2023 College Football Rankings: Who overachieved and underachieved the most?
Courtesy of my T Shoe Index, I’m going to be taking a deep dive into the 2023 college football season to analyze which teams overachieved (or underachieved) relative to preseason expectations (TSI power rating) and hypothesize why a team’s rating ended up so much different than its preseason rating.
For instance, was it turnover luck? Facing teams that were dealing with key/multiple injuries? Or on the flip side, did the team have poor injury luck themselves, causing a nosedive in TSI rating? Today, I will provide an overview of the teams I’m going to cover in this series, and beginning tomorrow will highlight the teams one by one and provide more in-depth analysis of how we can use these findings to evaluate the futures market for 2024.
Teams Who Overachieved
Note: I’m sticking with Power Five or AAC teams for the deep dives, but my biggest movers were all Group of Five teams.
The Virginia Tech Hokies, who finished the season 7-6, well above the 3 or 4 wins I had them projected for, and went a profitable 8-5 ATS, indicating oddsmakers were also having a hard time keeping up with the rise of Brent Pry’s team.
Tyler’s Virginia Tech article.
The SMU Mustangs were a bit of a TSI darling all season, as it felt my model was a step ahead of the market on them all year, including making them a best bet in the AAC championship against Tulane, which they won outright despite being without QB Preston Stone.
Tyler’s SMU article.
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, who finished 7-6 and, other than a loss to another TSI darling in Bowling Green, had a very promising season under new coach Brent Key. The Yellow Jackets have been trending up since Key took over as interim coach in 2022.
Tyler’s Georgia Tech article.
2023 College Football Top Risers
| Team | Rating Change |
| Jacksonville St | 22.6 |
| Troy | 19.1 |
| UNLV | 16.3 |
| New Mexico St | 16.2 |
| Bowling Green | 16.1 |
| Texas State | 14.4 |
| Rice | 14 |
| Sam Houston | 13.2 |
| U Mass | 13.1 |
| Liberty | 12.6 |
| Miami (OH) | 12 |
| James Madison | 11.9 |
| VA Tech | 11.8 |
| FIU | 10.4 |
| New Mexico | 10.3 |
| SMU | 10.1 |
| Toledo | 9.8 |
| GA Tech | 9.7 |
| San Jose St | 9.7 |
| Oregon | 9.6 |
| N Illinois | 9.3 |
| Arizona | 9.2 |
| Duke | 9.2 |
| Northwestern | 9.2 |
| Hawaii | 9.2 |
| Wyoming | 9.1 |
| UTEP | 8.8 |
| Rutgers | 8.1 |
| Missouri | 6.9 |
| Oklahoma | 6.5 |
Teams Who Underachieved
What goes up, must come down, right? Baylor, Wake Forest, Wisconsin and Minnesota all saw more than a two touchdown drop in their power rating throughout the course of the season. Is it a sign of things to come or are these teams due for some positive regression in 2024?
These teams combined for just 20 total wins in 2023. Baylor announced coach Dave Aranda would return in 2024, in what feels like a “last dance” for him in Waco. Wake Forest lost QB Sam Hartman via the transfer portal so their demise was not as surprising. Wisconsin was transitioning into a brand new system with coach Luke Fickell bringing in Phil Longo to install the Air Raid offense, so they’re another team probably not down for long. In Athan Kaliakmanis, Minnesota thought it had a QB answer to losing Tanner Morgan, but that turned out not to be the case and led to a very underwhelming season from the Minnesota offense.
2023 College Football Top Fallers
| Team | Rating Change |
| Baylor | -16.1 |
| Wake Forest | -14.5 |
| Wisconsin | -14.5 |
| Minnesota | -13.9 |
| USC | -13.5 |
| Houston | -13.5 |
| Pittsburgh | -13.2 |
| Georgia | -11.5 |
| Miss State | -11.5 |
| Illinois | -11 |
| Michigan St | -11 |
| Kent State | -10.8 |
| Fresno St | -10.7 |
| Utah | -10.3 |
| BYU | -9.4 |
| Marshall | -8.9 |
| Tennessee | -8.5 |
| Arkansas | -8.2 |
| TCU | -8 |
| Texas Tech | -7.9 |
| Vanderbilt | -7.8 |
| Florida | -7.7 |
| Alabama | -7.5 |
| UTSA | -7.5 |
| Arizona St | -7.4 |
| Kentucky | -7.3 |
| E Michigan | -6.8 |
| UCF | -6.3 |
| Temple | -6.3 |
| UAB | -6.2 |
| S Carolina | -6 |
| Clemson | -5.9 |
Stay tuned at VSiN.com for the next couple weeks as I dive deeper into these teams and provide context around what may have happened with these teams’ seasons to identify regression candidates to bet on or against in the 2024 futures market, even before my preseason TSI ratings and projections come out, which will feature projections on every college football game of the season and win totals for each team you can use to pad your futures portfolio.
