these days. As mentioned, nine of the 14 teams have head coaches hired within the last two seasons because this conference is a springboard to Power Four jobs. Furthermore, any players that stand out are going to be on the minds of SEC, ACC, Big Ten, and Big 12 teams that are looking to fill some voids and plug some holes. In some respects, the service academies have an advantage in that they aren’t watching players go out the door for NIL paydays, but they also can’t leverage the transfer portal to their advantage.
Outside of Army and Navy, just about every program in the conference has fewer than 10 returning starters. But, that doesn’t mean they are immune to big personnel losses, especially in Navy’s case with QB Blake Horvath.
In a high-variance conference, there should be money to be made, whether you can isolate overachievers or underachievers with props and futures before the season or on a weekly basis.
ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS
Rival Navy had the upper hand on Army heading into last season because QB Blake Horvath still had eligibility left, whereas Bryson Daily had exhausted his. The loss of Daily was exacerbated by the loss of star RB Kanye Udoh. Replicating their 12-2 record from 2024 was going to be an insurmountable challenge, and the fact that the Black Knights still did well enough to have a winning record at 7-6 thanks to a bowl game blowout of a severely-undermanned UConn squad was another example of how solid Jeff Monken has been in West Point.
Monken is starting off his 13th year here. If we take UTSA’s Jeff Traylor out of the mix, Monken’s 12 years are nearly what the rest of the conference’s head coaches have combined. The Black Knights have had one losing season since 2015 and have a high floor once again.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Can Cale complete the season?
That’s Cale Hellums, Army’s starting QB, who split time last season to a degree with Dewayne Coleman. The 5-foot-10 Hellums had 304 carries last season for 1,223 yards and 18 TDs. He added four passing TDs and 694 yards as well. But, that’s a really brutal workload for a smaller-statured guy and something that obviously has to be considered with any long-term position on Army. It’s entirely possible that Monken and OC Cody Worley found something in converted QB and all-name-team member Godspower Nwawuihe, who ran for 171 yards in the Fenway Bowl. Considering Noah Short, Hayden Reed, Coleman, and Briggs Bartosh are all gone, somebody has to help Hellums with rush attempts, as he had nearly 41% of the carries.
Will the conference adjust to Army in Year 3?
This will be Army’s third year in the American. So far, they are 12-4 in league play, but that mark is a tale of two seasons with an 8-0 record in Year 1 and a 4-4 record in Year 2. When Navy joined the AAC in 2015, they went 7-1 in league play in each of their first two seasons before dropping to 4-4 in Year 3 and then 2-6 in Year 4. The absences of Daily and Udoh absolutely played a role, but the Black Knights had 5.7 YPC in 2024 and 4.38 YPC in 2025 in conference games. Army is also +12 in TO margin in two years of conference play. Obviously their style of play limits the potential for turnovers, but it’s still something to think about.
Who is going to step up on defense?
DC Nate Woody is now in Cincinnati, so pass game coordinator Daryl Dixon, not to be confused with The Walking Dead character of the same name, has that role. Dixon has been with the program for the last 10 seasons, so he’s very familiar with the scheme and the types of players that Army has on defense. It’s almost always an undersized unit in the trenches, but often an experienced crew. This season is a bit of an exception. While there are a lot of seniors on the two-deep, the top seven tacklers are all gone, including Andon Thomas, who led the team with 113 tackles. Dixon, who has mostly coached defensive backs, needs to find more negative plays, as the Black Knights only had 15 sacks.
Army 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 7.5 Wins
A Hellums injury would be brutal for Army, as they have no game experience behind him. Furthermore, Woody is a big loss on the defensive side. As it is, Army was outgained by nearly a full yard per play in conference action. Yes, that’s expected to a certain degree because of how much they run the football relative to their opponents, but that was absolutely not the case in 2024 when they outgained conference foes by nearly 1.2 YPP. The conference members adjusted and it took a long time for Navy to adjust back when it happened to them. The Black Knights play at a rest disadvantage in each of their first three October games and UTSA is the only team projected in the top-half of the conference that they avoid. My projection is 6.92 wins.
CHARLOTTE 49ERS
Apparently Tim Albin felt like Charlotte Green was a brighter shade than Bobcat Green, as he gave up a pretty good gig at Ohio to take on arguably the biggest challenge in the American Conference. Charlotte is probably the second-toughest job behind Rice, where the academic standards are a hindrance, but the results point towards this as the toughest job given that the 49ers were 1-11 overall, 0-8 in conference play, and only beat FCS Monmouth.
Albin had three straight double-digit winning seasons at Ohio before suffering through his first season in the Queen City. And “suffer” is the accurate description because the team only scored 14.3 PPG, gave up more than 36, got outgained by nearly two yards per play, and the closest conference loss was by 11 points. Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
At least there’s nowhere to go but up, right?!
The bar has been set so low at Charlotte now that I’m not even sure a toddler could crawl under it. Since joining the FBS ranks over a decade ago, Charlotte has one bowl game appearance. Last season was probably as close to rock bottom as it has gotten. The defense managed just 14 sacks, the offense had just 2.7 yards per carry, and a lot of it had to do with how painfully thin the roster was when Albin took the job. Neither the incoming class nor the portal class graded all that highly for 247Sports relative to the rest of the conference, but there are a lot more warm bodies and some of them are probably better at football than the ones that were there.
Is there a starting QB on the roster?
Charlotte’s boosters and supporters did open their wallets to try and get Albin a real QB last season, picking up Grayson Loftis from Duke and Conner Harrell from North Carolina. Harrell suffered a season-ending injury after emerging as the better option with a 66.7% completion rate and a 4/2 TD/INT ratio, leaving it in the hands of Loftis, who had an 8/8 TD/INT ratio with just a 55% completion rate. Even Zach Wilcke got some reps, though he’s since moved on. This season, the starting gig may fall on the shoulders of Western Carolina transfer Cole Gonzales, at least until Harrell returns. None of the options are particularly good. On the plus side, almost all the backs and receivers are new, which can only help after last season’s 4.6 YPP.
Where’s the beef?
One of the problems that plagued Charlotte last season, and has clearly been a thing for several years now, is that they are not big enough or strong enough up front. Last year’s team was -2.3 in yards per carry differential. The team before that was -1.6 YPC. The 2019 Charlotte team had a positive YPC differential and that’s the one that went bowling. Not to mention, the 49ers haven’t had more than 20 sacks in a season since that ‘19 campaign. Prior to becoming the OC at Ohio, Albin primarily coached offensive linemen and running backs. Clearly the athletic department felt the same way when they hired Biff Poggi in terms of the team’s lack of toughness in the trenches. If Albin can improve that, he can find some momentum.
Charlotte 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 2.5 Wins
The product on the field should look better, but finding two more wins on the schedule than last season is a chore. Charlotte should begin 1-0 against The Citadel, but Temple, Tulsa, and UAB are their most winnable games on paper otherwise and every single one of them is on the road. Depth is still an issue here and probably the best QB on the roster (Harrell) will be out until mid-October or so. My projection is 1.81 wins.
EAST CAROLINA PIRATES
It is often bittersweet for a Group of Six program when a head coach is having a lot of success. Blake Harrell is 14-5 as the head coach at East Carolina, as he led the team to five wins in their final six games in 2024 and then a 9-4 record this past season. Harrell also owns upset wins over two ACC programs in bowl games, including in-state rival NC State, who did get revenge in the season opener last year, but in a very competitive 24-17 game.
We’ll see if this will be Harrell’s last season with the program or not, as the 46-year-old could either take a big-time defensive coordinator job or level up as a head coach. If he has similar success this season, it will be a thoroughly impressive coaching job with virtually none of last season’s major contributors back in the fold. Not only that, but Harrell is working alongside two new coordinators as his previous ones are now at Ole Miss and South Florida.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
More run or more shoot?
The new OC is Jordan Davis and that means a scheme change in Greenville. Davis was working under Eric Morris at North Texas, an offense that led the nation in points per game with over 45, yards per game with just over 512, and ranked third in yards per play. While the prevailing thought would be that a Morris-led offense would just chuck the ball around the field, that wasn’t the case. Drew Mestemaker threw for nearly 4,400 yards and had 463 pass attempts, but RB Caleb Hawkins had 231 carries for 1,434 yards and the team had 517 rush attempts. Davis got backup RB Ashton Gray to transfer and also WR Landon Sides, so he has skill guys who know the scheme. The ECU run game actually fell from 4.8 yards per carry to 4.1, so that has a good chance to go back up.
Who will run the show?
Well, that’s the biggest question for ECU from a personnel standpoint. Miami transfer Emory Williams and now four-time transfer Mitch Griffis, who was at Texas Tech last season, are the main options. Williams is the bigger, more athletic option, but Griffis may more closely resemble Mestemaker’s skill set, though he doesn’t have the size. Katin Houser, another portal find by Harrell, who really seems to have his finger on the pulse of free agency, was very solid last season. Whether it’s Williams or Griffis, good numbers should come again. The offensive line could be shaky at the outset, which perhaps puts Williams in the driver’s seat for the job.
Can Harrell work his magic again?
With two returning starters back on defense, Harrell and DC Josh Aldridge did a masterful job. The Pirates allowed just 20.1 PPG and just over 5.1 YPP. Statistically, everything got better. The team was better against the run, generated more sacks, and the defense had 24 takeaways leading to a +10 TO margin. It does need to be said that the Pirates allowed just 390 yards in their wins over Campbell and Coastal Carolina and 71 rushing yards on 53 carries, so their conference numbers weren’t nearly as strong as the full body of work suggests. That said, ECU still outgained American foes by 0.65 YPP, as the offense got stronger as the season went along. He’s basically starting from scratch in terms of returning starters and has a new DC this time around.
East Carolina 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 7.5 Wins
For ECU to get to 8-4 or better, they’ll really have to earn it. Opening the season with Alabama in Tuscaloosa isn’t ideal, not to mention they play three weeknight games, including two road Thursday games, and face Temple and Army with rest disadvantages, as both of those teams will be coming off of the bye. However, East Carolina also doesn’t face UTSA or Tulane, two of the four teams that beat the Pirates last season. My projection is 7.72 wins.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC OWLS
The makings of a good football team were present in Boca Raton last season. Even though Florida Atlantic finished 4-8, failing to reach six wins for the sixth straight season, you could see Zach Kittley’s plan in motion. The youngest coach in FBS, and big proponent of the Air Raid offense, had plenty of growing pains. One stat stood out well above the rest – the Owls were -21 in TO margin. Clean that up and we might have something here. It will be up to Caden Veltkamp to do that, after he threw 17 interceptions, but the burden is also shared by DC Brett Dewhurst, whose defense forced a paltry eight turnovers.
In a conference desperately lacking returning starters, Kittley has a couple handfuls of them and brought in 30 more players via the portal, including some defenders capable of creating negative plays. This will be a high-variance team again with their high volume of pass attempts and a defense asked to survive in that environment, but Kittley has been a rapid riser up the coaching ranks for a reason.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Are we in the Caden Veltkamp camp?
Veltkamp is really the only starting QB for FAU and he needs to be better. Drew Devillier transferred in from Rice and redshirt freshman Jordan Magwood threw nine passes last season. Veltkamp was asked to throw a lot and FAU did trail a lot, so the 17 interceptions may not all be on him, especially considering he had just 11 of them in three seasons at Western Kentucky. Easton Messer caught 104 balls for 1,052 yards and several others saw work in this scheme, including returnee Dominique Henry. Guys will put up numbers, but Messer is still the only true go-to guy and that could continue to hold Veltkamp back and the rest of the team by extension. Veltkamp threw seven picks over the first three games and six over the last three games, so he did show he could take care of the ball in the middle of the season. A silver lining, perhaps.
Can Kittley find some balance on offense?
The rushing numbers were downright laughable for the Owls. They averaged 105 yards on 3.5 yards per carry and even mustered just 82 yards and 2.9 yards per carry in American Conference play. This is not exactly a conference known for a lot of physical, stalwart defenses, but there were no holes on the ground whatsoever. The OL was shifting to a very pass-heavy blocking scheme, so maybe that had something to do with it. While the OL has a lot of new faces and some guys playing new positions, the running back room looks more intriguing. Kaden Shields-Dutton had 5.5 yards per carry and Kittley went the JUCO route to get Leonard Farrow, who averaged over seven yards per carry at Fairmont State. If a running game and more ball control are attainable, that will help the defense tremendously.
Will the Owls stop the run?
The FAU defensive line was objectively terrible last season. American Conference foes ran for an average of 232 yards per game and that even includes a 68-yard performance from UAB. While the offense needs work, and the offensive line is very light on experience, Kittley and his staff really hammered the defensive side of the ball in the portal. Some guys are in Year 2 of the scheme and others are newcomers to the roster, but you can tell that the DL and really the front seven in general were focal points. It is wild to think that FAU averaged a 150-yard differential in rushing yards over their eight conference games. That simply cannot happen again.
Florida Atlantic 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 5.5 Wins
The season might start rather slowly with Florida and Navy on the docket, but the three games before the bye are very, very winnable. The back half of the schedule is a bit of a challenge, but this was a 4-8 team with a -21 TO margin that definitely has more talent in Year 2 of this new system. This isn’t a super strong opinion and more of a lean, but Kittley is a sharp football mind and he’s had a lot more time to evaluate the guys that fit and don’t fit what he’s aiming to achieve. Last season was also his first as a head coach and he did double duty as the OC. Surely he learned a lot. My projection is 5.64 wins.
MEMPHIS TIGERS
Memphis went from Group of Five College Football Playoff contender to an afterthought in a hurry, as the Tigers lost to Tulane at home and then followed that up with three straight losses, including a defeat in the Gasparilla Bowl after head coach Ryan Silverfield left for Arkansas and a ton of players left the program. This is basically a brand-new roster for head coach Charles Huff, who spent one year at Southern Miss after Marshall inexplicably let him walk as the reigning Sun Belt champion HC.
This is a great spot for Huff, who has a lot of NIL money to play with and a pretty solid program that hasn’t had a losing season since 2013. A winning record in 2014 ended six straight seasons of futility and the program has been strong ever since, including four double-digit winning seasons since 2017. It may take a year with new schemes and a ton of transfers, but Huff seems to be an outstanding coach based on the returns we’ve seen thus far.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
What will this offense look like?
Huff went back to the Sun Belt for his OC, as Kevin Decker was at Old Dominion the last few years. Decker led an ODU offense that ranked in the top 20 in yards per play and averaged 32 PPG. He had a Fordham offense that averaged over 600 yards per game back in 2021. This is a guy who believes in a high-octane, explosive offense that starts with the ground game and the pass comes off of it. The Monarchs averaged 5.6 yards per carry and nearly 240 rushing yards per game. How all the transfer pieces and parts fit in will be fascinating to see. Marcus Stokes was a multi-year starter at West Florida and Air Noland was a very highly-touted recruit who never saw the field at Ohio State and transferred to South Carolina.
Who are the impact players on offense?
Whether it’s Stokes, Noland, or maybe even Huff recruit Denzel Gardner, there still aren’t any truly experienced or established skill-position guys. Dallan Hayden had over five yards per carry at Ohio State, but was ineffective at Colorado. Jaylin Carter only had 166 yards last season at Southern Miss and Manny Covey had under 300 yards in three seasons at Cincinnati. The wide receivers are all in a similar boat, as some of them have impressive yards per reception numbers, but not many receptions. This is basically a bunch of noteworthy recruits who couldn’t crack the lineup at their previous schools, so all of them have chips on their shoulders. That could make for a fun offense, especially if Decker can play with tempo.
Will the defense suffer as a result of the offense?
Huff made a really, really good DC hire in Lance Guidry, who he worked with at Marshall and has been a DC at many different places. Like the offense, virtually nobody who played for the Tigers last season is on the roster, so this unit has been revamped via the portal as well. Huff did bring several Golden Eagles with him, including J’Mond Tapp, who had 7.5 sacks, and Ian Foster and Anthony Richard, who both had 10 pass breakups. There aren’t as many noteworthy recruits on defense, so the upside of the defense might be lower than that of the offense, but the collection of Southern Miss players should help.
Memphis 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 7.5 Wins
In Huff I trust. These are two good coordinator hires and it sure feels like Huff’s done a good job of motivating players that were either discarded by their own schools or castoffs from another. The non-conference schedule is tough with UNLV and Boise State, but the conference schedule isn’t all that bad for the Tigers. They do play at Tulane, USF, and Navy, but Huff has plenty of time over the first six games prior to the visit to NOLA to get his team in shape. Huff has worked under James Franklin and Nick Saban. He knows how to identify talent. My projection is 7.38 wins.
NAVY MIDSHIPMEN
When they zig, you zag. Credit to Navy head coach Brian Newberry for bringing in OC Drew Cronic, as the wrinkles in the Middies offense have given them a new life in the American Conference. The team was 14-2 in conference play over the first two seasons in the AAC, but then it went downhill as teams adjusted. In fact, under Ken Niumatalolo, the Middies only had one other winning season in conference after that 14-2 start. Under Newberry, Navy is 18-7.
Cronic’s Wing-T, modified triple-option has given teams a lot of things to worry about when scouting. The Middles scored 17.7 PPG in 2023. In two seasons under Cronic, they’ve scored 31.3 and 31.5 PPG with 6.3 and 6.5 yards per play. However, now Blake Horvath, Alex Tecza, and all-time leading receiver Eli Heidenreich are gone. Was it Cronic or was it just a generational run of offensive leaders?
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
How can Navy replicate the wrath of Horvath?
Horvath will be talked about in the same breath as Keenan Reynolds and Malcolm Perry. Every few years, it seems like a stud QB comes around in Annapolis and Horvath will be held in that light. He threw for over 3,000 yards and ran for over 2,600 yards. Only Reynolds and Bill Byrne have thrown more passing TDs in Navy history. It should also be noted that Reynolds played four years, while Horvath played three. Braxton Woodson has some enormous shoes to fill. He’s plenty familiar with the scheme, having started games the last two seasons and being used when Horvath was banged up. In fact, Woodson had 9.4 yards per carry on his 44 attempts last season. But, Horvath (58.8%) only trailed Roger Staubach in completion percentage with at least 120 pass attempts. Woodson is not that kind of thrower with a 46.3% completion rate.
What about the other losses?
Tecza and Heidenreich, who was drafted in the seventh round by the Steelers, are monumental losses of production as well. Tecza ran for 902 yards on 5.7 yards per carry with 10 rushing TD last season and ended his Navy career 12th in rushing yards with 2,236. Tecza is seventh all-time among running backs in rushing yards. Heidenreich had over 500 yards on the ground and 941 yards on 51 catches. He passed Rob Taylor for the program’s lead in receiving yards and finished his career fifth in scrimmage yards. Oh, and fourth-leading rusher and second-leading receiver Brandon Chatman also exhausted his eligibility. This scheme creates productive players, but Navy is missing 93.5% of their passing yards, over 83% of their rushing yards, and over 84% of their receiving yards from last season.
What does that mean for the defense?
That is the million-dollar question here. Perhaps sensing the urgency, Newberry is going back to his roots to serve as his own defensive play-caller, even though he demoted P.J. Volker back to safeties coach and promoted Eric Lewis to DC. The losses are nowhere near as heavy on this side, as five of the top seven tacklers are back, but the 5.9 YPP allowed by the Middies last season was the most they’ve surrendered since 2021, as were the 25 PPG. Navy’s defensive numbers need to be put in the proper context because of their offensive scheme, which limits possessions. With a decline in offensive production expected, the defense could feel the brunt.
Navy 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 7.5 Wins
The conference schedule is not too demanding for Navy and they should be better than both service academies again. They do play at UTSA and at what should be an improved FAU team. Notre Dame is on the slate, as well as a home game against Memphis, but no Tulane or East Carolina. Both North Texas and Notre Dame are off of byes when they face Navy. With two years worth of film on the Cronic offense and some massive personnel losses, heavy regression is possible. My projection, though, is for 7.56 wins.
NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN
The motto for North Texas football this season might be, “Don’t cry because it’s over; smile because it happened”. Eric Morris is now at Oklahoma State after leading the Mean Green to probably the best season in program history. UNT went 12-2, scoring over 45 PPG, and won a bowl game for the first time since 2013. It will be up to Neal Brown to keep the program on the map, as Morris and pretty much every player of consequence has left Denton. Things like this are possible in the transfer portal era, but this may very well be the most stripped-down program we’ve ever seen.
The top returning running back had 95 yards on 21 carries. The top returning pass-catcher had seven grabs for 80 yards. The top returning tackler had 32 stops and 1.5 sacks. The top returning DB had four pass breakups. Even the kicker and the punter are gone. With new schemes and new coordinators, having some leftover players may not have really made that big of a difference anyway, but this team is guys who played sparingly last season and a collection of transfers from every corner of the country.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Who are these f*#%ing guys?
Being a Clevelander, of course one of my favorite movies is Major League and the clip of the construction worker looking at the roster in the newspaper and asking, “Who are these effing guys?!” after the conniving owner cleared out the roster is among the most quotable lines. I will say, while all of these guys are new to Denton, there are a few notable names. Tayven Jackson originally went to Tennessee and got some starts for Indiana and also UCF, so he’s the clubhouse leader to be the QB. Jahiem White had 6.5 yards per carry at West Virginia, as he rejoined Brown in the Lone Star State. Aaron Alexander racked up 91 tackles last season at Arkansas State. But, other than those few guys, most of these guys simply didn’t latch on at their previous schools.
Is this a better fit for Neal Brown?
Brown is going to be his own OC, which may work out great or may not work out at all. It was his work as an OC at Troy, Texas Tech, and Kentucky that got him his first head coaching job. Troy didn’t play with a ton of tempo or light up the scoreboard while he was there, but did score 30+ PPG in each of his last three seasons. West Virginia only averaged 30+ PPG in two of his six seasons. Not only are expectations exceedingly low with how bare the cupboard is, but the North Texas athletic department was willing to go high-octane, up-tempo, run-and-shoot style with Morris and his assistants. He might be able to reinvent himself, or at least go back to his Texas Tech days.
What is the state of the North Texas program?
Sometimes things from above can trickle down to the team and create a difficult situation. Even last season, there wasn’t a ton of investment in the program. UNT got very fortunate that Mestemaker, who had barely played QB in high school, was a stud. RB Caleb Hawkins had one Division I offer and it was North Texas. He had 25 rushing TDs and over 1,400 yards. Skyler Cassity was a stellar DC hire by Morris, but who would have thought it would lead to the best defense the program has seen in forever? Will the students show up to support a team that has been stripped to the studs? Will the athletic department invest more in the roster?
North Texas 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 5.5 Wins
UNT opens at Indiana and then hosts UNLV before visiting Texas State to open the season. They’ll go to Navy, UTSA, and Tulane, so the road games are very difficult. The home games are all attainable, but UNT might lose every road game, leaving no margin for error at home. While Jackson is stepping down in class with his first non-Power Four team, he hasn’t taken great care of the football. To call it a rebuilding year in Denton is an understatement. My projection is 5.81 wins, but I still like the Under.
RICE OWLS
Last season was a transitional one for Rice, as Scott Abell embraced one of the most challenging and difficult jobs in FBS after making the leap from FCS Davidson. Rice has an enrollment under 4,000, strict academic requirements, and hasn’t had a winning season since 2014. You would think that being in Houston with all of the Texas high school football talent, it would be easier to put together a competent roster, even with the low acceptance rate, but it hasn’t been.
Even last season, Rice was granted a bowl game because others backed out and the school’s Academic Progress Rate (APR) scores were worthy of an opportunity, but the team only had a 5-7 regular season. They only scored 19.1 PPG and dropped by nearly a full yard per play on offense, while giving up 1.3 more YPP on defense. It’s a tough gig and it looks like another tough year, but Abell seems up for the challenge and brought in a decent number of P4 transfers.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Can the offense improve in a hurry under Jacurri?
The Jacurri in question is Jacurri Brown, who spent two years at Miami and two years at UCF, but he’s only thrown 148 passes with more interceptions (9) than touchdowns (6). What Brown has done, though, is effectively run the football. He has 137 carries for 821 yards, so better than six yards per carry. At Davidson back in 2024, Wildcats QBs only had 152 pass attempts in 11 games, as the team ran the ball 640 times for 3,720 yards, with QB Andrew Frazier third in rush attempts and rush yards. Quinton Jackson was the best player on offense for Rice last season with 889 yards and 4.9 yards per carry. Last season, the Owls had 647 rush attempts against 224 pass attempts. I would expect an even starker split this season.
Can the option offense even be successful?
Not all options are created equal, as Navy has recently modified theirs and Army just runs theirs like a well-oiled machine, but Rice is attempting to do their version of an option in a conference that already has two service academies. It makes scheming a lot easier for the opposing defense to see a lot of similar core concepts and blocking schemes. Rice didn’t face Army last season, but will this season. However, they did face Navy and only had 3.1 yards per carry. Memphis held them to 2.4 YPC, while UTSA allowed 3.8, UAB allowed 3.4, and USF allowed 3.8. Brown could be a difference-maker as a better runner than Chase Jenkins, but Rice just might not be in the best conference for this.
Is everything ‘Kay on defense?
‘Kay as in “okay” under DC Jon Kay, who was a holdover from the previous regime. It is a bit surprising that a head coach would simply promote the previous head coach’s linebackers coach to DC and it didn’t really seem to work out well last season. The Owls allowed 6.3 YPP and nearly 33 PPG. It was the worst defensive effort for the team since 2022. And, even with a run-heavy approach, the team still finished -4 in turnover margin with just seven takeaways. Rice was tied for ninth in the nation in turnovers lost and still finished with a negative TO margin. The top seven tacklers from last season are gone, but starting from scratch probably isn’t a bad thing with this defense.
Rice 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 3.5 Wins
Rice got a pretty favorable schedule last season, but that is not the case this season. Outside of Navy, they face all of the teams that project to be average or better and they do not face Charlotte or UAB, their only two conference wins last season. Notre Dame is on the schedule this season, along with a trip to Fresno State. If Rice is 3-8 going into the final game, which is plausible, that’s against Army, who is a terrible matchup for a less-accomplished option team. My projection is 3.72 wins.
SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS
USF wound up being a good stop for a promising, up-and-coming, offensive mind with his first head coaching job in Alex Golesh. Golesh has now leveled up to Auburn after posting a trio of winning seasons in Tampa. Now it’s Brian Hartline’s turn, as the world’s best wide receiver recruiter has left Ohio State to put his stamp on his own program. Hartline hasn’t coached anywhere other than Columbus in his collegiate career, so we’ll see how it goes, but his first objective will be to try and keep up the offensive standards set by Golesh.
Five teams averaged 40+ PPG last season and the Bulls were one of them. In American Conference play, the Bulls averaged 49 PPG. That’s a high bar to live up to, but what really established the ceiling for USF was that the defense improved at a similar pace to the offense. With basically a brand-new roster and his first try as a head coach, Hartline has his work cut out for him this season.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Hype or hope?
Not all highly-touted recruits make it. The transfer portal gives players with that kind of pedigree the chance to go to a G6 program and attempt to get back on the radar. At USF, most of those players are quarterbacks, as Hartline and OC Tim Beck got Michael Van Buren by way of Mississippi State and LSU and Luke Kromenhoek by way of Florida State and Mississippi State. MVB did have some success at those two stops, including an 8/2 TD/INT ratio at LSU last season with four starts and some relief efforts. There are so many unproven players on this side of the ball and it’s fair to wonder if Hartline is a program-builder or was just able to thrive with the foundation already set at Ohio State.
What the Beck?
You can understand why Hartline turned to Tim Beck as the OC, as the 60-year-old has been coaching since the late ‘80s. It took him 35 years to get his first head coaching gig and it didn’t go particularly well at Coastal Carolina with a 20-18 record. So, he’s an OC again and I find it underwhelming, personally. Most of the guys acquired via free agency didn’t play very much at their previous schools, but 247Sports graded USF’s portal haul the best in the conference and 58th nationally with 44 total commits. That’s a lot of scouting and a lot of new faces.
Could the defense outpace the offense in 2026?
While the hiring of Beck is pretty bland in my eyes, the hiring of Josh Aldridge as DC is not. Aldridge has been working at conference rival East Carolina under head coach Blake Harrell, who has proven to be an outstanding defensive mind and a pretty darn good HC. Stopping the run is the key to success in this conference. Most teams run the ball well or have run-heavy schemes. Aldridge’s ECU unit allowed just 3.6 yards per carry. Everybody seems to allow passing yards and 60+% completion percentages, but the teams that stop the run position themselves for success. That was true of USF last season with just 3.7 YPC. This may not be a polished defense, but it is a big front seven.
South Florida 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 8.5 Wins
With over 4,000 yards and 42 touchdowns from Byrum Brown, USF went 9-3 in the regular season last year. While the non-conference slate is substantially easier this time around, the Bulls play Memphis and UTSA on short weeks, with Memphis coming off of the bye for that game. From a spread standpoint, USF could be favored in 10 or 11 games, but there’s a reason why the vig is slanting towards the Under and why a lot of questions without answers have the market down on this program this season. My projection is 8.56 wins.
TEMPLE OWLS
All three Owls in the American Conference got new coaches last season. Rice and FAU seemed to make some progress towards the future, but Temple may have done the best in the present. KC Keeler’s team fell painfully short of a bowl game, as they were 5-3 with four shots to get it done for the first time since 2019, but lost to East Carolina, Army, Tulane, and North Texas to miss out. In fairness, it was when the schedule really ramped up.
In a lot of ways, Temple’s season worked out the way it should have. They were favored four times and won all four of those, plus a home upset of UTSA. They lost to Army and Navy by one point in each of those games. With Keeler and former Montana State OC Tyler Walker, the offense improved by more than a touchdown per game. Unfortunately, even with a +11 TO margin, Temple couldn’t pull off enough upsets to end the bowl drought. Without their QBs from last season, is a regression to the mean in play?
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Who will lead Temple in 2026?
Evan Simon was a calming presence and a productive one for Temple, as he posted a 25/2 TD/INT ratio, leading the team to its first positive TO margin in quite some time. Before Keeler took over, Temple was -10, -20, and -11 in TO margin under Stan Drayton. Simon’s safe, reliable throws didn’t produce a ton of yardage, and he only had 19 TD passes after throwing six in the first game against UMass, but he protected the ball and gave the undermanned defense a better chance than his predecessors. With Simon and backup Gevani McCoy gone, there is virtually no experience on the roster, with Penn State’s Jaxon Smolik, who played in four games over three years at Penn State, and Ajani Sheppard, who played five games at Rutgers and zero last season at Washington State, as the primary QB options. It looks like a huge downturn is coming.
Where will the negative plays come from?
Temple only had 16 sacks last season and still allowed over six yards per play. While the defense shaved off nearly six PPG, it was really all about the turnover margin, as most of the per-play and rate stats weren’t really that much better under DC Brian Smith. The Owls had one of the worst red-zone defenses in the nation, were below the national average in third-down defense, and allowed 30 plays of 30+ yards. There are more returnees on offense than defense, so Smith has a lot of work to do. While three of the top four tacklers are back, the team’s leaders in pass breakups and sacks are not among them.
Will the real Temple Owls please stand up?
Temple finished the season -624 in yards, but they had some wild swings. The Owls outgained UMass by 165 yards, Howard by 439, and Navy by 134. On the flip side, they were outgained by 411 yards by Oklahoma, 140 by Georgia Tech, 381 by East Carolina, 202 by Tulane, and 289 by North Texas. In other words, over their last four games, even outgaining Army, they were -854 yards (while being +1 in TO margin!). That speaks to a major depth issue late in the season, something that Keeler and his staff have possibly addressed. The top of the American doesn’t seem as strong this season, but the conference as a whole seems better than it was last year, so Temple may have closer games to navigate.
Temple 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 5.5 Wins
Keeler certainly has the chance to get his team to a bowl game for the first time in the 2020s, but where will the wins come from? Except for Penn State, all of the home games on the schedule are extremely winnable, especially Rhode Island, UConn, Charlotte, UAB, and Rice. If Temple does what they did last year and wins when they’re supposed to win, that’s five and they’d only need one more to go Over the total. Only playing five road games is a plus, especially with no long travel. However, Keeler couldn’t get to six wins with a +11 TO margin last season and this year’s group looks worse at the most important position. My projection is 5.33 wins.
TULANE GREEN WAVE
Who knows what would have happened for Tulane last season if Jake Retzlaff hadn’t violated the Honor Code at BYU. The Green Wave were going to be a good team, but perhaps it was Retzlaff who elevated them into a great team, one that represented the Group of Five in the College Football Playoff. It didn’t go well for them when they got there, as an Ole Miss team that beat them 45-10 in the regular season beat them 41-10 in the CFP, but it was a good reward at the end of Jon Sumrall’s short tenure.
Sumrall inherited a pretty strong foundation and brought over some of his talent from Troy, a luxury that Will Hall may not have. While there are a handful of holdovers, a lot of last season’s production is gone and it doesn’t look like Darian Mensah, Retzlaff, or all-time passing leader Michael Pratt are walking through that door. The schedule is pretty soft and the talent pipeline is still fairly strong, but this has all the makings of a transitional year for Tulane.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Will Hall experience the regression Sumrall did not?
Tulane’s 11-3 record certainly stands out, but let’s look deeper, shall we? The Green Wave only outscored opponents 27.7-23.9 and only outgained them by a half-yard per play, with that discrepancy largely coming from a +24 sack differential. Tulane won four games in which they were outgained and five games by one score. Some of that may have been Sumrall and his late-game coaching in close contests. Some of that may have been luck. Some of that may have been Retzlaff, who led the team in rushing and had 16 rushing scores. But, it sure feels like it could all come crashing down on Hall, who was an awful head coach at Southern Miss and doesn’t have nearly the offensive upside of last year’s squad.
Who are the impact players on offense?
The fact that Retzlaff was available was truly a gift for Tulane because they were not set up well at the running back position with Makhi Hughes’ transfer. Jamauri McClure had 6.5 yards per carry on just 83 attempts and Javin Gordon only had 4.0 YPC on 128 attempts. Shazz Preston was the leading receiver by 200 yards and he’s gone, leaving behind second-leading WR Anthony Brown-Stevenson, who only had two fewer catches than Preston. Zeon Chriss-Gremillion has played like 12 years of college football and the only notable thing is that he’s got a hyphenated last name now. Kadin Semonza was there last year, but redshirted and didn’t play at all after starting for Ball State. So the answer to that question is that we don’t know.
Is the defense going to bail out the offense?
Tulane’s portal class ranks seventh in the 14-team American Conference, so that’s not terribly impressive given that they’ve had three seasons of 11+ wins and another 9-5 campaign over the last four years. Promoting Tayler Polk to full-fledged DC as opposed to co-DC may have helped keep leading tacklers Jack Tchienchou and Chris Rodgers around. That said, this was a defense that struggled against the pass last season, giving up 262 yards per game and a 67.6% completion rate. Most of the 25 takeaways from last season are gone. Concerns run really deep on both sides of the ball.
Tulane 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 7.5 Wins
And yet, the schedule should help them out in a big way. The Green Wave are likely to split their non-conference games against Duke, South Alabama, Kansas State, and Southern Miss. They have a bye prior to playing Army’s triple-option. They don’t play Navy or East Carolina and get Memphis and UTSA at home in consecutive weeks. Maybe Hall, who has had two different stints at Tulane and had lots of success at West Alabama and West Georgia as the HC, deserves a little more benefit of the doubt than I’ve given him credit for since his time at Southern Miss was messy and included a conference change. My projection is 7.56 wins.
TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE
As expected, the Golden Hurricane looked better, but it didn’t translate into that much better of a record. Tulsa went 4-8, a modest one-game improvement over the previous season, but Tre Lamb’s team is moving in the right direction. This was arguably the worst defense in the nation in 2024 with 42.5 PPG and 7.1 YPP allowed. The secondary got torched left and right, as opponents averaged well over 300 passing yards per game. While Lamb’s team didn’t make many strides on offense, they gave up nearly 14 fewer points per game and 1.5 fewer yards per play, including more than a 100-yard improvement in terms of passing yards against.
Now we see if Lamb and new OC Kevin Barbay can inject some life into that side of the ball. Like most G6 teams, a lot of players moved on, but QB Baylor Hayes was not one of them and that could make a major difference. He’ll have a new group of skill players, but the 36-year-old Lamb was a QB at Tennessee Tech and then the OC there as a rapid riser in the coaching ranks.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Will Hayes have a sophomore slump?
Hayes didn’t put up eye-popping numbers, but did help lead the offense to 424 yards in the upset win over Oklahoma State that really opened some eyes about the direction of this program. Unfortunately, Tulsa followed that up with three straight blowout losses to conference top dogs, but they were competitive for the most part from that point forward against comparable or lesser foes. Hayes will be without 1,000-yard rusher Dominic Richardson and his top three pass-catchers, but now that the program has shown a bit more stability, transfers are more willing to come in. Expect Tulsa to run the rock a lot, with some more designed runs for Hayes, but also with productive Auburn and Old Dominion transfers at RB.
What will be Tulsa’s biggest area of improvement?
The offensive line is what looks like the group to push this team forward. Tulsa should get some sort of steak or fast food restaurant NIL deal because they have some beef on the offensive line. Lamb brought in transfers from Texas A&M and Ole Miss last season and now added South Alabama’s starting center in Malachi Preciado, who was originally at Purdue. All of the starters and the guys on the two-deep are at or above three bills on the scales and I think that’s exactly what he wants. Tulsa had nearly 500 rush attempts last season and I’d expect an even higher amount this season.
Can the Golden Hurricane turn Tulsa into “TOlsa”?
While the defense improved in several key areas, taking the football away from the other team was not one of them. Tulsa’s defense mustered just 11 takeaways last season, leading to a -9 TO margin. It has been a long time since this program was on the positive side of the TO battle, but this might be the year. As long as they don’t fumble the ball with a run-first offense, more turnovers on defense should help the cause. While the team’s top two tacklers are gone, the team’s top defensive backs have returned and Year 2 of DC Josh Reardon’s scheme not only features players who know it, but also transfers who are likely better fits.
Tulsa 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 5.5 Wins
I’ll give Lamb and his staff the benefit of the doubt here, in spite of a challenging schedule. While Tulsa avoids East Carolina and Memphis, road games at Navy, Tulane, and UTSA make for a very tough conference schedule. That said, all four American home games are very winnable, along with East Texas A&M. If the Golden Hurricane can beat Sam Houston State on the road in Week 2, this one should get there and the team should go bowling for the first time since 2021. My projection is 5.43 wins.
UAB BLAZERS
At the end of the 2022 season, players rallied in support of interim head coach Bryant Vincent, who had served as the OC under predecessor Bill Clark before he stepped aside to focus on his health. The athletic department had other ideas and hired Trent Dilfer, who went just 9-21 over two-and-a-half seasons. Alex Mortensen, son of late ESPN analyst Chris, led an upset win over Memphis in his first game, but then the Blazers lost the next three games before finishing the season with a win over Tulsa.
Apparently that was enough for the penny-pinching AD to keep Mortensen around, as he’ll get his first crack without the interim tag. Last season was disastrous for the Blazers, including a pregame stabbing incident in the locker room prior to the loss against USF, so it’s probably unfair to judge Mortensen based on his six-game sample. Virtually everybody on defense is gone and most of the offense, a development that was in motion before the regular season even ended last year.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
How does the rebuild look?
Veteran DC Todd Grantham is a nice start, as he’s coached for some premier college teams and was also an NFL DC. Given that UAB returns one guy with more than 20 tackles, Grantham truly has as blank a slate as you can get. Portal pickups from every corner of the country make up that unit, along with most of the offense, though QB Ryder Burton, who came to UAB by way of BYU and West Virginia, is at least a starting point. A lot of the guys on offense are multi-time transfers that haven’t latched on anywhere, including the patchwork offensive line. Some impact guys will emerge on both sides of the ball, but nobody on the two-deep is “proven”.
Should Mortensen call his own offense?
Mortensen was the OC when he got promoted and kept running the offense when he took over as the interim head coach. He’s going to keep doing that this season, even though he’s overseeing the entire program now. At least the presence of somebody like Grantham helps in the sense that he’s been around forever and doesn’t need anybody looking over his shoulder. Not much seemed to change for the offense late in the season besides a higher frequency of running the football, even in blowout losses to UConn, North Texas, and South Florida. That means Georgia transfer Rod Robinson and ULM transfer Bam McReynolds will be focal points in the gameplan.
Is Grantham just what the Blazers defense needs?
Steve Russ and Sione Ta’ufo’ou were the two DCs during the Dilfer era, as Ta’ufo’ou went back to Cal prior to last season and Russ was brought over from Air Force. Russ is a longtime linebackers coach and had some seasons as the DC in Colorado Springs, but plotting a defensive course on a triple-option team is far different than what he experienced in Birmingham. Not surprisingly, UAB was better against the run on his watch, but also gave up a lot more explosive pass plays. Grantham has been a lot of places and, while his scheme might be kind of complex, he’s certainly the best DC that the Blazers have had in a long time. Grantham was making $1.3 million last season at Oklahoma State, but was fired just four games into the season. Mortensen is only making $1 million, so this is likely a large investment to bring in Grantham and that says something.
UAB 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 3.5 Wins
Even though UAB got to four wins last season in the midst of all sorts of turmoil, the schedule is pretty rough. The game against ULM should be a win, but as the second game of the season with a ton of new players and schemes, that could be a high-variance one both ways. It seems like UAB has to get that one because Samford and maybe Charlotte look like the other best chances, leaving the need for at least one upset somewhere along the line. Because I expect UAB’s pass game to become less important, their game state worries me because they project to trail a lot. My projection is 3.63 wins.
UTSA ROADRUNNERS
If not now, when? That is the main question for UTSA this season, as they are staring an 11-1 season in the face and a chance to be the G6 representative in the College Football Playoff. This season, you don’t have to be a conference champion, you just have to be the highest-ranked team in the CFP rankings, though winning your conference probably helps. If UTSA were to upset Texas, things would get really interesting. For now, they just have to avoid any slip-ups on paper, as they should be favored in nine or 10 games.
This is one of the most experienced offenses in the American Conference and Rick Bowie is a very intriguing fit as the new OC. The defense does have to get better for UTSA and it’s fair to wonder if Jess Loepp, who has been the DC since 2020, makes it through the season. Regardless, this is a team that should come into 2026 with enormous expectations and the chance to actually reach them.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Can the pass rush bounce back?
Per 247Sports, UTSA brought in 21 transfers. Twelve of them are on the defensive side. Out of the 12 teams in the American with the transfer portal available to them, 247 ranks their class 11th, so we’ll see if the right pieces and parts were purchased in free agency. One notable thing about the transfer class is that Jeff Traylor and the defensive staff focused on pass rushers. UTSA had 46 sacks in 2023 and 42 sacks in 2024. They had just 24 sacks last season. G6 players who can get to the quarterback are often the most sought-after by bigger schools with bigger NIL budgets. For example, Jimmori Robinson had 10.5 sacks in 2024 and played at West Virginia last season. Trey Moore, who had 14 sacks in 2023, finished his collegiate career at Texas. The goal is to rotate a lot of d-linemen and get fresh pass rushers out there. It sure seems like the depth is a lot stronger this year.
Will Owen McCown be the best QB in the conference?
For UTSA to get where they want to go, it is up to McCown, the program’s third-leading passer. He’ll pass Eric Soza for second in Week 1 against UTRGV, but he won’t make it to Frank Harris, whose throne he took over full-time with the 2024 season. McCown fell just shy of 3,000 passing yards last season, but did have 30 TD passes. His top WR, Devin McCuin, was picked up by Ohio State (and they know a thing or two about wide receivers), but he has some rapport with David Amador and AJ Wilson, plus there are others who have been on the roster for a while. As mentioned, Bowie is an interesting hire as OC. He was at Western Kentucky last season after serving in the same role at Abilene Christian in 2024 and at Valdosta State in 2022-23. He’s led some prolific passing offenses and should be able to unlock more from McCown.
Can Traylor avoid the devastating loss?
UTSA won the Conference USA title in 2021 and 2022, but since joining the American, he’s had some forgettable conference games. Last season, UTSA lost to Temple and Army as a favorite and also lost as a favorite to Texas State in non-conference play. In 2024, the Roadrunners lost to Rice and Tulsa in favorite roles. To this point, the Roadrunners haven’t even played in the conference title game. That should change with this year’s schedule, but Traylor also needs to take care of his affairs when he’s expected to, something that he’s struggled to do previously.
UTSA 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 7.5 Wins
The Roadrunners have lost to Army in all three seasons with the AAC/American, but avoid them this season. That said, they do get Navy. But, the Middies come to San Antonio, along with USF and Tulsa, who I think will be much improved this season. The toughest conference test is a trip to Tulane in late October. A good chunk of money was earmarked to improve this roster for 2026 and it should help. Again, Traylor has to avoid the bad losses, but this may very well be the best team in the conference. My projection is 7.77 wins.
