T Shoe Index Résumé Rankings Week 9
We’re just over a week away from the inaugural College Football Playoff rankings being released. I constantly harp on the fact that the AP and Coaches’ polls are useless anyway, but especially once the CFP rankings get released, the aforementioned human polls are deemed completely irrelevant. Obviously, my first and foremost priority is to formulate predictive power ratings; the second priority is to take those power ratings and determine which teams have produced the best résumé to date, based on the strength of schedule according to those power ratings. Last week, Washington was the No. 1 team in my résumé rankings after a win against Oregon, but this week, the Huskies dropped to No. 4 and there’s a new leader in the clubhouse – and it might not be who you think.
Florida State – The New No. 1
The new No. 1 in the T Shoe Index résumé rankings is the Florida State Seminoles, who barely edged out the Buckeyes for the top spot. Florida State has played an average opponent power rating of 3.9, good for fifth in the country. After beating Duke by 18 – albeit trailing until Duke QB Riley Leonard went down with his lingering ankle injury – the Seminoles now have a 72% chance to go undefeated, according to updated TSI projections. The ‘Noles are a real (likely?) playoff contender.
Ohio State – The New No. 2
Another contender on the rise is the Ohio State Buckeyes, who took care of business again Penn State at home in week 8, in a game the Buckeyes never trailed. Now sitting at No. 2 in the résumé rankings and No. 3 in my power ratings, the Buckeyes have one stiff test looming in Ann Arbor in the regular season finale. Will the offense – Marvin Harrison Jr. notwithstanding – establish a rhythm over the next month and get healthy enough to test the No. 1 power rated team in the country, Michigan?
If we’ve learned anything about the CFP committee over the years, it’s that they value quality wins above pretty much all else, but we know for a fact they look at advanced stats (maybe even power ratings?) that indicate which teams are the strongest, maybe regardless of the “eye test”. Teams like Michigan may not have a marquee win to this point, but the No. 1 power rated Wolverines are demolishing everyone in their path, and I certainly won’t be surprised to see them in the top 4 when the rankings drop, despite sitting at No. 5 in my résumé rankings.
Now in the AP top 25, James Madison is getting some national respect; however, I think they’re being *undervalued* currently. I’ve got them No. 29 in my power ratings, but No. 10 (!!) based on their résumé. The Dukes’ average opponent power rating is -4.6; to put into perspective, AP No. 1 Georgia has played an average opponent power rating of -6.9, and they have the same record. You tell me which is more impressive if you took the names off the jerseys.
To learn more about who I am or what my T Shoe Index is, be sure to read my introduction on VSiN.com and check out my free CFB guide with ratings, projections and win probabilities for every single game this season and follow me on X, @TShoeIndex.
See below for my top 40 résumé rankings: