College Football

College football best bets for Week 6 from Matt Youmans

October 6, 2023

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College football best bets for Week 6

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It’s obvious Georgia has the longest active winning streak in college football. The nation’s top-ranked team has won 22 in a row. So which team is second on the list?

The answer is not so obvious. The Bulldogs of Fresno State have won 14 straight, and coach Jeff Tedford’s well-traveled team looks to extend the streak Saturday at Wyoming. Fresno State has two road victories over Power Five conference opponents this season, beating Purdue in a shootout (39-35) and Arizona State in a shutout (29-0).

Tedford’s offense is led by Mikey Keene, a transfer from Central Florida. Keene has completed 69% of his passes with 14 touchdowns. What’s most impressive is Fresno’s offense has put together a string of 40 consecutive drives without a three-and-out.

The Bulldogs are tough on the defensive side too, forcing three-and-outs on 45% of drives to rank in the nation’s top 10 in that category. The Cowboys’ one-dimensional, run-heavy offense will have problems sustaining drives in this matchup.

Wyoming has had problems with Fresno two years in a row, losing 30-0 last year and 17-0 in 2021. The Cowboys are solid on defense and always dangerous on their home field at altitude, upsetting Texas Tech in two overtimes in the season opener. But the road-tested Bulldogs have a more versatile offense and are on a mission to stay undefeated as they chase a big-time bowl.

Pick: Fresno State -6

The plays in this column went 2-3 last week. Here are six more shots for Week 6 (home team in CAPS):

Texas (-5) over Oklahoma

While the revenge factor is often overhyped by handicappers, it does mean something in this rivalry game in Dallas. The Longhorns humiliated the Sooners 49-0 in a Red River bloodbath a year ago, when Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel missed the game with an injury. Gabriel is playing at a high level, completing 75.2% of his passes with 15 touchdowns and two interceptions. He should help push this score Over the total of 60.5, and I made a half-unit play on the total. The deciding factors are likely to be Texas’ strength on the offensive and defensive lines and its superior defense in general. The Longhorns proved their worth in a win at Alabama, a game in which quarterback Quinn Ewers had an answer each time the Tide rallied. (Play to -6 and 61)

IOWA (-2) over Purdue

Deacon Hill takes over as the Hawkeyes’ quarterback after Cade McNamara’s season-ending injury, and Hill completed only 11 of 27 passes last week against Michigan State. The Iowa offense totaled 222 yards and needed a punt-return touchdown to trigger the comeback win over the Spartans. The Boilermakers have the better quarterback in Hudson Card, a Texas transfer, and their offense just erupted for 44 points in a victory over Illinois. However, the Hawkeyes are far stronger defensively and simply know how to win ugly games. This one will be ugly, so I also made a half-unit play Under the total of 39. (Play to -2.5 and 38)

Arizona (+22) over USC

The Wildcats were full of fight last week, taking Washington to the wire in a 31-24 loss, and they stayed in it with backup quarterback Noah Fifita throwing for 232 yards and three touchdowns in his first career start. Arizona could get starter Jayden de Laura back from injury. Either way, this shapes up as a possible letdown and lookahead spot for the Trojans, who are off a win at Colorado and have a trip to Notre Dame on deck. As expected, USC quarterback Caleb Williams has been incredible, with 74.5% completions and 21 touchdown passes with one pick. If the Trojans are clicking and focused, this could be a blowout. Still, with a bigger game next week, Trojans coach Lincoln Riley should let off the gas and leave the back door open. (Play to +21.5)

UCLA (-3) over Washington State

It’s not easy to bet against the Cougars and red-hot quarterback Cameron Ward, who has completed 74.6% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and no interceptions. Ward was outstanding in victories over Colorado State, Oregon State and Wisconsin. However, Washington State has been unable to establish a running attack, and the UCLA defense ranks in the nation’s top 15 in scoring (11.0 ppg) and rushing (77.8 ypg). Bruins freshman quarterback Dante Moore had a rough day in a loss at Utah, but he’ll learn from that and be more comfortable on his home field. Washington State was +3 at home to Oregon State and is getting the same number in Pasadena? The line value is with the home favorite. (Must get -3)

CALIFORNIA (+9) over Oregon State

Aside from a lopsided loss at Washington, the Golden Bears have been in every game and should stay in this one. Beavers quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei has been impressive after transferring from Clemson, but he’s unreliable as a big road favorite. Cal coach Justin Wilcox is at his best in this role and is 10-1 ATS as a home ‘dog of four or more points. The Bears (3-2) will give their best effort here, because the odds will be stacked higher against them in the following three games — at Utah, USC, at Oregon. (Play to +8)

MINNESOTA (+18.5) over Michigan

The Wolverines finally covered a big number — and crushed my underdog play at +18 — in a 45-7 laugher at Nebraska last week. I’ll try the big ‘dog again, especially with more than 90% of the money wagered being on Michigan. Unlike the Cornhuskers, the Golden Gophers are capable of moving the ball on the ground and on the arm of quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis. Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck will have his team hyped for this Little Brown Jug battle. (Play to +17, but look for +20)