Houston Cougars:

Willie Fritz enters his first season as head coach of Houston, and his first season as the head man of a Power Four program. Fritz has a history of building programs, but the roster for Houston is thin this season. With 10 returning starters and new systems on both sides of the ball it could be a long season for the Cougars in Fritz’s first year.

Offense

Donovan Smith returns after starting all 12 games for Houston last season. Smith completed 64.2% of his passes last season, averaged 7.0 yards per attempt and threw 22 touchdowns. However, he regressed in a big way in the final five games of the regular season. Over that span Smith was the third-worst quarterback by PFF standards and threw six touchdowns while committing a turnover-worthy play on 4.2% of his attempts. He is the starter by default, but is hardly in command of the job.

 

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The biggest concern for the Cougars is the offensive line. They lost four starters from last season, one of those losses being perennial All-Conference left tackle Patrick Paul. Fritz brought in numerous transfers to bolster the group, but this is a massive concern heading into the season.

Skill positions are similarly thin, but there are some bright spots. All three leading running backs from last season return. Parker Jenkins averaged 4.7 yards per attempt and forced 27 missed tackles. He should have the reins to start the season. Wide receiver is a different story, but Fritz bolstered the position with transfers.

Defense

Five starters are back from a unit that finished 120th in opponent EPA per play in 2023. That could be a positive, but some of the losses were huge. 

Two All-Big 12 defensive linemen were among the losses, and that position was rebuilt in Fritz’s first offseason. Multiple bodies come in along the line from the transfer portal, but this is a brand new group. The same could be said of the defensive backfield, which lost four players who started four or more games last season.

Shiel Wood comes from Tulane with Fritz to run the defense. The Green Wave were 56th in EPA per play last season, and their run defense was among the best in the country. Wood will have this team schemed well, but given the lack of talent, bettors can expect another below-average defensive season from Houston.

Outlook

The future of Houston is bright, given Fritz’s history, but this season projects to be rough. Not only is the roster being completely rebuilt, but the schedule is brutal. The Cougars have to go to Oklahoma in non-conference play, then make road trips to Kansas and Arizona. They host Utah and Kansas State. Even Houston’s opener against UNLV is going to be a massive challenge. The Cougars could potentially steal one from any of the bottom dwellers on the schedule – Rice, Cincinnati, Baylor and BYU – but they would need to be near perfect in those contests to surpass the win total in the market.

Pick: Under 3.5 wins

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