The recent history of the Heisman Trophy suggests it’s become a quarterback’s award. Travis Hunter, a rare two-way superstar, broke the mold in 2024, but he’s the exception — only five non-quarterbacks have won since 2000. That trend has only intensified since college football’s NIL era officially kicked off in July 2021. Since NIL money started flowing openly, four of the last five winners have been quarterbacks.
There’s a newer wrinkle worth watching, though: three of the last four winners have been hired guns. Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Fernando Mendoza all won after transferring in from other power programs, and that’s a pattern to keep in mind entering the 2026 season.
One more thing to file away: the preseason betting favorite rarely actually wins. Depending on the book, CJ Carr and Arch Manning currently top the oddsboard. Both enter the new season with outrageous hype, and it’s warranted given what we saw from them last season. Still, if either one ends up hoisting the trophy, it’ll mark the first time since 2014 that the preseason favorite has won.
Considering all of that, let’s get into some picks to win the Heisman Trophy in 2026. Here are four of my favorites, but I’ll also mention that I’m closely monitoring Alabama’s quarterback competition between Keelon Russell and Austin Mack.
Darian Mensah, Miami (12-1)
Nobody’s raiding the portal quite like Mario Cristobal. With the help of offensive guru Shannon Dawson, Miami has landed Cam Ward, Carson Beck, and now Mensah in the portal era. The Hurricanes helped Ward become the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, as he was undeniable after throwing for 4,313 yards with 39 touchdowns and only seven picks in his final college season. Beck didn’t go in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft, but he was picked in the third after throwing for 3,813 yards and 30 touchdowns. Now it’s Mensah’s turn to go to work in this quarterback-friendly system.
Mensah arguably arrives in Coral Gables as a more polished player than Ward and Beck were at the same stage. Last season, despite being surrounded by underwhelming talent, Mensah threw for 3,973 yards with 34 touchdowns and only six interceptions. He also posted a PFF passer grade of 85.0. Mensah is extremely dangerous throwing to every part of the field, makes big-time throws in the face of pressure, and has played in some massive games. He’s the total package.
Mensah now gets to play for one of the biggest brands in football, and he’ll be surrounded by weapons. Malachi Toney was one of the best players in college football last season, Cooper Barkate was Mensah’s top receiver at Duke, and Miami has high hopes for 6-foot-4 sophomore Joshua Moore. Mensah will also be working behind a better offensive line than he had in either of his previous two college seasons.
There’s a real chance Mensah puts up ridiculous numbers for a Hurricanes team that should win double-digit games and reach the College Football Playoff. That makes him the best of the chalkier options when you’re looking at the Heisman Trophy odds.
John Mateer, Oklahoma (25-1)
It’s a little surprising to see Mateer available at 25-1 odds. Early last season, Mateer looked like he was on his way to winning the Heisman Trophy. Through four games, he was putting up absurd numbers as both a thrower and a runner. But a broken thumb on his throwing hand changed everything. Mateer came back and threw three interceptions against Texas on October 11, and it felt like he was never the same quarterback afterward.
Mateer enters the 2026 season at full strength. That means he should hit the ground running, even with Oklahoma playing a difficult schedule. Mateer is back in Ben Arbuckle’s offense, which he’s mastered at this point. He also has an excellent group of pass-catching options and should be operating behind an improved offensive line.
Rushing upside has always mattered when it comes to this award, and that gives Mateer something other candidates don’t have. Two years ago, Mateer rushed for 826 yards and 15 touchdowns for Washington State. He might not have that in him in the SEC, but his legs will still be a major factor for the Sooners.
With so many showcase games on the schedule — at Michigan, at Georgia, vs. Texas, vs. Ole Miss, vs. Texas A&M — Mateer has a real chance to rack up Heisman moments. Oklahoma just needs the slightest bit of team success to put him back in the conversation.
Marcel Reed, Texas A&M (30-1)
Reed didn’t receive any votes for this award last season, but he wasn’t far off from having a seat at the table. Reed threw for 3,169 yards with 25 touchdowns, rushed for 493 yards and six scores, and was the drink-stirrer for one of the best teams in college football. With another year of experience, things are likely to ramp up a little.
Texas A&M will have a new offensive coordinator in Holmon Wiggins, but he was the wide receivers coach and co-offensive coordinator last season. That means this offense shouldn’t change too much, and it’s one Reed is fully comfortable with. The Aggies don’t ask too much of him as a passer, but he’s capable of making most throws. There’s also room for improvisation, and that’s where Reed’s elite rushing ability shows up.
Reed is going to have a very good wide receiver group this season, with Mario Craver, a first-team All-SEC performer last year, leading the pack. He’s also going to have a large offensive line blocking for him. Reed just needs to cut down on his interceptions, as the 12 he threw in 2025 were unacceptable. Reed also happened to throw eight of those in his final five games, meaning he made his biggest mistakes in the biggest games.
With one more year of seasoning, and improved decision-making, Reed should make a real run at the Heisman. At the very least, a healthy Reed should make a strong early case, presenting opportunities to monetize a ticket later on. If Texas A&M can pick up a road win over LSU on September 26, there’s a good chance the Aggies will be 7-0 heading into a road game against Alabama on October 24.
Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma State (75-1)
Mestemaker led all of FBS in passing yards last year, throwing for 4,379 yards, 34 touchdowns, and nine interceptions in a masterful freshman season. He then decided to follow head coach Eric Morris from North Texas to Oklahoma State, where he’ll be playing alongside several of his former teammates.
Mestemaker will have to adjust to a significant jump in competition, facing strong Big 12 defenses after seeing nothing but soft AAC units. Still, Mestemaker should be able to handle it. He’s a future first-round pick playing behind a better offensive line, he has serious talent at the skill positions, and he knows this offense like the back of his hand.
It’s just hard to imagine this being anything but a massive season for Mestemaker, but grabbing him means hoping for some team success at Oklahoma State. That’s the main concern here. The Cowboys are going to be excellent offensively, but will the defense be able to get off the field? The lineup on the defensive side of the ball features only four players with starting experience, so new defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity will be banking on a bunch of unknown commodities.
Making the College Football Playoff isn’t a requirement for Heisman contention, but Mestemaker probably needs to win eight or so games to really win voters over. That might be unlikely in Year 1, but he’s worth a flier at 75-1.
