North Texas Mean Green:
North Texas had a flair for the dramatic in Eric Morris’ first season at the helm. The Mean Green went 5-7, losing by more than eight points just twice and winning by more than eight points just twice, once over a FBS team. “Can’t happen” losses to FIU and Navy really marred what was an interesting season otherwise, with losses by 7 to Tulane, 3 to Memphis, and 8 to UTSA. Those are competitive showings against the top of the AAC.
The Dudes of Denton have a new backfield of former TCU players as they look to replace a ton of lost production and hope that transfers help what was a downright awful defense last season.
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Offense
Morris can coach offense. North Texas had a 1,000-yard rusher in Ayo Adeyi and a 1,000-yard receiver in Ja’Mori Maclin. Unfortunately, both of them are gone, but a new transfer QB takes over for departed Chandler Rogers in the person of Chandler Morris, who was a part-time starter for the Horned Frogs each of the last three seasons and was originally recruited to Oklahoma.
Morris brings a 16/5 TD/INT ratio into this Air Raid offense and old teammate Zach Evans comes in after two seasons at TCU, one at Ole Miss, and one on the sidelines injured at Minnesota. He’s one yard shy of 2,000 for his career and has run for 6.9 yards per carry. Morris’s scheme will create new pass-catching options to make up for the loss of Maclin and two others with over 400 yards last season.
Defense
But, North Texas’s ceiling will be defined by the defense. The Mean Green gave up 152 points in their five wins last season. They gave up 293 in their seven losses. They held one opponent under 27 points. This was an objectively bad group. How bad? UNT had 6.53 yards per play on offense to rank 17th. They had a negative yards per play differential.
The Mean Green defense allowed 6.56 YPP and ranked 125th. They were the only defense in the nation to give up over 3,000 rushing yards. The next closest allowed 2,877. Takeaways were few and far between with 14 in 12 games and the 3-3-5 defense only had 18 sacks for 90 yards, the fourth-fewest sack yards in the nation. Tons of transfers are now in place, so we’ll see if gains can be made.
Outlook
“All gas, no brakes” for the North Texas team makes them hard to predict. If the defense can even get slightly better, the offense should eat and this could be a bowl team. Right now, I have 5.36 wins, but I think Morris might be building something decent here and the defenders now fit the scheme. I think they could be a slight overperformer and a team I adjust up in my Power Ratings.
Pick: Over 5.5 Wins
