Week 2 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans
Here are my Week 2 college football picks:
Oklahoma (-5.5) at Michigan
A few controversial stories have come out of Ann Arbor, Michigan the past few years and all have been crazy in different ways. Kyle Whittingham was brought in to clean up the mess, but the veteran coach found himself in the middle of the latest Michigan football scandal last weekend.
Whittingham was an innocent bystander in the eye of the storm when the Wolverines were gifted a second chance at a Hail Mary and snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. A bizarre video review and highly questionable clock change launched conspiracy theories aimed at the officiating crew and the Big Ten, which was targeted with cheating accusations. The bottom line is Western Michigan’s apparent 12-7 win was overturned and became a 13-12 miracle in favor of Michigan. The entire situation was unfortunate and unjust and raised serious doubts about the integrity of the game.
But we eventually move on and turn the page to the next game. A handicapper must ask how will Whittingham and the Wolverines deal with a week full of fan and national media negativity? Will the story be a major distraction or will Michigan’s coaches and players focus on fixing mistakes and quieting the critics?
The unranked Wolverines, suddenly dismissed as outcasts by angry Top 25 voters, host No. 11 Oklahoma on Saturday morning in an intriguing Big Ten-SEC battle. The betting public is making its vote clear as most sportsbooks report around 85% of the money and tickets are on the Sooners as road favorites.
On top of everything else, Bryce Underwood, the $12 million sophomore quarterback who completed the winning 47-yard touchdown throw, is in jeopardy of being benched following his otherwise poor performance.
It’s obvious there are not many reasons to like Michigan’s chances, but that’s also a reason to be attracted to the Wolverines. The ugly home underdog is the contrarian side and, coupled with a 7-point line move, some of us find these angles irresistible.
Michigan’s defense is more than solid, allowing only 221 total yards to the Broncos, and the offense has the ability to run the ball in a grind-it-out type of game. Sooners coach Brent Venables has an elite defense and the superior quarterback in John Mateer. Oklahoma was impressive in a 51-0 victory over hapless UTEP, yet its offensive line has problems and its running attack appears pedestrian.
It looks too easy to play the favorite, so I’ll make the tougher bet and take the points.
Best Bet: Michigan +5.5
Arizona at Brigham Young (-7.5)
I’m higher on the Cougars than most handicappers and my opinion has a lot to do with BYU being one of the most experienced teams in the country. Bear Bachmeier passed for three touchdowns and ran for one as the Cougars crushed Utah Tech 63-7 in what was essentially a scrimmage. A year ago in Tucson, BYU beat Arizona 33-27 in double overtime. The Wildcats want revenge and they are a threat behind senior quarterback Noah Fifita. I prefer the favorite in Provo, but the points are too many to lay, so I’ll try something I rarely do in college betting and use this as one leg of a six-point teaser.
Best Bet: BYU -1.5 with Boise State -2.5 on a six-point teaser.
Memphis at Boise State (-8.5)
The Tigers opened eyes with a season-opening 27-21 upset at UNLV. Memphis is legit and led by quarterback Marcus Stokes, running back Jaylin Carter and a dominant defensive front. The Broncos were surprisingly strong in a 34-27 loss at No. 2 Oregon. Boise has a physical offensive line, a veteran quarterback in Maddux Madsen and a dynamic running back duo in Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines. I trust the Broncos to get the win but not enough to lay the points in a matchup with early CFP implications.
Best Bet: Boise State -2.5 with BYU -1.5 on a six-point teaser.
Mississippi State (-1.5) at Minnesota
It’s not the sexiest SEC-Big Ten duel this weekend, but it should be entertaining and high scoring. The Bulldogs dropped 62 points and 762 total yards on Louisiana-Monroe as quarterback Kamario Taylor accounted for 354 passing yards, 59 rushing yards and five touchdowns. The Golden Gophers annihilated Eastern Illinois 59-7 behind quarterback Drake Lindsey and star running back Darius Taylor. Minnesota might be a little underrated and usually is a tough home dog for coach P.J. Fleck.
Best Bet: Minnesota +1.5
San Diego State at UCLA (-12)
I’m a big believer in the Bruins and new coach Bob Chesney, so much so that I bet UCLA as a short road favorite last week at Cal and will make a rare play on a double-digit favorite here. Chesney and his coaching staff built a talented roster and it showed in the 45-24 win a week ago. It’s more difficult to believe in the Aztecs, who have a totally rebuilt defense that allowed 20 points and 375 yards to Portland State.
Best Bet: UCLA -12
North Dakota State (-1.5) at Air Force
In their first Mountain West matchup, the Bison will be challenged to contain the Falcons’ triple-option attack. Air Force rushed for 431 yards, yet passed for only 19 yards, in a blowout of Duquesne. The Bison run the ball effectively and senior quarterback Nathan Hayes can throw it, which he proved in lopsided wins against Jacksonville State (33-7) and Fordham (38-0). While the Falcons are off of back-to-back losing seasons, all North Dakota State does is win.
Best Bet: North Dakota State -1.5
Ohio State at Texas (-1.5)
A year ago, Arch Manning failed to live up to the hype and flopped as the Buckeyes beat the Longhorns 14-7. It should be a totally different game this time in Austin, mostly because Manning has more experience and plenty of weapons to help him move the ball against an Ohio State defense that lost lots of NFL talent. The Buckeyes are rarely underdogs and maybe they are miscast in that role, but this is a double-revenge situation for Texas. Ohio State’s offense is guaranteed to be explosive with quarterback Julian Sayin pulling the trigger while supported by receiver Jeremiah Smith and running back Bo Jackson. These teams put a combined 115 points on the board last weekend, so I’m more confident in the total than picking a side.
Best Bets: Ohio State-Texas Over 49.5; also, Ohio State +7.5 with Hawaii -1 on a six-point teaser.
New Mexico State at Hawaii (-7)
Missing on the Hawaii practice field this week was quarterback Micah Alejado, who either has an ankle or foot injury and is questionable to play. His backup, freshman Bjorn Jurgensen, is decent yet inexperienced. Alejado has not done much in seven of eight quarters this season, and the Warriors never found the end zone in a 21-6 loss to UNLV last week. The Aggies feature a massive offensive line that could overpower the Hawaii defense, so laying points is risky business. Hawaii coach Timmy Chang desperately needs a get-right game or things will quickly go the wrong direction in Honolulu.
Best Bet: Hawaii -1 with Ohio State +7.5 on a six-point teaser.
Last week: 3-1-2 against the spread
For more college football Week 2 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 2 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
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