Week 3 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans
Blind dates can be disastrous. You have heard good things and have an idea what you’re getting into, but you don’t really know until you experience it and see everything. The first two or three weeks of a football season can be similar to a first date. The goal each year is to avoid disaster early, evaluate teams as thoroughly as possible and find a winning rhythm as a handicapper. Winning is never easy, but we know a lot more about these teams now.
Here are my college football best bets for Week 3:
LSU (-3) at Mississippi
Breakups are never easy. Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned — but in this case it’s a scorned fan base. Ole Miss fans are angry as hell and want revenge on Lane Kiffin for ditching the Rebels prior to the playoff and taking the LSU coaching job. Kiffin will be walking into the most hostile atmosphere imaginable Saturday night in Oxford, and you can bet he loves the attention and the hate. The drama Kiffin creates is annoying, but this Top 10 matchup is undeniably attractive.
In terms of gamesmanship, Kiffin made the first move Wednesday by listing quarterback Sam Leavitt as doubtful on the injury report. It was a surprising development that triggered an immediate line move from Tigers -3 to -1.5. Leavitt was upgraded to questionable on Thursday, when the line moved back to a field goal. Leavitt, a transfer from Arizona State with a history of injuries, has been shaky and threw three interceptions in the first half against Louisiana Tech last week.
The LSU defense has been rock solid, and Ole Miss star Trinidad Chambliss is arguably the best quarterback in the country at this point, so something has to give. Chambliss has completed 71% of his passes with five touchdowns and one interception. He runs away from pressure, makes dynamic plays and has an outstanding supporting cast with running back Kewan Lacy and receiver Deuce Alexander. Chambliss passed for 336 yards as the Rebels rolled up 488 total yards in a 41-38 victory over Louisville on Sept. 6.
The Ole Miss defense could be a weakness, and Kiffin gets the coaching edge, so I’m not going to argue the wrong team is favored. But when the superior quarterback is a home dog in an insane environment, I’ll take my chances and take the points. If it comes down to a kick, the Rebels’ Lucas Carneiro has a lethal long-range leg.
Best Bet: Mississippi +3
Kentucky at Texas A&M (-17)
The Wildcats are new and improved while being led by coach Will Stein, the former Oregon offensive coordinator, and quarterback Kenny Minchey, a Notre Dame transfer. Everything was looking good for Kentucky until a 17-13 third-quarter lead against Alabama turned into a blowout with the Crimson Tide scoring the final 32 points.
At about the same time last week, the Aggies turned a 24-20 fourth-quarter lead against Arizona State into a 48-20 runaway. The Sun Devils finished with a 369-255 advantage in total yards, yet Texas A&M’s defense produced two interception returns for touchdowns. A&M quarterback Marcel Reed runs hot and cold, and hopefully he stays cold. This is a lookahead spot for the Aggies, who play a much bigger game at LSU next week.
Best Bet: Kentucky +17
Colorado at Northwestern (-3)
Deion Sanders is 2-0, with a lucky win at Georgia Tech and a blowout of Weber State, but there should be doubts about Coach Prime’s team. A run-heavy offense has masked some of the deficiencies of inexperienced quarterback Julian Lewis. While the Purple Cats typically perform their best in the underdog role, it’s hard to resist Northwestern at this cheap price on the Chicago lakefront. Wildcats coach David Braun and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly had an off week to prepare following a 34-18 victory over South Dakota State. Northwestern’s defense did not resemble the Purple People Eaters (an old Minnesota Vikings reference for the kids out there) in the opener, but the Wildcats did rush for 224 yards. Braun and Kelly should have a significant edge against the Buffaloes’ coaching staff.
Best Bet: Northwestern -3
BYU (-18) at Colorado State
My high preseason rating on BYU appears justified — it’s early, of course, and we’ll find out a lot more when Notre Dame visits Provo on Oct. 17 — but this could be a tricky road trip against a well-coached underdog. The Cougars do not feature a quick-strike offense and they grind it out with quarterback Bear Bachmeier and running back LJ Martin. Bachmeier accounted for four touchdowns in a 28-17 comeback victory over Arizona.
The opposing quarterback, Hauss Hejny, could make this game interesting. For those who have not seen him yet, Hejny is a serious dual-threat talent. He has passed for 539 yards and nine touchdowns while running for 124 yards and one score in victories over Wyoming and Southern Utah. The Rams, scoring 46.5 points per game, look like a team on the rise for coach Jim Mora. BYU will likely grind out a win by 10 to 14 points.
Best Bet: Colorado State +18
Purdue at UCLA (-14)
New coach Bob Chesney was probably my favorite offseason hire and I backed the Bruins in their first two wins against California and San Diego State. UCLA is for real, but quarterback Nico Iamaleava has work to do. He does not have a touchdown pass yet and threw an interception in the end zone against the Aztecs. The Boilermakers’ quarterback, Ryan Browne, is playing at a higher level. Browne has completed 77.5% of his passes for 646 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in two games. He’s complemented by spectacular running back Fame Ijeboi (201 yards, four touchdowns).
Purdue is showing slow improvement for second-year coach Barry Odom, but his defense still has a long way to go. Iamaleava will get his first touchdown pass and UCLA running backs Wayne Knight (six touchdowns) and Anthony Woods will run all over Odom’s defense in what should be a high-scoring game at the Rose Bowl.
Best Bets: Purdue +14 and Over 51.5
Last week: 5-2 against the spread
Season: 8-3-2
For more college football Week 3 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 3 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
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