Betting Splits and CFB Sharp Money Picks for Friday September 22

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

 

You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s College Football slate…

 

7 p.m. ET: Wisconsin (-6, 53.5) at Purdue

Wisconsin (2-1) is coming off a 35-14 win over Georgia Southern, covering as 20.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Purdue (1-2) just fell to Syracuse 35-20, failing to cover as 1.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Wisconsin listed as a 7-point road favorite. The public expects an easy Wisconsin win and cover. However, despite receiving 66% of bets, we’ve seen Wisconsin fall from -7 to -6. Some shops are even inching down to -5.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Purdue, with pros grabbing the points with the home dog. Purdue is only receiving 34% of bets but 51% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Purdue has value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry spot leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points, similar to divisional dogs in the NFL. Friday night home dogs are 102-82 ATS (55%) since 2015. Pros have also leaned under, dropping the total from 54.5 to 53.5. 

 

10:30 p.m. ET: Boise State (-6.5, 46) at San Diego State 

Boise State (1-2) dropped its first two games before rebounding with a 42-18 over North Dakota last week, easily covering as 13.5-point home favorites. Conversely, San Diego State (2-2) won their first two games but have since dropped two straight, losing to Oregon State 26-9 last week but covering as 24.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Boise State listed as a 7-point road favorite. The public is slightly leaning Boise State with 53% of bets laying the points. In a vacuum, the line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are relatively split down the middle. However, we’ve seen this line fall from Boise State -7 to -6.5, indicating smart money grabbing the points with home dog San Diego State. The Aztecs are receiving 47% of bets but 53% of money, a slight sharp bet discrepancy. San Diego State also has value as a conference dog and a Friday night dog (55% ATS since 2015). Currently 73% of bets are taking the over 46 yet the line hasn’t budged at all. In fact, some shops have dipped to 45.5. This indicates wiseguy under money banking on a lower scoring game. The under is receiving 27% of bets but 51% of money, a sharp bet split.