Buffalo vs. Ball State
We’re all getting some MACtion on Hump Day this week, as six of the conference’s 13 teams take the field. It is a big day for Buffalo and Toledo, who both entered the week 4-1 in conference games. For the others, playing spoiler is cool, but so is reaching bowl eligibility. That won’t happen for Sacramento State or Ball State (probably), but Central Michigan is 4-5 and UMass is 5-4, so those teams have something to play for. The Minutemen haven’t gone bowling as a FBS member, dating back to 2012, and haven’t played a postseason game since 2007.
It’ll take a pretty big upset over Toledo to get there this week, but Joe Harasymiak’s team would like to get that sixth win sooner rather than later. Central Michigan is a heavy favorite to get on the doorstep of bowl eligibility, while our shortest line comes from Muncie, where Buffalo vs. Ball State takes place.
Odds from Circa Sports as of November 9, 7:00 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 11 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Buffalo (-2.5, 51) at Ball State
Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Good on the conference for being a trendsetter with these weeknight games way back when, but maybe starting all three of them at 7:30 on Wednesday night is a trend to avoid. I don’t actually feel that strongly about any of these games, so I’m just going by network hierarchy and ESPN2 wins out over ESPNU and CBS Sports Network.
The Bulls are on a heater right now, as Pete Lembo’s boys have reeled off four dubs in a row, topping Toledo, UMass, Bowling Green, and Miami (OH). There are two solid wins in there over the Rockets and RedHawks and both of them came on the road. Sophomore QB Jason Wright had his biggest game of the season when his team needed it, as he threw for 358 yards on just 22 completions with a couple TDs and a couple of picks. He only completed 47.8% of his passes and is below 50% for the season, but he was able to create some explosive plays.
For all intents and purposes, Buffalo stinks on offense. The Bulls entered the week 133rd in yards per play. But, Central Michigan (124th), Bowling Green (130th), Eastern Michigan (132nd), Kent State (135th), and Sacramento State (137th) provide some conference company in that department. It should also be said that Buffalo was terrible in non-conference play with 4.19 YPP, but has a more respectable 5.08 YPP in MAC games.
It should also be mentioned that Buffalo has arguably the top special teams in the conference, as Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings have the Bulls 61st in that department. That is the best mark in the conference per his numbers, hardly a surprise with Lembo, who has been a special teams coordinator in his career.
The Bulls were a wreck defensively in non-conference play, surrendering 6.36 YPP. In MAC games, they’re down to 5.06, so they do have a positive yards per play differential, albeit slightly, in conference action.
Ball State has been better in yards per play on both offense and defense, but their 5.64 YPP with the ball come in a little lower than their 5.79 YPP without it. SMU and Texas State transfer Keldric Luster has a 10/6 TD/INT ratio with a 63% completion rate and Jalen Bonds, who missed time in early October, had 17 carries for 132 yards last week against UMass. Bonds had the go-ahead TD in overtime, but Brody Boehm missed the PAT and UMass successfully kicked theirs for a 31-30 win, otherwise we’d be talking about a Cardinals crew that has won three in a row.
I prefer Over 51.5 to anything else in this game. Both teams have played a lot of close games, including some overtime contests recently. But, there are some decent running backs here and both offenses have been much better against MAC defenses than they were earlier in the season.
Pick: Over 51
Other Wednesday Games
Sacramento State at Central Michigan (-18, 43.5): Alonzo Carter has done quite a job the last two weeks at home, as the Hornets beat Kent State 31-10 and gave Toledo everything that the Rockets could handle in a 20-17 loss. Unfortunately, now they are back on the road, where they’ve lost MAC games by 11, 28, and 17, plus a 46-point loss to Fresno State. Central Michigan isn’t really a team built to cover big numbers with a run-heavy offense and a mediocre defense, but it’s a tough spot for Sac State with the long travel to Mount Pleasant.
UMass at Toledo (-14, 52.5): This is a big ask of Toledo, no? While the game was played across the country, a three-point win over Sac State doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. The game prior, the Rockets beat Western Michigan 45-38. The offense for Mike Jacobs seems to be clicking well more often than not, but the defense has really dropped off from last season’s top-10 unit. Also, that 23-8 home loss to Buffalo is hard to overlook. On the UMass side, last week’s walk-off winner against Ball State ended a four-game skid. Ever since William “Pop” Watson got hurt, this team had been way different than the one we saw to open the season. I lean towards the Minutemen here, but this is hardly a strong opinion.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 11 games on our Pro Picks Page.
