Saturday College Football Week 5 Sharp Report

17

12 p.m. ET: Navy (1-2) at Air Force (3-1)

Both of these military academies are coming off victories. Navy just took down East Carolina 23-20, winning outright as 16.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Air Force just brushed aside Nevada 48-20, covering as 24-point home favorites. This line opened with Air Force listed as a 15-point home favorite. We've seen this line fall from 15 down to 14, signaling pro money grabbing the points with road dog Navy. The Midshipmen are only receiving 32% bets but 50% money, a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" bet split in their favor. Navy has value as a buy-low "bad" ATS team (1-2) against a sell high "good" ATS team (3-1). Navy also has correlative betting value as a double-digit dog with a line move in their favor in a super low total game (38). The under is only receiving 42% bets but 76% money, a massive sharp bet discrepancy toward a low-scoring game. Historically, military unders have been a smart bet due to both teams running the ball and chewing up the clock.

 

 

4 p.m. ET: Texas A&M (3-1, ranked 17th) at Mississippi State (3-1)

Both of these SEC rivals are coming off wins. Texas A&M just edged Arkansas 23-21, covering as 1.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Mississippi State just crushed Bowling Green 45-14, pushing as 31-point home favorites. This line opened with Mississippi State listed as a 3-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is unranked Mississippi State favored over ranked Texas A&M? Shouldn't it be the other way around? If it looks fishy, there's usually a reason for it. Only 49% of bets are backing Mississippi State but the Bulldogs are receiving 67% of money. This smart money discrepancy has driven Mississippi State up from -3 to -4, signaling pro money laying the points with the unranked home favorite. The Bulldogs hold a big edge on offense, averaging 37 PPG compared to 21 PPG for the Aggies. Texas A&M will be without leading receiving Ainias Smith due to injury. 

 

7:30 p.m. ET: NC State (4-0, ranked 10th) at Clemson (4-0, ranked 5th)

This ACC clash features a pair of ranked undefeated teams facing off. NC State just rolled UConn 41-10 but failed to cover as 38.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Clemson just edged Wake Forest 51-45 in double-overtime but failed to cover as 7.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Clemson listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with the higher ranked Tigers at home. However, despite 65% of bets taking Clemson, we've seen this line remain stagnant at 7 and even dip down to 6.5 at some shops. This signals a sharp line freeze and/or reverse line movement on the road dog, with pros jumping on NC State plus the points. NC State is only receiving 35% bets but 51% money, a 16% smart money discrepancy. NC State also has value as a contrarian conference dog in a heavily bet primetime game. Clemson holds the edge on offense (44 PPG vs 36 PPG), but NC State features the better defense (allowing 12 PPG vs 21 PPG).