College Football Picks:

The weeks are peeling off of the calendar rather quickly, as we’re now in Week 5 of the college football season. The biggest game of the season takes place on Saturday with Georgia vs. Alabama and the NIL saga between UNLV and Matthew Sluka is taking all the headlines. There hasn’t been a bigger example of what college football is in present day than that.

I’m not interested in wagering on Georgia/Alabama or Fresno State/UNLV, so let’s move on from those topics and look at some Week 5 picks.

 

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Here are my Week 5 College Football Picks:

Navy Midshipmen (-3.5, 57.5) at UAB Blazers

Noon ET (ESPN2)

It takes a lot for me to like an Over with an option team, but we’ve got a lot here. Navy’s new-look offense with Drew Cronic is thriving. For a team that has run the ball 77.3% of the time, sitting in the top 10 in yards per play is mind-boggling. The Middies just racked up 8.6 yards per play against Memphis and the Tigers have the benefit of at least seeing the option looks on a pretty regular basis.

UAB has not had that luxury up until last season, when a bad Navy offense won 31-6. This is a way more explosive offense with Blake Horvath at the helm. UAB ranks 37th in yards per play allowed, but 102nd in yards per carry surrendered. The Blazers have given up 4.66 yards per pop and gave up seven yards per tote against Arkansas a couple of weeks ago.

They’re coming off of a well-timed bye to face Cronic’s modified option attack, but I don’t really think that matters. I like the Over in this game at 57.5, but I’ve gravitated more towards backing Navy laying the points. If this game is going to go Over, it will likely be because of Navy’s offense more than UAB’s and if that’s the case, why not just lay the 3.5?

Pick: Navy -3.5

Louisiana Monroe Warhawks at Troy Trojans (-7, 45.5)

7 p.m. ET (ESPN+)


It was definitely better to get in on this game north of a touchdown, as I mentioned on Sunday in my College Football Power Ratings article, but I still think it’s playable. The Warhawks came off the bye and got throttled by Texas, but that was just a case of lambs being led to the slaughter. I don’t put any stock in what happened there.

But, what I do believe is that ULM used the bye week to install more of the offense and prepare for Troy. Head coach Bryant Vincent is not an idiot. He knew his team had no chance in Austin. As a gifted play-caller and brilliant offensive mind, he has transformed offenses at UAB and New Mexico and I’m expecting the same here.

Now, Gerad Parker definitely installed stuff for Troy and did ULM prep during their pseudo bye week against Florida A&M, but that was a 21-12 game in the fourth quarter and FAMU had settled for three red-zone field goals, so they moved the ball, but just didn’t finish off drives.

Troy may very well win the game, but I don’t think this version of the Trojans is going to win by margin very often. I’ve wanted to buy ULM this season and it worked out against UAB. This is one where I’m trusting my priors and also considering the current body of work, where Troy has disappointed.

Pick: Louisiana Monroe +7

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at North Texas Mean Green (-6.5, 68.5)

7 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

North Texas was a team that I isolated coming into the season that I wanted to play on. Nothing has really changed my mind and they’ve been exactly what I thought. They’re a high-octane offense that is very hard to keep up with and the defense is a little bit improved. The Week 1 win over South Alabama looks a lot better now with what the Jaguars are doing and the 66-21 loss to Texas Tech got away very quickly with 21 points in 52 seconds.

Tulsa does not have a very good offense. Head coach Kevin Wilson just doesn’t have enough players. The Golden Hurricane only have 5.34 yards per play against FBS competition this season. They haven’t scored more than 24 points against a FBS foe and they’ve played Arkansas State and Louisiana Tech.

This is a spot to me where Tulsa just won’t be able to keep pace. The defense has played well against Arky State and LA Tech, but both of those teams have tons of offensive issues. North Texas QB Chandler Morris does have six interceptions and he’ll have to clean that up, but he also already has 11 TD passes. Tulsa has 13 offensive touchdowns and scored 62 points against Northwestern State.

UNT also has three running backs with over five yards per carry, so they can spread the rock around there as well. The high-scoring expectation here benefits North Texas and I don’t see them getting stopped very often.

Pick: North Texas -6.5

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